Post by futurist on Oct 15, 2018 22:59:29 GMT
Russia probably annexes Outer Manchuria, and has a reduced or eliminate 1905 rebellion. Such a victory would definitely increase nationalistic feelings and most likely improve the general opinion of the Tsar, but the long term effects in terms of holding serious reform is debatable. Russian expansion/vassalage/general actions towards Korea depends on the degree of victory. IIRC, the Tsar mainly just wanted to make practically all of Northern Korea into a giant DMZ so as to provide a strong buffer for Russia’s newly acquired positions in Manchuria.
Japan’s growing prestige just got wrecked, and a victorious Russia is certainly going to lead to Anglo fears of increased assertiveness in places like Central Asia or the Black Sea basin, especially in light of the Dogger Bank incident. France would, in this eventuality, be stuck in the metaphorical rock and a hard place. They can either reaffirm their ties with the Tsar, or forsake them for building upon their 1904 agreements with the UK. Given the balance of power of this era, I suspect they (France) would align with the UK more (And this also means Japan). French capital is eliminated to Russia, severely impacting their industrialization efforts but allows the French to truly begin developing their colonies (A Trans-Sahara railway is extremely likely, maybe an early Kra Canal through Siam/Thailand?)
Shorn of its French connections, the Russians likely turn to the Germans for allies to firmly secure their European front and to acquire a new benefactor to assist in their modernization programs. This has OTL precedent, and the firm split with the French should be enough to have it achieved as per OTL. With Germany as a middleman and now the main supporter of both, the Austro-Russians are forced to work out their differences as the alliance begins to firm up. In essence, the Three Emperors League is restored with Italy attached. The Austro-Russian reconciliation helps to ease tensions in the Balkans, as radicals on all sides now realize they can’t effectively play the local great powers off against each other. When the ATL Balkan Wars play out, the situation gets resolved as fast and amicably as possible but no one is permitted to keep the festering sore open for long then needed.
In this ATL, World War I likely never happens due to both alliance systems being so firmly equal in a sense. Compared to OTL for example, a British blockade wouldn’t work due to the vast land connections Russia has to receive supplies as well as the fact there would be no shortage of men to keep on the farms since Russo-German armies won’t be slaughtering one another in the fields of Poland and Lithuania. On the flipside, Anglo-French naval might means they can seize all the colonies to secure their own economic well being and never suffer a blockade (Sans the U-Boat threat) imposed by their adversaries. An early Cold War based upon national ambitions combined with a hint of ideology (Liberal France and UK vs conservative monarchies of the Three Emperors) is likely to ensue, which will help technology and economic development. This will be further aided by the lack of two generations sent to the meat grinders, providing massive Human capital compared to OTL.
Globally, Africa remains colonies till the present day but the continent will be much more developed as the various Great Powers dump massive funds into them since they will be prestige projects in the Cold War. India will get dominion status, and is more developed as well. China, however, will remain fractured and far behind it’s OTL greatness since the various powers benefit from it remaining prostate. The ABC powers in South America, along with odds and ends such as Uruguay likely achieve First World status thanks to more capital for investment being in play. The USA still rises to become a major power, but without the World Wars to drain Europe dry, it’s more a first among equals things. I foresee the Philippines becoming a series of states, and thence developed as well plus maybe a few wars with Mexico. Culturally, the world is more European than American and also more conservative. Without the killing fields of Europe, atheism and socialism never really get the opening they received historically. Arguably it’s a better world in many ways, if you can look past things like continued Imperialism and such.