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Post by guyverman1990 on May 7, 2016 7:50:45 GMT
As long as Wahabis/Salafists don't take power. Bit late for that, boyo. Just take a look at Saudi Arabia. If you're talking specific the areas of land you've drawn as "the Sunni State", I'm going to assume you're referencing Daesh, in which case I think you need to look at both how all the neighbouring countries and the international community as a whole view its existence and control over the region, and the degree to which even the Iraqis themselves have been consistently rolling back ISIS control. Quite what they'll do when they reach the Syrian border I don't know, but it wouldn't surprise me if they keep going to preserve their own territorial integrity in the long-run. Given the mess that has resulted from any actual attempt by Islamists to implement their agenda in the region without some moderating factor to their "ideology", I think it's extremely unlikely that local populations will abide by the system - not to mention the international community. You slightly missed two things though - I think this "model" of the future of the Middle East is not going to come to pass in the first place, and secondly (perhaps most importantly), killing the Sunni State with fire and oil money on account of it having ugly borders is very much a joke Depends on whether or not the Saudi Dynasty collapses.
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Mathuen
Junior Member
马萨诸塞州, 中华人民共和国 (Trapped Yo)
Posts: 70
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Post by Mathuen on May 7, 2016 18:18:27 GMT
ISIS is an interesting creature, defined more by their adherence to their... interesting form of qutbism than borders, and more symptomatic of attempts at creating a coherent Islamic response to Modernism (which imho is impossible, Islam is far more fluid and diverse than the Islamists want to think, Islam will never develop one coherent modernism, but likely many competing forms, which honestly is bad for anyone arguing for some sort of qutbist caliphal view which is likely why they want to reject such a conclusion) than of traditional statebuilding or even terrorism.
With this in mind I think some recent events should be given focus RE the conflict with ISIS. Recently, as in like a week ago, Sheikh Abdulqadir Mumin was made the Wali of IS-In-Somalia. Although it was known that he fled the UK and gave bayah to IS in 2015 it was expected that he had died in Somalia some time thereafter, but apparently not. The establishment of an actual governorship in Africa is a bit concerning personally, as is the rise of formerly nationalist Islamists groups giving bayah to IS. With IS establishing actual centers of control and command in Africa, along with the connections and infrastructure needed to maintain connection between these African holdings and Raqqah the war against ISIS has just gotten much harder. Now, even if (more likely WHEN) Raqqah falls and both Iraq and Syria are liberated the war could go on for years to come as IS simply recoups elsewhere.
As an aside ISIS' actual numbers in 2016, even after losing 30,000 of their fighters*, is still likely stable at around 80-90,000 fighters, though given that they gain an average of 6,000 foreign fighters a year and with rising recruitment from their African Governorships (and the from Badw tribes in Iraq that they've done a great job mediating with, honestly better than we ever did) this will likely change in the future. What number ISIS will reach before they finally start to crumble globally I can't tell, though if they reach 150,000 fighters at their height I wouldn't be shocked.
*Not that I even trust out casualty and fighter estimates regarding ISIS anymore. This is basically Vietnam tier number fudging at this point, especially when if you take the US numbers at face value we've already killed all of ISIS twice over by now. There's a reason why not even the most conservative of conservative estimates trust our numbers worth shit.
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Post by huojin on May 8, 2016 19:42:44 GMT
Depends on whether or not the Saudi Dynasty collapses. Hmm? Got some indication that they're about to collapse any time soon?
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Post by guyverman1990 on May 9, 2016 4:24:25 GMT
Depends on whether or not the Saudi Dynasty collapses. Hmm? Got some indication that they're about to collapse any time soon? Just look up "Fall of Saudi Arabia" on Google.
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Post by huojin on May 9, 2016 17:47:40 GMT
Hmm? Got some indication that they're about to collapse any time soon? Just look up "Fall of Saudi Arabia" on Google. Or, alternatively, you could make your case yourself. I'm not gonna go dumpster diving for you
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Post by Gog3451 on May 12, 2016 16:05:47 GMT
Syrian Kurds won't sign on with the KRG becuase they seem to perfer working with Assad to being under Barzani (who is consolidating power)
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Post by punkrockbowler805 on May 15, 2016 23:08:22 GMT
Yeah, if there is a Kurd nation by the end of this, it's probably just going to be the autonomous region in Iraq. Turkey ain't letting anyone leave and Syria will be a mess for a long time.
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Post by guyverman1990 on Jun 16, 2016 22:19:14 GMT
The End of World War I saw the breakup of nations like Imperial Germany, Austria-Hungary and The Ottoman Empire. Shift to 70 years later, following the Berlin wall, the world changed drastically over the next couple of years with the fall of the Soviet Union and all those post Soviet-states breaking away from Russia's control.
I feel that these are valid points as to why we can expect the current situation in the Middle East as a potential catalyst of massive changes over the next couple of years. It will be history repeating itself as it always has. Anyone agree?
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Post by MinnesotaNationalist on Jun 16, 2016 22:33:02 GMT
The End of World War I saw the breakup of nations like Imperial Germany, Austria-Hungary and The Ottoman Empire. Shift to 70 years later, following the Berlin wall, the world changed drastically over the next couple of years with the fall of the Soviet Union and all those post Soviet-states breaking away from Russia's control. I feel that these are valid points as to why we can expect the current situation in the Middle East as a potential catalyst of massive changes over the next couple of years. It will be history repeating itself as it always has. Anyone agree? To some extent, yes, but I think a better comparison (I think I used this comparison earlier) is that ISIS is basically Nazi Germany sweeping over the Middle East, and America and Russia are going to come in and shift the borders in a Yalta-like conference, likely with quite a few members of the Middle East evolved as well.
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Post by guyverman1990 on Jun 18, 2016 1:00:49 GMT
Good news, it appears the Iraqi government has successfully recaptured Fallujah from ISIS. www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/iraq-pm-abadi-declares-victory-isil-fallujah-160617174259486.htmlEven after they are beaten in Iraq, I'm not sure about things getting better in the long run. I mean, the primary force other than the Kurds who are fighting ISIS in Iraq are Shiite militias backed by the Shiite-dominated government. After this whole fiasco is done, their discontent for Sunni Muslims might be solidified and the regime might be inspired to be even more oppressive to its local Sunni populace.
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Post by Kubo Caskett on Jun 18, 2016 18:42:27 GMT
Good news, it appears the Iraqi government has successfully recaptured Fallujah from ISIS. www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/iraq-pm-abadi-declares-victory-isil-fallujah-160617174259486.htmlEven after they are beaten in Iraq, I'm not sure about things getting better in the long run. I mean, the primary force other than the Kurds who are fighting ISIS in Iraq are Shiite militias backed by the Shiite-dominated government. After this whole fiasco is done, their discontent for Sunni Muslims might be solidified and the regime might be inspired to be even more oppressive to its local Sunni populace. I guess that means ISIS might die out by the end of this year; while it's good news (and gladly appreciate it) this might mean that ISIS might not take over the spotlight of the great "timeless" big bad organization the Nazis had for over 83 years in pop culture. Such a shame too, I'm quite getting quite tired of dem wacky Nazis.
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Post by guyverman1990 on Jun 18, 2016 19:54:32 GMT
Good news, it appears the Iraqi government has successfully recaptured Fallujah from ISIS. www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/iraq-pm-abadi-declares-victory-isil-fallujah-160617174259486.htmlEven after they are beaten in Iraq, I'm not sure about things getting better in the long run. I mean, the primary force other than the Kurds who are fighting ISIS in Iraq are Shiite militias backed by the Shiite-dominated government. After this whole fiasco is done, their discontent for Sunni Muslims might be solidified and the regime might be inspired to be even more oppressive to its local Sunni populace. I guess that means ISIS might die out by the end of this year; while it's good news (and gladly appreciate it) this might mean that ISIS might not take over the spotlight of the great "timeless" big bad organization the Nazis had for over 83 years in pop culture. Such a shame too, I'm quite getting quite tired of dem wacky Nazis. Realistically I'd say that ISIS another 2 years before an actual military defeat in the region.
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Post by Oceano on Oct 17, 2016 7:53:48 GMT
Is it possible that if the Civil War in Syria drags on any longer, some of Assad's top generals would become disgruntled to the point of wanting to go take matters into their own hands and perform a coup? I think that's improbable, because the government is mainly staffed by Alawites and other minorities. The Alawites are big on loyalty among themselves.
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