Excerpt from - The Presidents: Clinton II – Hillary Rodham
The House was still in Republican hands, and so despite her clear victory over Trump, and the Democratic takeover of the Senate, there was little reason to think the gridlock of the last 6 years of Obama wouldn't continue. But no one counted on the dysfunction of the Republican Party reaching new heights.
The election had trimmed the GOP House margin considerably, from 247-186 to 226 – 209. The reduced margin gave the party scant room to maneuver, and when several Freedom Caucus members began to announce they would not vote to reelect Paul Ryan as speaker, things began to unravel....
… and so the “Grand Coalition” was formed, with Republican Speaker of the House David Valado placed in power with more Democratic votes than Republican ones. This lead to a much friendly House than everyone thought Clinton would face, at least until the midterms. This was a House that was able to extend the debt ceiling without issue and generally function as a actual body government. Most significantly of course, was the passing of comprehensive immigration reform, complete with a path to citizenship. Unfortunately any attempt to approve upon Obamacare and reduce its costs to consumers, or to increase the minimum wage and offer any meaningful relief to the working poor, were still blocked...
The 2018 midterms saw the GOP retake the Senate and extend their House majority. The election brought in a new wave of conservative populists. The old House leadership of Valado was swept away to be replaced by new Speaker Jim Jordan, marking the capitation of the GOP House membership to the Freedom Caucus. Clinton and the new Congress could find very little agreement and failed almost every time to reach compromises. Jordan brought back the old debt ceiling battle and when Clinton found the Republican position unacceptable (large cuts to government funded health care, education, and scientific research), this led to not only a government shutdown but a debt default as well. The default sent the already weakening economy into a recession and a led to a major downgrade of the U.S. Federal Government's credit rating. When the shutdown still continued with no sign of ending, Clinton resorted to the minting of a trillion dollar coin. Mocked at the time, most now consider it a move that prevented a global depression...
Excerpt from - Holy War: The Fight for the GOP's Soul
After Trump's defeat in the 2016 election, the RNC thought long and hard about how Trump had become the party's nominee, and how they could prevent a similar person from winning in 2020. That the base did not necessarily endorse the flavor of Conservatism favored by the RNC and the big money donors had still failed to sink in somehow.
The RNC's conclusion, which was not without some merit, was that the large field of candidates, combined with the number of winner take all contests allowed Trump to win the nomination despite barely winning a majority anywhere until the race was decided. They realized that that was a result of how they had set up the primaries in an effort to end the race quicker. But given that their system had produced Trump, and long contests on the Democratic side (2008 and 2016) had not damaged their candidates in the general, a change was needed. Therefore the RNC mandated an end to winner take all states, insisting on proportional models, with delegates awarded both by distinct and at large, and the state parties all adopted these measure*. In addition, although still not to the level that the Democrats had, the RNC effectively introduced super delegates by unbinding the 3 delegates every state received automatically for their state committee members....
Trump's nomination had shattered the already weakening bonds holding the different Republican groups together. The party, at least since the Reagan years, had often been expressed as a coalition of 3 groups: religious conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and neoconservatives (foreign policy hawks). George W. Bush had been the last to unite all the groups. McCain's and Romney's inability to appeal to religious conservatives had hindered their clinching of the nomination, but they had climbed back on board for the general. And the groups were generally united in the fact that religious conservatives had adopted fiscal conservatism and they had both adopted neoconservative positions on foreign policy (except when the party's foreign policy was to be against whatever a Democratic president was doing).
But Trump exposed the fact that many self-described religious conservatives did not care as much about abortion, gay rights issues, or even a candidate's personal faith commitment as they did about anti-immigration or anti-Muslim sentiment. Trump also demonstrated that many in all of the groups did not hold to the fiscal conservationism of the party donors if it meant their social security or Medicare was threaten (something the Democrats had been trying and failing for decades to exploit), let alone their free trade stance. Trump also brought the parties' latent paleoconservatist isolationism back, as although hawkish (often in the extreme) Trump proved you could be such while still turning your back on the world. And all this is without even mentioning the coded racism that Trump brought forth unvarnished, fueled by white America's sense of its decline...
In the past the GOP candidates came from one of the three conservative groups (religious, fiscal, neo) along with an establishment/outsider axis, and they sought to win over the other groups. But Trump's shattering of the tri-conservative picture had left the party in smaller blocs. This was covered over in 2018 by the Republican wins, united only in the sense of being anti-Clinton and willingness to vote in midterms. The disruption was still there however, when it was time for the 2020 presidential primary and the fight for the party's soul. The many splinters produced many candidates, more even that the mocked 2016 cycle...
* - ok, all the states going along with anything is the most unlikely thing to happen in this timeline.
Ranking the “Republican” Hopefuls in Terms of Likeliness to Win the Nomination
The Republican field is even more crowded than last cycle, when all the liberal comedians passed clown car comments off as high wit. As of today, there are 31 declared candidates for the GOP that are being declared “serious”. Like Mark Everson last cycle and Sol Invictus in this one, many have failed to clear that hurdle. Although a ranking list is lazy, unimaginative, and pedestrian, my editors assure me that millennials will just eat it up, so without further ado... 31. Cliven Bundy – It's hard to see why he's a “serious candidate” and Sol Invictus is not frankly. The previous sentence should not be construed as a compliment to Mr. Invistus.
30. Joe Walsh – The first to declare himself for the race, this former Representative and failed radio talk show host offers nothing in the way of accomplishment to recommended himself for the job.
29. Cory Gardner – Who?
28. John Bolton – Is trying to revive the Benghazi scandal. Also no one likes him.
27. Rick Santorum – Rick... Accept that we just aren't that into you. Or want to be. Seriously.
26. Ken Cuccinelli – Unpopular enough in Virginia to get a Libertarian to 7% of the vote, he would appear to have little chance.
25. Charlie Baker – An businessman ex-governor of Massachusetts? It's not going to happen. It's not 2012 anymore.
24. Scott Brown – The former Senator would in many ways seem like a great candidate, even with the failed harassment charges still being used to smear him. But, as with Baker, it's hard to see Republican voters going for a Massachusetts moderate.
23. Joe Arpaio – It'll somewhat be an upset if he just lives through the campaign. The self-described “America's Toughest Sheriff” will attempt to ride a tough on crime and immigration stance. Which could work, if it were someone else.
22. Bob Corker - The Senator from Tennessee is a competent and conservative man, but has little to distinguish him from the field.
21. Ben Sasse – An otherwise standard conservative, perhaps best known for not endorsing Trump and surviving his next primary when Trump funneled millions into Super PACs against him. But hard to see him getting far in this crowded field.
20. Ted Nugent – I wish this was a joke, but he has a chance to pick up parts of the Trumpian anti-establishment voters and the pro-marijuana crowd. It seems unlikely in the extreme he is disciplined enough for a long campaign, but he ranks higher than some people might think.
19. Jan Brewer – The fairly successful ex-Governor of Arizona has yet to find a base and has taken criticism for her tax increase.
18. Louie Gohmert – The Texas Representative and Freedom Caucus member is going with the old “I'm the most true conservative” angle, though not getting anywhere. Maybe he should help actually pass a budget?
17. William Johnson – Well after years of the Democrats calling Republicans fascists and racists we finally have one running (and thinks to court decisions stemming from the Democrat's racism, we can't even kick him out). But the marginalization of white males under Clinton and Obama has given him an opening, to campaign for a while anyways.
16. Nikki Haley – An ex-governor, woman, and an ethnic minority, but that combination is done better.
15. Daniel Tosh – I wanted to write him off, but as a party that venerates a b-list actor and nominated a reality TV star, perhaps a comedian would not be out of the question. His strong condemnation of PC culture and the chilling effect it has on freedom of speech, along with his mocking of the “I'm offended culture” have seen him polling well. Would be higher if not for the small issue that he is ineligible for the presidency.
14. Allen West – Has gained a following with the base, though it remains to be seen is he's more than the token black conservative choice that bombs out early. His harsh rhetoric of Clinton's “treasonous” Middle Eastern policy keeps him in the news cycles.
13. Rick Scott – The Skeletor looking ex-governor of Florida has struggled to gain traction, as has almost everyone to be fair. His proposal for an 17% flat tax does not seem likely to change that. 12. Joni Ernst – A base darling, I just don't believe that men will support a woman whose most famous comment is about castration.
11. Scott Walker – A retread, the Ex-Wisconsin governor will have to show us much more than last time to get play in this field swamped by Midwest governors.
10. Mitch Daniels – The most competent ex-governor of Indiana in the race is sadly being seen as too moderate by voters who confuse reasonableness with weakness. Here's hoping his innovative proposal of replacing welfare with a negative income tax will earn him a higher place in the polls.
9. Bruce Rauner – The Illinois governor would seem to have a great shot at winning the general election. Too bad the primary comes first. The Religious Right questions his pro-life commitment and the big donors are still upset about his support for the minimum wage increase.
8. Susan Collins – The pro-choice Senator from Maine is leading the charge for Republican moderates. In a field filled with conservatives of all types, just maybe there is a way forward for her. But probably not.
7. Ted Cruz – It's doubtful voters will forgive his betrayal of Trump a the convention. However, he has name recognition, a block of support form 2016, and some appeal to base voters.
6. J.C. Watts – A surprising entry from someone most thought was done with politics. The former member of House party leadership had a history of great service to the country and the party and his attempt to relaunch “compassionate conservatism” has made waves. It remains to be seen just how his vocal, though not grandstanding like Cruz, criticism of Trump will play in the primary.
5. Susana Martinez – She is a popular governor of a blue state, New Mexico. As a woman and a Latina she hits key demographic boxes. She is a 1st level candidate, but the base appears to be slow to warm to her, and she will no doubt be hit hard in the debates for her support of Common Core.
4. Justin Amash – Hyped as the true heir of Ron Paul (Sorry Rand), he at least has a base that should carry him through the debates and pre- actual voting stage of the contest.
3. Tom Cotton – He's like a discount version of Cruz, but without the baggage. Someone of that ilk will break through, and his loud, if not particularly principled, criticism of Democratic Presidents appear to have earned him that chance. 2. Mike Pence – The failed VP candidate is running nationally again because Indiana didn't want him back. Nevertheless his is a decent campaigner with ties to many parts of the party and high name recognition.
1. John Kasich – He is the principal, popular, and successful ex-governor of the most important swing state. Most importantly, he would have beat Clinton last time and prevented the Liberal Supreme Court. This time the voters will give get it right and we'll finally have a Republican back in the White House.
Voices from the Peanut Gallery:
“The Republicans heard that you like clown cars, so they put a clown car inside their clown car!” - Out of Date Liberal Comedian
“Polling responses were already down to dangerous levels, but 31 candidates? If someone does actually answer they never stay on the line long enough to hear all of them.” - Anonymous Polling Executive
“Please no one else declare, Please!” - John Barrasso, RNC Chairman (possibly apocryphal)
“I'm starting to worry about the state of polling,” Nate Silver, Stat God
“Nate Silver Says Polling is Dead! Reason 4 Will Shock You!” - Thousands of Internet Article Headlines, 2 seconds after previous quote.
Excerpt from - The Presidents: Clinton II – Hillary Rodham
With the recession and 40% approval rating, Hillary appeared quite vulnerable. Her grip on the Democratic Establishment never wavered however, and the feared progressive challenge in the primaries only came from no-hoper Tim Canova. There was a brief scare when it looked like Kanye West would run, but he decided against it, at least for the 2020 Democratic nomination. With the only other opposition perennial losers like Randall Terry and John Wolf, her path to renomination was essential unopposed.
The GOP picture was not as clear....
RCP Republican Primary Polling Average July 31st
Daniel Tosh – 6.4% Ted Cruz – 5.6% Mike Pence – 5.1% John Kasich - 4.8% Allen West – 4.7% Ted Nugent –4.7% J.C. Watts – 4.6% Justin Amash – 4.4% Susana Martinez – 3.2% Joni Ernst – 3.2% Tom Cotton – 3.1% Scott Brown – 3.0% William Johnson – 2.9% Scott Walker – 2.7% Susan Collins – 2.7% Rick Scott – 2.2% Cliven Bundy – 2.1% Nikki Haley – 2.0% Bruce Rauner – 1.7% Joe Arpaio – 1.6% Mitch Daniels – 1.4% Louie Gohmert – 1.3% Rick Santorum –1.2% Ben Sasse – 0.9% Charlie Baker – 0.7% Bob Corker – 0.4% Barack Obama – 0.4%* Vermin Supreme - 0.3% Jan Brewer – 0.3% Ken Cuccinelli – 0.2% John Doe – 0.2%* Sol Invictus – 0.2% Cory Gardner – 0.1% Joe Walsh – 0.1% John Bolton – 0.0%
Excerpt from - Holy War: The Fight for the GOP's Soul
The RNC failed to prevent the flood of candidates, but it shouldn't be overlooked how much more control they took over the process compared to the 2016 cycle. Besides the previously mentioned switch away from winner take all states, they also took ownership of the debate process instead of leaving it up to the TV networks. Not that that would always work to their benefit of course...
Faced with the field of 31 declared serious candidates, the RNC decided to hold a opening round of 3 debates that would each feature a randomly selected third of the candidates, giving everyone a chance to debate. Scheduled for three straight nights on Trump TV, the second and third debates were badly overshadowed by the events of the first....
WFAA 8, DFW – transcript of 10 o'clock local news
Jason Wheeler – “Good evening, I'm Jason Wheeler here tonight with Sonia Azad. Our lead story tonight is the Republican Presidential Debate at the University of Dallas.”
Sonia Azad – “And what a shocking debate it was Jason. We warn viewers that the following story includes language many may find offensive or inappropriate.”
*video footage start*
Voice-over guy - “The first of 3 sets of Republicans came to the University of Dallas, known for it's controversial Crusader mascot, today hoping their performance could separate them from the crowded field. But the debate was dominated by comedian Daniel Tosh.”
Sean Hannity - “Mr. Tosh, why are you even running when you are Constitutional ineligible for the office of the Presidency? Since that is the case, isn't it irresponsible to ask people to vote for you?”
Daniel Tosh - “Weren't you saying Obama wasn't eligible? Or was that just your TV network owner?”
*mixed laughter and boos from audience*
Daniel Tosh - “Besides, what people want is an outsider. It doesn't get anymore outsider than me. I will bring unprecedented change to the office.”
Voice-over guy - “But that unique defense is not what will be remembered from the debate, as Tosh went where no other debater had ever gone before.”
Mark Levin - “Mr. Tosh, what do you say to critics who have stated your comedy is often offensive? Specifically, to those who criticized you joking about rape, who say it is not funny and that it s offensive.”
Daniel Tosh - “Well, Mr. Levin, I believe in free speech and that no subject is too sacred to joke about. That sort of political correctness that says we can't even tell jokes, it has killed comedy, it is killing this country.”
*loud applause from audience*
Daniel Tosh - “And I object to the idea that Rape can't be funny. Like Mr. Santorum over there. Wouldn't it be hilarious if I ripped his pants off and held him down and then Mrs. Haley took her vibrator out and raped him in the ass, wouldn't that be hilarious? Wouldn't it?”
*audible gasps of shock from audience*
Voice-over guy - “the debate continued, though it is not certain if anyone paid any attention to any thing else.”
*video footage ends*
Jason Wheeler – “Well that happened.”
Sonia Azad – “And God only knows what will happen next. Now turning to the Cowboys search for a third string quarterback...”
Voices from the Peanut Gallery:
*Meme gif* “OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMG” “Oh no he didn't!” “Did I hear that right?” *Meme gif* *Meme gif* “Did Tosh just perform a double murder/suicide?” AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! “Well, I mean he has a point” “TBF, that might be funny since it's Mr. Frothy Mixture.” *Meme gif* “OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMG” “Hey guys, read my article! Democrat hopes to win Utah State Senate Seat 12.” *Meme gif* *Meme gif* “WTF?!” “WHAT” *Meme gif* *Meme gif* *Meme gif*
- Page 343 of Official American Politics Thread DCLXXVIII on a Political Chat site named for an off-topic discussion interest.
“Well there's no model for that” - Harry Enten, 538
This is comendable timeline to discuss, but "Grand coalition" in todays` increasingly radicalising politics sounds ASB.
HRC would appoint liberal supreme court justice, as well a bunch of federal judges. Congress shall continue to block her bills and budget, prolonging the sequestration, which has more devastating consequences for the Armed forces than any war could. Two new planned Ford-class aircraft carriers are canceled, military personal cuts continues.
The second problem with HRC presidency is her clear commitment to maintain/increase money/weapons/soldiers interventionist agenda of in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Ukraine, Georgia, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Azerbaydzhan, Venezuela, South China sea... Plan to supply "moderate" islamists in Middle East with antiaircraft (MANPAD) weapons results in several civilian planes being shot down, paralising airtravel between Europe and Gulf. This means more confrontations with BRICS (Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa), Iran, Iraq, North Korea.
Third problem is possible request of GOP controled state legislatures to convine a National Conference, which, if 26 states support, could change or even abolish the Constituion. (aka Newt Gingrich plan)
Threat of worldwide recession/depression is real, with China slowing down, Japan, UK and Eurozone in recession. Fall of dollar (15-33%) is likely, as is that of stockmarket. 8,6 years have passed from last recession and THAT is unavoidable (1929,1937,1946,1954,1962,1970,1979,1987,1994,2001,2009)
futurist: Good luck to you, MN!
Jan 17, 2019 5:10:51 GMT
MinnesotaNationalist: well, that was the most underwhelming jury duty ever. Came in one day, was told to go home, and now I'm told that I'm not needed anymore for this session.
Jan 23, 2019 4:26:12 GMT
ieph: I've been actually thinking of just spending my time here, gradually decreasing my presence in AH.com. But in the meantime, I'm spending my time reviving one of my old WIPs sadly lost to the sands of time (I guess)
Jul 23, 2019 11:24:08 GMT
ieph: In fact, I'm even thinking of reviving my wikibox TL right here.
Jul 23, 2019 20:21:52 GMT
jennysnooper87: If that's the case, would it be okay if I moved the TL from AH.com to this site?
Aug 21, 2019 1:53:59 GMT
railmotive: Checking out this website, seems quite nice.
Oct 23, 2019 22:35:16 GMT