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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Mar 23, 2018 3:03:49 GMT
The Balkans, where most of the conflicts had arisen which often leads to much bigger wars, such as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo leading to WWI, the brutal mass murders occurring during WWII in what was then the Independent State of Croatia, to the Yugoslav Civil War that split Yugoslavia apart. It often came under the influences of Byzantines, Western Romans, Hapsburgs, Hungarians, Bulgarians (First and Second Bulgarian Empire) to a lesser extent, the Russians, and the Ottomans, although France had a minor influence there and Britain also had some significant presence there, though mainly confined to being involved in Greek affairs.
However, was there a potential for the Balkans to come under the influence of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth? Granted that both Poland-Lithuania and Hungary had monarchs belonging to the Jagiellons, it might have been possible but the interests of both Polish-Lithuanians and Hungarians were divergent. Is there any possible chance that Poland-Lithuania could have exerted a more direct influence in the Balkans to the point where that region would be viewed as mainly the Commonwealth's playground?
Keeping the Hungarian branch of the Jagiellon dynasty alive might be a start, but the problem was that there was a double marriage between the Houses of Jagiellon and Hapsburg in the 1500s. Moreover, what would a Polish-influenced Balkan region look like? For instance, Serbia during the early 1500s had military figures who did play a role in the anti-Ottoman activities while serving the Hungarian kingdom. I can also imagine a Jagiellon prince or some Polish, Lithuanian or even Ruthenian minor noble who would have acquired the Serbian crown further down the road.
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Post by steve59 on Mar 23, 2018 12:00:49 GMT
The Balkans, where most of the conflicts had arisen which often leads to much bigger wars, such as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo leading to WWI, the brutal mass murders occurring during WWII in what was then the Independent State of Croatia, to the Yugoslav Civil War that split Yugoslavia apart. It often came under the influences of Byzantines, Western Romans, Hapsburgs, Hungarians, Bulgarians (First and Second Bulgarian Empire) to a lesser extent, the Russians, and the Ottomans, although France had a minor influence there and Britain also had some significant presence there, though mainly confined to being involved in Greek affairs. However, was there a potential for the Balkans to come under the influence of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth? Granted that both Poland-Lithuania and Hungary had monarchs belonging to the Jagiellons, it might have been possible but the interests of both Polish-Lithuanians and Hungarians were divergent. Is there any possible chance that Poland-Lithuania could have exerted a more direct influence in the Balkans to the point where that region would be viewed as mainly the Commonwealth's playground? Keeping the Hungarian branch of the Jagiellon dynasty alive might be a start, but the problem was that there was a double marriage between the Houses of Jagiellon and Hapsburg in the 1500s. Moreover, what would a Polish-influenced Balkan region look like? For instance, Serbia during the early 1500s had military figures who did play a role in the anti-Ottoman activities while serving the Hungarian kingdom. I can also imagine a Jagiellon prince or some Polish, Lithuanian or even Ruthenian minor noble who would have acquired the Serbian crown further down the road. I think the big problem is that the Balkans proper, which I think is basically that region south of the historical Hungarian kingdom, is so far away from the PLC heartlands. Their almost certainly to be more interested in events to the east, [Russia] north [possible threats from Sweden or Denmark] and west [the HRE and the Papacy]. The state would need a lot more stability and coherence in its monarchy and reasons to consider no real threat or opportunities in other directions for it to look that far south. Possibly the big issue might be, if a permanent union with Hungary was established, making it say a PLHC? Then the threat from the Ottomans becomes more important to the state and there is a clearer basis for exerting a lot of effort that far from its core territories. Whether this could prevent the fall of Hungary and possibly start driving the Ottomans out of the Balkans would require some effort and a lack of threats from elsewhere. There is the other problem that while the PLHC would be overwhelmingly Catholic the vast bulk of the Balkan states and populations - other than Muslim incomers - are Orthodox in religion and have historical as well as practical reasons to mistrust Catholics. As such the area could see a lot of conflict between any 'Poles' and the local population as well as the Ottomans. Furthermore a state that was getting so large and powerful would be likely to incite concern from most/all its neighbours so its unlikely to be allowed to continue pushing south indefinitely. Not to mention the clashes with Venice and possibly other Italian maritime powers over their interests in the eastern Med if the PLHC gets near the Adriatic let alone the Aegean. While of course anything near to Constantinople itself is not only going to be bitterly opposed by Ottomans and Greeks but likely to prompt concerns from Russia. As such I can possibly see such a union including most/all of the historical Hungarian kingdom but probably not much further. More likely to take a defensive role against the Ottomans and be looking for expansion elsewhere. That would be my thoughts anyway.
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Mar 24, 2018 6:08:33 GMT
So in this case Poland-Lithuania would have been better off propping their Hungarian ally as a bulwark against the Ottomans.
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Post by steve59 on Mar 24, 2018 13:28:56 GMT
So in this case Poland-Lithuania would have been better off propping their Hungarian ally as a bulwark against the Ottomans. Propping up and possibly merging with but I suspect it would be a stretch pushing much further than that. This might also mean that the P-L part of the union or alliance could concentrate on clearing out the Crimean Tartars earlier, which would have removed a major problems for their eastern territories and possibly adding some new and relatively wealthy, agriculturally at least areas to their empire. I could be totally wrong but my gut feeling is that a PLH bloc would be about the largest you can get, both for logistical and command and control reasons and because too many neighbours would be too worried about what looked to be a developing monolith. [Albeit I think that much of this region was somewhat less developed and more thinly populated than comparative parts of western Europe or the Med. Could be totally wrong here working on the basis they were poorer several centuries later, which might be because of Ottoman and other onslaughts and the failure of both Hungary and Poland-Lithuania to maintain stability and internal peace in the face of those attacks.]
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Post by futurist on Oct 11, 2018 21:46:18 GMT
Does this have to be during the days of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth or can it be at a later time period? For instance, if there is no World War II, I could see Poland eventually having a larger and larger role in the Balkans due to its large population and growing prosperity. Plus, it might help that Poland is less populous than Germany and thus would probably be less inclined to try dominating the Balkans.
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Oct 15, 2018 23:46:15 GMT
Does this have to be during the days of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth or can it be at a later time period? For instance, if there is no World War II, I could see Poland eventually having a larger and larger role in the Balkans due to its large population and growing prosperity. Plus, it might help that Poland is less populous than Germany and thus would probably be less inclined to try dominating the Balkans. For later on, it would be at best a huge Intermarium that acts as a proto-EU. Logically, I would prefer during the PLC period.
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Post by futurist on Oct 16, 2018 5:06:27 GMT
Well, have Russia somehow be weaker and thus have Poland be the main sponsor of Pan-Slavism in the Balkans. Then, if the Balkans are still gradually liberated from Ottoman rule, Poland can turn these newly independent countries into its vassal states.
Heck, perhaps Poland could even eventually attempt a political union with Hungary and with these Balkan countries.
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Oct 21, 2018 19:52:25 GMT
Well, have Russia somehow be weaker and thus have Poland be the main sponsor of Pan-Slavism in the Balkans. Then, if the Balkans are still gradually liberated from Ottoman rule, Poland can turn these newly independent countries into its vassal states. Heck, perhaps Poland could even eventually attempt a political union with Hungary and with these Balkan countries. Russia without the lands of what became OTL Ukraine and Belarus would be a start, as they would have remained a part of the PLC. A renewed dynastic union with Hungary might also work, although dynastic relations between Hungary and the PLC would be similar to Hapsburg Spain's relation with the HRE.
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Post by futurist on Oct 27, 2018 0:17:48 GMT
Well, have Russia somehow be weaker and thus have Poland be the main sponsor of Pan-Slavism in the Balkans. Then, if the Balkans are still gradually liberated from Ottoman rule, Poland can turn these newly independent countries into its vassal states. Heck, perhaps Poland could even eventually attempt a political union with Hungary and with these Balkan countries. Russia without the lands of what became OTL Ukraine and Belarus would be a start, as they would have remained a part of the PLC. A renewed dynastic union with Hungary might also work, although dynastic relations between Hungary and the PLC would be similar to Hapsburg Spain's relation with the HRE. Poland and Hungary have a common border, though. In contrast, Spain and the HRE did not have a common border.
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