You Are Russian Tsar Nicholas II in 1893

[futurist]

What would you do if you were Russian Tsar Nicholas II in 1893?

As for me, I would:

-Not marry Alexandra. I don't want to marry someone who carries the gene for hemophilia (or who is at risk of carrying this gene, given 19th century medical knowledge).
-Immediately abolish the Pale of Settlement and various other forms of anti-Semitic discrimination. Also, encourage Jews to assimilate--for instance, by encouraging Jews to intermarry with Russians. Basically, I want to make Jews feel like they are a part of the larger Russian community--except with a different religion.
-Listen to smart people such as Sergei Witte in regards to economic policy. Also, continue to industrialize the country (Russia) as quickly as possible.
-Militarily intervene in Ottoman Armenia in the mid-1890s to stop the Hamidian massacres while publicly declaring that Russia is only interested in Ottoman Armenia and Trebizond and has no desire to capture the Straits in this war. Also, hope that this is enough to deter any of the other Great Powers from militarily intervening in this conflict against Russia.
-Look for easy opportunities for territorial expansion by making deals with various other powers. For instance, let Japan acquire some or all of Korea in exchange for a Russian free hand in Manchuria, Mongolia, and Xinjiang. I would especially like to annex Mongolia (including Inner Mongolia) and Xinjiang (Manchuria probably already has too many Chinese people for me to annex it). Also, offer to partition Afghanistan and Persia with Britain and publicly declare that Russia has no interest in British India since Russia only wants sparsely populated living space and not territories with an extremely massive population.
-Seek an agreement with Austria-Hungary over the Balkans. The Balkans are not worth a world war. Also, as much as I want to dismantle Austria-Hungary, I don't want to risk getting overthrown for this--and that is what might happen if I fight A-H and Germany militarily intervenes.
-Keep the alliance with France for security reasons and also to increase the odds of getting a lot of loans from France which could be used to help further develop and industrialize Russia.
-Focus a lot on railroad building and on things such as spreading electricity and modern technology throughout Russia. For instance, it would be extremely great if most rural peasants in Russia had electricity in their houses.
-Create a Duma (parliament) and work with it to improve the lives of the peasants (through things such as land reform) as well as the lives of the urban working class (for instance, by improving living conditions in the cities and by improving conditions in the factories). Also, nominally retain a lot of power for myself but let the Duma make a lot of the big decisions in regards to domestic policy. I would like a free hand in regards to foreign policy in order to try further expanding Russia, though.
-I was flirting with this but I'm not really sure about this--let any African-American who isn't a criminal and who wants to come to Russia do so. This would send a powerful symbolic message against the U.S.'s treatment of African-Americans and would bode well with my other humanitarian policies such as ending the Pale of Settlement and ending anti-Semitic discrimination.
-Implement universal suffrage in Russia in order to create a Duma which is actually representative of the wishes of the Russian people.
-Tell Serbia and Serbian government officials not to support or sponsor any terrorists. Also, tell Serbia that it is on its own if Austria-Hungary attacks it after a terrorist attack.
-Recruit skilled immigrants from all over the world to help Russia and the Russian economy develop.
-Aggressively encourage settlement and economic development in the eastern and southern parts of Russia in the hopes of making those regions much more prosperous, populous, and dynamic.

Anyway, what exactly am I missing here? Also, how exactly does all of this sound?

[steve59]

Jan 2, 2019 8:10:11 GMT futurist said:

What would you do if you were Russian Tsar Nicholas II in 1893?

As for me, I would:

-Not marry Alexandra. I don't want to marry someone who carries the gene for hemophilia (or who is at risk of carrying this gene, given 19th century medical knowledge).
-Immediately abolish the Pale of Settlement and various other forms of anti-Semitic discrimination. Also, encourage Jews to assimilate--for instance, by encouraging Jews to intermarry with Russians. Basically, I want to make Jews feel like they are a part of the larger Russian community--except with a different religion.
-Listen to smart people such as Sergei Witte in regards to economic policy. Also, continue to industrialize the country (Russia) as quickly as possible.
-Militarily intervene in Ottoman Armenia in the mid-1890s to stop the Hamidian massacres while publicly declaring that Russia is only interested in Ottoman Armenia and Trebizond and has no desire to capture the Straits in this war. Also, hope that this is enough to deter any of the other Great Powers from militarily intervening in this conflict against Russia.
-Look for easy opportunities for territorial expansion by making deals with various other powers. For instance, let Japan acquire some or all of Korea in exchange for a Russian free hand in Manchuria, Mongolia, and Xinjiang. I would especially like to annex Mongolia (including Inner Mongolia) and Xinjiang (Manchuria probably already has too many Chinese people for me to annex it). Also, offer to partition Afghanistan and Persia with Britain and publicly declare that Russia has no interest in British India since Russia only wants sparsely populated living space and not territories with an extremely massive population.
-Seek an agreement with Austria-Hungary over the Balkans. The Balkans are not worth a world war. Also, as much as I want to dismantle Austria-Hungary, I don't want to risk getting overthrown for this--and that is what might happen if I fight A-H and Germany militarily intervenes.
-Keep the alliance with France for security reasons and also to increase the odds of getting a lot of loans from France which could be used to help further develop and industrialize Russia.
-Focus a lot on railroad building and on things such as spreading electricity and modern technology throughout Russia. For instance, it would be extremely great if most rural peasants in Russia had electricity in their houses.
-Create a Duma (parliament) and work with it to improve the lives of the peasants (through things such as land reform) as well as the lives of the urban working class (for instance, by improving living conditions in the cities and by improving conditions in the factories). Also, nominally retain a lot of power for myself but let the Duma make a lot of the big decisions in regards to domestic policy. I would like a free hand in regards to foreign policy in order to try further expanding Russia, though.
-I was flirting with this but I'm not really sure about this--let any African-American who isn't a criminal and who wants to come to Russia do so. This would send a powerful symbolic message against the U.S.'s treatment of African-Americans and would bode well with my other humanitarian policies such as ending the Pale of Settlement and ending anti-Semitic discrimination.
-Implement universal suffrage in Russia in order to create a Duma which is actually representative of the wishes of the Russian people.
-Tell Serbia and Serbian government officials not to support or sponsor any terrorists. Also, tell Serbia that it is on its own if Austria-Hungary attacks it after a terrorist attack.
-Recruit skilled immigrants from all over the world to help Russia and the Russian economy develop.
-Aggressively encourage settlement and economic development in the eastern and southern parts of Russia in the hopes of making those regions much more prosperous, populous, and dynamic.

Anyway, what exactly am I missing here? Also, how exactly does all of this sound?

  Given a dramatic personality transplant Nickolas might try for all this but could cause a hell of a lot of internal discontent.  While it would gain support from the moderate reformers its going to deeply alienate the establishment, which is very powerful.  A number of the ideas would be useful but can see problems with others.

a)  While seeking to abolish discrimination against Jews would be useful antisemitism is deeply embedded in Russian culture at this point and has been a useful tools for diverting from the regime's failures so a 180 degree turn will upset and confuse a lot of people.  Also trying to encourage mixed marriages is likely to be bitterly opposed by both Orthodox Christians and Jews.

b)  A deal with Japan might well be possible but the sheer size of the Russian empire and its historical desire for expansion is going to cause doubts here and elsewhere.  Effective control over Manchuria would be handy, possibly if Russia does a separate deal with Japan after the latter defeats China in 1895 rather than siding with Germany and France to restrict Japanese gains.  Also of Outer Mongolia and possibly Xinjiang where a more tolerant approach to locals compared to imperial China could be popular locally.

c)  Would avoid partitioning Afghanistan and Persia as that would both give you difficult lands to control and also probably not be believed by the British.  Their much happy with a buffer against the Russian titan and the more intelligent won't want to partition such troublesome areas.  Also even if you can persuade them your serious about not being a threat they have to consider about what a future Russia might do, especially if your reducing the monarchy's power by introducing dramatic political reform.  [Not to mention that during this period Britain was being led to the elderly Victoria and the Tories under the aristocratic Lord Salisbury who was not a supporter of democracy so the latter would probably make him think you a total idiot at best.]

d)  An agreement with Austria-Hungary would be useful but there are suggestions that Vienna didn't keep the one that was made OTL.  Russia was supposed to get compensation - forget what off-hand - for accepting the annexation of Bosnia HG but the Austrians didn't follow through.  Also as Russia gets stronger and with an alliance with France and Germany getting more paranoid your likely to be at odds with both Berlin and Vienna.

e)  Its going to be a huge task getting electrification across the country and in a lot of rural areas its simply not going to be practical for the foreseeable future.  Even attempts to improve conditions for ordinary people in the main parts of Russia could face the problem of Potemkin village type situations being set up by figures in the government to pretend their achieving their targets.  After all the Czar is only a single person and needs to rely on the people around them for most of their information.  However a lot of infrastructure spending and working with a reformist Duma to improve conditions for ordinary people could help both political stability and economic development a lot.

f)  For the Afro-Americans see my reply elsewhere.

g)  Total universal suffrage, even if only for men is going to face both a lot of opposition from the establishment and the problems of a low literacy rate and very little knowledge of the wide world, or even of the rest of Russia by a lot of the new voters.  You face a potential problem of allowing demagogues a a lot of power and many will probably be political extremists from either end of the spectrum so you could have to take this a bit slower.  Probably need to get some educational system set up 1st and ideally keep it from being too dominated by the church.

h)  Don't know if you can afford to drop Serbia in such a circumstance, especially since the terrorist responsible for FF assassination were opponents to the Serbian government of the time.  Possibly a better option might be supporting Bulgaria after the 1st Balkan war, which would prevent the 2nd if successful.  Gives you a strong regional ally in Bulgaria - although going to make its neighbours more hostile but should keep Serbia on side if it gets compensation elsewhere.  Also a Bulgaria virtually on the outskirts of Constantinople, although it will make Britain nervous about your plans, is a great threat to the Ottomans.

i)  The Russians recruits a lot of skilled foreigners so that's pretty much as before but could probably be done more efficiently while you also want to leave plenty of room for ordinary Russians else your going to alienate a lot of people.  Especially the new intellectuals you will want to make your reforms possible.  Aggressively settling the south and east was being done but Siberia was unpopular for climatic reasons and the south means seeking to displace/outnumber the substantial Muslim populations which will not be popular with them so depends on how far you want to go here.  Are you talking about establishing a Slavic/Orthodox majority in much of the region, which with the Russian population growth rates at the time is possible but its likely to be bloody and could effectively result in widespread ethnic cleansing.

  However some good ideas here.  A lot of potential problems to consider but you could end up with a markedly larger Russia, especially in terms of population and economic development, becoming the primary rival to the US earlier and not folding like the USSR did OTL which would make for an interesting world.  [Hopefully not too much in the Chinese sense].

[futurist]

Jan 2, 2019 11:52:36 GMT steve59 said:

Jan 2, 2019 8:10:11 GMT futurist said:

What would you do if you were Russian Tsar Nicholas II in 1893?

As for me, I would:

-Not marry Alexandra. I don't want to marry someone who carries the gene for hemophilia (or who is at risk of carrying this gene, given 19th century medical knowledge).
-Immediately abolish the Pale of Settlement and various other forms of anti-Semitic discrimination. Also, encourage Jews to assimilate--for instance, by encouraging Jews to intermarry with Russians. Basically, I want to make Jews feel like they are a part of the larger Russian community--except with a different religion.
-Listen to smart people such as Sergei Witte in regards to economic policy. Also, continue to industrialize the country (Russia) as quickly as possible.
-Militarily intervene in Ottoman Armenia in the mid-1890s to stop the Hamidian massacres while publicly declaring that Russia is only interested in Ottoman Armenia and Trebizond and has no desire to capture the Straits in this war. Also, hope that this is enough to deter any of the other Great Powers from militarily intervening in this conflict against Russia.
-Look for easy opportunities for territorial expansion by making deals with various other powers. For instance, let Japan acquire some or all of Korea in exchange for a Russian free hand in Manchuria, Mongolia, and Xinjiang. I would especially like to annex Mongolia (including Inner Mongolia) and Xinjiang (Manchuria probably already has too many Chinese people for me to annex it). Also, offer to partition Afghanistan and Persia with Britain and publicly declare that Russia has no interest in British India since Russia only wants sparsely populated living space and not territories with an extremely massive population.
-Seek an agreement with Austria-Hungary over the Balkans. The Balkans are not worth a world war. Also, as much as I want to dismantle Austria-Hungary, I don't want to risk getting overthrown for this--and that is what might happen if I fight A-H and Germany militarily intervenes.
-Keep the alliance with France for security reasons and also to increase the odds of getting a lot of loans from France which could be used to help further develop and industrialize Russia.
-Focus a lot on railroad building and on things such as spreading electricity and modern technology throughout Russia. For instance, it would be extremely great if most rural peasants in Russia had electricity in their houses.
-Create a Duma (parliament) and work with it to improve the lives of the peasants (through things such as land reform) as well as the lives of the urban working class (for instance, by improving living conditions in the cities and by improving conditions in the factories). Also, nominally retain a lot of power for myself but let the Duma make a lot of the big decisions in regards to domestic policy. I would like a free hand in regards to foreign policy in order to try further expanding Russia, though.
-I was flirting with this but I'm not really sure about this--let any African-American who isn't a criminal and who wants to come to Russia do so. This would send a powerful symbolic message against the U.S.'s treatment of African-Americans and would bode well with my other humanitarian policies such as ending the Pale of Settlement and ending anti-Semitic discrimination.
-Implement universal suffrage in Russia in order to create a Duma which is actually representative of the wishes of the Russian people.
-Tell Serbia and Serbian government officials not to support or sponsor any terrorists. Also, tell Serbia that it is on its own if Austria-Hungary attacks it after a terrorist attack.
-Recruit skilled immigrants from all over the world to help Russia and the Russian economy develop.
-Aggressively encourage settlement and economic development in the eastern and southern parts of Russia in the hopes of making those regions much more prosperous, populous, and dynamic.

Anyway, what exactly am I missing here? Also, how exactly does all of this sound?

  Given a dramatic personality transplant Nickolas might try for all this but could cause a hell of a lot of internal discontent.  While it would gain support from the moderate reformers its going to deeply alienate the establishment, which is very powerful.  A number of the ideas would be useful but can see problems with others.

a)  While seeking to abolish discrimination against Jews would be useful antisemitism is deeply embedded in Russian culture at this point and has been a useful tools for diverting from the regime's failures so a 180 degree turn will upset and confuse a lot of people.  Also trying to encourage mixed marriages is likely to be bitterly opposed by both Orthodox Christians and Jews.

b)  A deal with Japan might well be possible but the sheer size of the Russian empire and its historical desire for expansion is going to cause doubts here and elsewhere.  Effective control over Manchuria would be handy, possibly if Russia does a separate deal with Japan after the latter defeats China in 1895 rather than siding with Germany and France to restrict Japanese gains.  Also of Outer Mongolia and possibly Xinjiang where a more tolerant approach to locals compared to imperial China could be popular locally.

c)  Would avoid partitioning Afghanistan and Persia as that would both give you difficult lands to control and also probably not be believed by the British.  Their much happy with a buffer against the Russian titan and the more intelligent won't want to partition such troublesome areas.  Also even if you can persuade them your serious about not being a threat they have to consider about what a future Russia might do, especially if your reducing the monarchy's power by introducing dramatic political reform.  [Not to mention that during this period Britain was being led to the elderly Victoria and the Tories under the aristocratic Lord Salisbury who was not a supporter of democracy so the latter would probably make him think you a total idiot at best.]

d)  An agreement with Austria-Hungary would be useful but there are suggestions that Vienna didn't keep the one that was made OTL.  Russia was supposed to get compensation - forget what off-hand - for accepting the annexation of Bosnia HG but the Austrians didn't follow through.  Also as Russia gets stronger and with an alliance with France and Germany getting more paranoid your likely to be at odds with both Berlin and Vienna.

e)  Its going to be a huge task getting electrification across the country and in a lot of rural areas its simply not going to be practical for the foreseeable future.  Even attempts to improve conditions for ordinary people in the main parts of Russia could face the problem of Potemkin village type situations being set up by figures in the government to pretend their achieving their targets.  After all the Czar is only a single person and needs to rely on the people around them for most of their information.  However a lot of infrastructure spending and working with a reformist Duma to improve conditions for ordinary people could help both political stability and economic development a lot.

f)  For the Afro-Americans see my reply elsewhere.

g)  Total universal suffrage, even if only for men is going to face both a lot of opposition from the establishment and the problems of a low literacy rate and very little knowledge of the wide world, or even of the rest of Russia by a lot of the new voters.  You face a potential problem of allowing demagogues a a lot of power and many will probably be political extremists from either end of the spectrum so you could have to take this a bit slower.  Probably need to get some educational system set up 1st and ideally keep it from being too dominated by the church.

h)  Don't know if you can afford to drop Serbia in such a circumstance, especially since the terrorist responsible for FF assassination were opponents to the Serbian government of the time.  Possibly a better option might be supporting Bulgaria after the 1st Balkan war, which would prevent the 2nd if successful.  Gives you a strong regional ally in Bulgaria - although going to make its neighbours more hostile but should keep Serbia on side if it gets compensation elsewhere.  Also a Bulgaria virtually on the outskirts of Constantinople, although it will make Britain nervous about your plans, is a great threat to the Ottomans.

i)  The Russians recruits a lot of skilled foreigners so that's pretty much as before but could probably be done more efficiently while you also want to leave plenty of room for ordinary Russians else your going to alienate a lot of people.  Especially the new intellectuals you will want to make your reforms possible.  Aggressively settling the south and east was being done but Siberia was unpopular for climatic reasons and the south means seeking to displace/outnumber the substantial Muslim populations which will not be popular with them so depends on how far you want to go here.  Are you talking about establishing a Slavic/Orthodox majority in much of the region, which with the Russian population growth rates at the time is possible but its likely to be bloody and could effectively result in widespread ethnic cleansing.

  However some good ideas here.  A lot of potential problems to consider but you could end up with a markedly larger Russia, especially in terms of population and economic development, becoming the primary rival to the US earlier and not folding like the USSR did OTL which would make for an interesting world.  [Hopefully not too much in the Chinese sense].

First of all, before I will respond to this, I would like to mention that I would do a couple of additional things:

-Create an independent Poland with a monarch from the Russian Romanov family. This Poland will get all of the territory west of the line which later became known in our TL as the Curzon Line.
-Aggressively promote things such as freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom of the press, et cetera--just as long as this doesn't result in advocacy of violent revolution.
-"My" mother is originally a Danish princess. Thus, I want her to speak out in favor of the proposed sale of the Danish West Indies to the U.S. in 1902. This sale failed in the upper house of the Danish Parliament by one vote and maybe my mother can use whatever remaining influence she has in Denmark to swing a vote or two in favor of this deal. As an Americanophile, I want to help the U.S. acquire additional territories. (Also, while the U.S. ultimately did manage to purchase these islands in 1917, this had to do with WWI and it's not a guarantee that Denmark would have ever been willing to sell these islands to the US again without a World War. Since WWI might not occur in this TL, I want to help the U.S. secure this deal in 1902.)

Anyway, back to your response here:

A. Considering that Khrushchev was able to make a clean break with Stalin's legacy, I would think that I would likewise be capable of making a clean break with previous Russian Tsars' anti-Semitism. Also, I am unsure that Russian Jews were as hated back then as you think they were; after all, various revolutionary organizations did admit them--possibly in large numbers.

Anyway, I want to secure the loyalty of Russia's Jews and the best way to do that is to abolish the Pale of Settlement and end all forms of anti-Semitic discrimination. Maybe it would be prudent to end the Jewish quotas gradually in order to avoid generating too much resentment, but the Pale of Settlement can immediately be abolished.

As for mixed marriage, maybe I should wait until a better, later time to promote it (given that "I" was born in 1868, I could reasonably expect to live to the 1940s, 1950s, or even 1960s if I get extremely lucky and if no one kills me beforehand). Still, the idea is a sound one. After all, given that Jewish legal equality is likely to result in Jews being overwhelmingly represented at Russia's top universities and in Jews eventually controlling a disproportionate percentage of Russia's wealth (for instance, something like a third of U.S. billionaires are Jewish right now), a good way to reduce anti-Jewish sentiment might be to encourage Jews to intermarry with Gentiles so that they will be perceived as being less foreign and as being a part of "our people." Given that there was extremely massive intermarriage between Jews and Gentiles in the late Soviet era, this does seem like a good idea for me to do--at least in the later part of my reign.

B. Agreed that Russia should avoid engaging in the Triple Intervention in 1895 in this TL and instead support Japan's territorial claims in China in exchange for Japanese support for Russian territorial claims in China. A good time to seize Mongolia (possibly including Inner Mongolia) and Xinjiang might be either during the 1900 Boxer Rebellion or after the 1911-1912 Xinhai Revolution occurs in China. As for Manchuria, if necessary for Russian interests, I am willing to occupy it, but again, I certainly don't want to annex it (except for a little bit of territory near the Korean border in order to create a longer Russo-Korean border) due to its likely large Chinese population during this time.

Also, I might also want to go for Tibet but I extremely strongly doubt that Britain would actually allow this.

C. Didn't Britain already have universal male suffrage by 1894, though?

Also, I just want to make clear what I want to annex. Specifically, I want to annex the green areas in the very north of Persia/Iran and also the green areas in the very north of Afghanistan:





I'd also want to expand a little further south in Afghanistan up to the Hindu Kush mountains, but I'd be willing to compromise on this if Britain will allow me to have the green areas in the north of Persia and Afghanistan in the two maps above.

There shouldn't be too much trouble from annexing these areas given their small size and likely small population. Also, Persia and Afghanistan would still have mountain ranges protecting the rest of their territory from a future Russian invasion (after all, as you said, Britain might be worried about Russia's future intentions even if Russia is currently acting peacefully).

My first priority is going to be intervening in Ottoman Armenia in order to stop the Hamidian massacres, though. In addition to the humanitarian angle, I also want both Ottoman Armenia and Trebizond for Russia to annex due to my belief that they could eventually become Russia's version of Florida.

I guess that you could say that I want further expansion but I'd really prefer to do it without war and I really wouldn't want to wage a war that my country would be unprepared for. I do want to emulate the Americans in regards to acquiring a lot of living space and then settling it, and I also want to publicly announce this fact and make it official Russian policy, but I also don't want to lead Russia into any disastrous wars. I want cheap, quick, and easy victories (military and/or political victories) like the Americans consistently got in the 19th century.

D. AFAIK, Austria-Hungary promised Russia the Straits in exchange for B-H but then said that the Straits are not its to give. Thus, Russia should have asked for something that A-H can actually deliver on--such as neutrality in future wars that Russia engages in.

As for Germany, you are certainly very correct in regards to German paranoia, and given that my alliance with France was ratified in 1894 near the end of my father's reign, it would probably be too late to undo it. That said, though, I strongly don't want to fight any wars with Germany--at least not until the 1940s or 1950s--which is when Russia will be much stronger. Now, the question is whether Germany is going to do something to provoke a war with Russia while Germany is still strong and Russia is still relatively weak. For instance, think of a German occupation of Poland (which, remember, became independent at the start of my reign in this TL) in order to acquire strategic depth against Russia. Still, I would think that this would be unlikely considering that such a war might be extremely hard to sell to the German people.

I do want Germany to know that I harbor no designs on German territory and that as long as Germany avoids militarily intervening against Russia in any wars that Russia chooses to fight in other areas, there should be no problems between Germany and Russia. After all, Germany has little to offer which might be of interest to Russia--as does Austria-Hungary, for that matter. I mean, sure, I'd absolutely love to dismantle Austria-Hungary, but the direct territorial gains for Russia in such a venture would be limited and not exactly rewarding (Galicia is full of Ukrainian nationalists whom I certainly don't want inside of Russia).

E. Completely agreed with your entire post and especially with your last sentence here. Also, for what it's worth, my rural electrification plan is meant more for the later part of my reign. After all, AFAIK, even the extremely industrialized U.S. only brought electricity to many of its rural areas in the 1930s.

F. OK.

G. Completely agreed with your entire post and especially with your last sentence here. Also, it might be a good idea to have a literacy test as a requirement for voting throughout Russia in order to reduce the risk of political ignorance. Also, please remember that I would--at least nominally--retain a lot of power for myself and thus would be perfectly capable of resisting any demagogues in the Duma. At least, I certainly hope so.

H. Completely agreed about Bulgaria. BTW, why did Russia drop Bulgaria as an ally?

Also, I'd have told Serbia to completely accept every single point of Austria-Hungary's 1914 ultimatum to them if Franz Ferdinand would have still gotten killed. As humiliating as doing this might be for Serbia, I am not literally going to stick my neck out for them in 1914. Of course, as you said, I would probably prefer to keep Bulgaria as my main ally in the Balkans.

I. Yes, I want to create a Slavic majority in Central Asia, the Caucasus, Ottoman Armenia, Trebizond, and any other territories that I will conquer. I would think that there would be enough land there for me to settle a lot of Slavs there without displacing much, if any, of the indigenous populations of these territories. After all, please remember that these territories had much less people in the early 20th century than they have right now. If some of the indigenous people of these territories will want to move elsewhere, though, then that is perfectly fine with me.

Also, I would open up internal migration so that all of the subjects of my empire could easily move to Russian cities. In addition to Slavs moving to the cities, it is very possible that a lot of Slavs will gradually move to the Russian interior/core in this scenario in an attempt to acquire a better standard of living similar to how many African-Americans moved out of the Southern U.S. between 1910 and 1970 in real life.

In addition, I completely agree with what you wrote in regards to the professionals and intellectuals.

Also, for what it's worth, I want to lay the groundwork for an eventual massive suburban boom in Russia as well as for massive Slavic migration to Russia's "Sun Belt." Granted, most of this is probably going to occur after I am already dead, but it's still worth planning this ahead of time.

BTW, what point are you trying to make with your Chinese reference at the very end of your post?

Finally, one last thing--I would also strongly pressure my ally France to grant an easy path to citizenship to French Algeria's Muslim population. Indeed, I'd strongly warn France that it stands to risk eventually losing Algeria if it doesn't give Algeria's Muslims legal equality and a feeling of belonging. In this regard, I would compare France's treatment of Muslim Algerians to my own treatment of the Muslim populations throughout my empire.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on everything that I wrote here, Steve?

[steve59]

Jan 3, 2019 8:20:36 GMT futurist said:

Jan 2, 2019 11:52:36 GMT steve59 said:

  Given a dramatic personality transplant Nickolas might try for all this but could cause a hell of a lot of internal discontent.  While it would gain support from the moderate reformers its going to deeply alienate the establishment, which is very powerful.  A number of the ideas would be useful but can see problems with others.

a)  While seeking to abolish discrimination against Jews would be useful antisemitism is deeply embedded in Russian culture at this point and has been a useful tools for diverting from the regime's failures so a 180 degree turn will upset and confuse a lot of people.  Also trying to encourage mixed marriages is likely to be bitterly opposed by both Orthodox Christians and Jews.

b)  A deal with Japan might well be possible but the sheer size of the Russian empire and its historical desire for expansion is going to cause doubts here and elsewhere.  Effective control over Manchuria would be handy, possibly if Russia does a separate deal with Japan after the latter defeats China in 1895 rather than siding with Germany and France to restrict Japanese gains.  Also of Outer Mongolia and possibly Xinjiang where a more tolerant approach to locals compared to imperial China could be popular locally.

c)  Would avoid partitioning Afghanistan and Persia as that would both give you difficult lands to control and also probably not be believed by the British.  Their much happy with a buffer against the Russian titan and the more intelligent won't want to partition such troublesome areas.  Also even if you can persuade them your serious about not being a threat they have to consider about what a future Russia might do, especially if your reducing the monarchy's power by introducing dramatic political reform.  [Not to mention that during this period Britain was being led to the elderly Victoria and the Tories under the aristocratic Lord Salisbury who was not a supporter of democracy so the latter would probably make him think you a total idiot at best.]

d)  An agreement with Austria-Hungary would be useful but there are suggestions that Vienna didn't keep the one that was made OTL.  Russia was supposed to get compensation - forget what off-hand - for accepting the annexation of Bosnia HG but the Austrians didn't follow through.  Also as Russia gets stronger and with an alliance with France and Germany getting more paranoid your likely to be at odds with both Berlin and Vienna.

e)  Its going to be a huge task getting electrification across the country and in a lot of rural areas its simply not going to be practical for the foreseeable future.  Even attempts to improve conditions for ordinary people in the main parts of Russia could face the problem of Potemkin village type situations being set up by figures in the government to pretend their achieving their targets.  After all the Czar is only a single person and needs to rely on the people around them for most of their information.  However a lot of infrastructure spending and working with a reformist Duma to improve conditions for ordinary people could help both political stability and economic development a lot.

f)  For the Afro-Americans see my reply elsewhere.

g)  Total universal suffrage, even if only for men is going to face both a lot of opposition from the establishment and the problems of a low literacy rate and very little knowledge of the wide world, or even of the rest of Russia by a lot of the new voters.  You face a potential problem of allowing demagogues a a lot of power and many will probably be political extremists from either end of the spectrum so you could have to take this a bit slower.  Probably need to get some educational system set up 1st and ideally keep it from being too dominated by the church.

h)  Don't know if you can afford to drop Serbia in such a circumstance, especially since the terrorist responsible for FF assassination were opponents to the Serbian government of the time.  Possibly a better option might be supporting Bulgaria after the 1st Balkan war, which would prevent the 2nd if successful.  Gives you a strong regional ally in Bulgaria - although going to make its neighbours more hostile but should keep Serbia on side if it gets compensation elsewhere.  Also a Bulgaria virtually on the outskirts of Constantinople, although it will make Britain nervous about your plans, is a great threat to the Ottomans.

i)  The Russians recruits a lot of skilled foreigners so that's pretty much as before but could probably be done more efficiently while you also want to leave plenty of room for ordinary Russians else your going to alienate a lot of people.  Especially the new intellectuals you will want to make your reforms possible.  Aggressively settling the south and east was being done but Siberia was unpopular for climatic reasons and the south means seeking to displace/outnumber the substantial Muslim populations which will not be popular with them so depends on how far you want to go here.  Are you talking about establishing a Slavic/Orthodox majority in much of the region, which with the Russian population growth rates at the time is possible but its likely to be bloody and could effectively result in widespread ethnic cleansing.

  However some good ideas here.  A lot of potential problems to consider but you could end up with a markedly larger Russia, especially in terms of population and economic development, becoming the primary rival to the US earlier and not folding like the USSR did OTL which would make for an interesting world.  [Hopefully not too much in the Chinese sense].

First of all, before I will respond to this, I would like to mention that I would do a couple of additional things:

-Create an independent Poland with a monarch from the Russian Romanov family. This Poland will get all of the territory west of the line which later became known in our TL as the Curzon Line.
-Aggressively promote things such as freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom of the press, et cetera--just as long as this doesn't result in advocacy of violent revolution.
-"My" mother is originally a Danish princess. Thus, I want her to speak out in favor of the proposed sale of the Danish West Indies to the U.S. in 1902. This sale failed in the upper house of the Danish Parliament by one vote and maybe my mother can use whatever remaining influence she has in Denmark to swing a vote or two in favor of this deal. As an Americanophile, I want to help the U.S. acquire additional territories. (Also, while the U.S. ultimately did manage to purchase these islands in 1917, this had to do with WWI and it's not a guarantee that Denmark would have ever been willing to sell these islands to the US again without a World War. Since WWI might not occur in this TL, I want to help the U.S. secure this deal in 1902.)

Anyway, back to your response here:

A. Considering that Khrushchev was able to make a clean break with Stalin's legacy, I would think that I would likewise be capable of making a clean break with previous Russian Tsars' anti-Semitism. Also, I am unsure that Russian Jews were as hated back then as you think they were; after all, various revolutionary organizations did admit them--possibly in large numbers.

Anyway, I want to secure the loyalty of Russia's Jews and the best way to do that is to abolish the Pale of Settlement and end all forms of anti-Semitic discrimination. Maybe it would be prudent to end the Jewish quotas gradually in order to avoid generating too much resentment, but the Pale of Settlement can immediately be abolished.

As for mixed marriage, maybe I should wait until a better, later time to promote it (given that "I" was born in 1868, I could reasonably expect to live to the 1940s, 1950s, or even 1960s if I get extremely lucky and if no one kills me beforehand). Still, the idea is a sound one. After all, given that Jewish legal equality is likely to result in Jews being overwhelmingly represented at Russia's top universities and in Jews eventually controlling a disproportionate percentage of Russia's wealth (for instance, something like a third of U.S. billionaires are Jewish right now), a good way to reduce anti-Jewish sentiment might be to encourage Jews to intermarry with Gentiles so that they will be perceived as being less foreign and as being a part of "our people." Given that there was extremely massive intermarriage between Jews and Gentiles in the late Soviet era, this does seem like a good idea for me to do--at least in the later part of my reign.

B. Agreed that Russia should avoid engaging in the Triple Intervention in 1895 in this TL and instead support Japan's territorial claims in China in exchange for Japanese support for Russian territorial claims in China. A good time to seize Mongolia (possibly including Inner Mongolia) and Xinjiang might be either during the 1900 Boxer Rebellion or after the 1911-1912 Xinhai Revolution occurs in China. As for Manchuria, if necessary for Russian interests, I am willing to occupy it, but again, I certainly don't want to annex it (except for a little bit of territory near the Korean border in order to create a longer Russo-Korean border) due to its likely large Chinese population during this time.

Also, I might also want to go for Tibet but I extremely strongly doubt that Britain would actually allow this.

C. Didn't Britain already have universal male suffrage by 1894, though?

Also, I just want to make clear what I want to annex. Specifically, I want to annex the green areas in the very north of Persia/Iran and also the green areas in the very north of Afghanistan:





I'd also want to expand a little further south in Afghanistan up to the Hindu Kush mountains, but I'd be willing to compromise on this if Britain will allow me to have the green areas in the north of Persia and Afghanistan in the two maps above.

There shouldn't be too much trouble from annexing these areas given their small size and likely small population. Also, Persia and Afghanistan would still have mountain ranges protecting the rest of their territory from a future Russian invasion (after all, as you said, Britain might be worried about Russia's future intentions even if Russia is currently acting peacefully).

My first priority is going to be intervening in Ottoman Armenia in order to stop the Hamidian massacres, though. In addition to the humanitarian angle, I also want both Ottoman Armenia and Trebizond for Russia to annex due to my belief that they could eventually become Russia's version of Florida.

I guess that you could say that I want further expansion but I'd really prefer to do it without war and I really wouldn't want to wage a war that my country would be unprepared for. I do want to emulate the Americans in regards to acquiring a lot of living space and then settling it, and I also want to publicly announce this fact and make it official Russian policy, but I also don't want to lead Russia into any disastrous wars. I want cheap, quick, and easy victories (military and/or political victories) like the Americans consistently got in the 19th century.

D. AFAIK, Austria-Hungary promised Russia the Straits in exchange for B-H but then said that the Straits are not its to give. Thus, Russia should have asked for something that A-H can actually deliver on--such as neutrality in future wars that Russia engages in.

As for Germany, you are certainly very correct in regards to German paranoia, and given that my alliance with France was ratified in 1894 near the end of my father's reign, it would probably be too late to undo it. That said, though, I strongly don't want to fight any wars with Germany--at least not until the 1940s or 1950s--which is when Russia will be much stronger. Now, the question is whether Germany is going to do something to provoke a war with Russia while Germany is still strong and Russia is still relatively weak. For instance, think of a German occupation of Poland (which, remember, became independent at the start of my reign in this TL) in order to acquire strategic depth against Russia. Still, I would think that this would be unlikely considering that such a war might be extremely hard to sell to the German people.

I do want Germany to know that I harbor no designs on German territory and that as long as Germany avoids militarily intervening against Russia in any wars that Russia chooses to fight in other areas, there should be no problems between Germany and Russia. After all, Germany has little to offer which might be of interest to Russia--as does Austria-Hungary, for that matter. I mean, sure, I'd absolutely love to dismantle Austria-Hungary, but the direct territorial gains for Russia in such a venture would be limited and not exactly rewarding (Galicia is full of Ukrainian nationalists whom I certainly don't want inside of Russia).

E. Completely agreed with your entire post and especially with your last sentence here. Also, for what it's worth, my rural electrification plan is meant more for the later part of my reign. After all, AFAIK, even the extremely industrialized U.S. only brought electricity to many of its rural areas in the 1930s.

F. OK.

G. Completely agreed with your entire post and especially with your last sentence here. Also, it might be a good idea to have a literacy test as a requirement for voting throughout Russia in order to reduce the risk of political ignorance. Also, please remember that I would--at least nominally--retain a lot of power for myself and thus would be perfectly capable of resisting any demagogues in the Duma. At least, I certainly hope so.

H. Completely agreed about Bulgaria. BTW, why did Russia drop Bulgaria as an ally?

Also, I'd have told Serbia to completely accept every single point of Austria-Hungary's 1914 ultimatum to them if Franz Ferdinand would have still gotten killed. As humiliating as doing this might be for Serbia, I am not literally going to stick my neck out for them in 1914. Of course, as you said, I would probably prefer to keep Bulgaria as my main ally in the Balkans.

I. Yes, I want to create a Slavic majority in Central Asia, the Caucasus, Ottoman Armenia, Trebizond, and any other territories that I will conquer. I would think that there would be enough land there for me to settle a lot of Slavs there without displacing much, if any, of the indigenous populations of these territories. After all, please remember that these territories had much less people in the early 20th century than they have right now. If some of the indigenous people of these territories will want to move elsewhere, though, then that is perfectly fine with me.

Also, I would open up internal migration so that all of the subjects of my empire could easily move to Russian cities. In addition to Slavs moving to the cities, it is very possible that a lot of Slavs will gradually move to the Russian interior/core in this scenario in an attempt to acquire a better standard of living similar to how many African-Americans moved out of the Southern U.S. between 1910 and 1970 in real life.

In addition, I completely agree with what you wrote in regards to the professionals and intellectuals.

Also, for what it's worth, I want to lay the groundwork for an eventual massive suburban boom in Russia as well as for massive Slavic migration to Russia's "Sun Belt." Granted, most of this is probably going to occur after I am already dead, but it's still worth planning this ahead of time.

BTW, what point are you trying to make with your Chinese reference at the very end of your post?

Finally, one last thing--I would also strongly pressure my ally France to grant an easy path to citizenship to French Algeria's Muslim population. Indeed, I'd strongly warn France that it stands to risk eventually losing Algeria if it doesn't give Algeria's Muslims legal equality and a feeling of belonging. In this regard, I would compare France's treatment of Muslim Algerians to my own treatment of the Muslim populations throughout my empire.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on everything that I wrote here, Steve?

  futurist

    Keeping it short as busy at the moment but trying to cover the key points.

a)  Khrushchev was able to make a break from the one man dictatorship of Stalin but not from the communist system as a whole, hence its continuation to the final breakdown in the 1990s.  The Bolsheviks made a break with much of the traditional Russian culture and society - albeit still keeping and deepening the autocracy - but that involved 3 years of extremely costly war and then a violent coup and further long years of civil war.  Your talking about a similar level of change with a monarchy that will be weakened by your changes being the only factor that would be unchanged.  As such while not impossible its going to be a long and difficult job and by the nature of the changes you make you will be undermining your own position.

c)  No I think there were limits on the franchise in Britain for men until just after WWI as well as women not having the vote.

  On the annexations I was taking it you meant to have Russia and Britain annex the two countries [Afghanistan and Persia] totally between them.  The relatively small areas your mentioning would be a lot easier to absorb, although your still likely to meet a lot of opposition locally.

h)  Basically there was an at least informal deal on the share of the gains expected from the Ottomans in the run up to the 1st Balkan War.  Bulgaria actually did possibly the bulk of the fighting because of its geographical position and looked like it might even take Constantinople at one point but ended up with relatively minor gains while Greece and Serbia ended up with markedly larger areas including much of those Bulgarian was expecting from the pre-war agreement.  .  This left those two powers frustrated and they decided to keep what they had occupied elsewhere, causing tension with Bulgaria.

  Russia had been to a degree at least an informal backer of the alliance and Bulgaria turned to it for support in getting their share but Russia didn't want to get that deeply involved, for whatever reason, possibly considering Serbia a more important ally or possibly because Russian intervention would cause a wider crisis.  As such they turned Bulgaria down, the latter then tried a rather half-hearted attack on Serbia and Greece and being stomped as Romania and Turkey also ploughed in against it.  This was why Serbia was the only Russian ally in the region in 1914 and they felt they needed to support it against Austria's threat and why Bulgaria was alienated from Russia and ended up in the CPs.

i)  There is a capacity for settlement of Slavs in many of those areas but seeking to establish a Slavic majority is going to cause problems with the locals, and not just the Muslims.  Christian groups such as the Armenians and Georgians are unlikely to be unhappy with being supplanted in their own homelands. 

  Also you have a contradiction between free movement of your people are gaining a Slavic majority in many of those areas as very few Slavs will probably want to move, especially to Siberia and the far south.

  The comment about China was a reference to the old Chinese curse -"may you live in interesting times"  - basically because times which tend to attract most attention to historians are generally highly disorderly and often bloody and as such times most people would prefer to avoid.

  Steve

[futurist]

A. Excellent points, Steve! Thus, I really should move very slowly, shouldn't I?

C. Interesting. I'll try to read up more on this.

BTW, I already knew that women could only vote in Britain starting from either 1918 or 1928 (depending on which group of British women we are talking about here; I think that those 30 years old or older could vote starting from 1918 while the rest of women had to wait until 1928 (or turning 30) to vote).

In regards to Afghanistan and Persia, Britain can do whatever it wants with its own portions of Afghanistan and Persia. If it wants to keep them independent, that's totally fine. What I am primarily interested in is getting territorial gains for Russia at these countries' expense. The green territories in the north on the two maps above look like they're the most lucrative potential territorial gains for Russia from these two countries.

H. Why exactly did Greece and Bulgaria become frustrated? Did you accidentally delete a sentence that you wrote here?

Also, IMHO, Russia should have tried harder to support Bulgaria during this crisis if doing so would not have triggered a World War.

I. As for the Armenians and Georgians, they shouldn't worry too much since I suspect that Russians are only going to settle in large numbers on the coast and in the large cities. The mountains and countryside will probably continue to have few Russians on them.

As for free movement of people, this works both ways. Sure, Russians might initially be hesitant to move to Siberia and to the south, but the various non-Russian peoples of my empire are going to be able to move to the Russian interior/core--which would make it easier for Russians to populate Siberia and the southern territories later on. Think of how the Great Migration of African-Americans out of the Southern U.S. between 1910 and 1970 significantly increased the White percentage of the total population in various Southern U.S. states.

Also, I am viewing this as more of a long-term game. Specifically, I want to create the conditions which will allow a Russian Sun Belt to be created in the southern territories of my empire at some future point in time. For instance, think of Florida. It was very sparsely populated in 1900 with it only having around half a million people. However, it experienced extremely massive population growth after the end of WWII and now has over 20 million people--with it surpassing New York to become the U.S.'s third-most populous state several years ago!

Indeed, I was hoping that a similar fate will eventually await the southern territories of my empire--not only Central Asia, but also Mongolia, Xinjiang, Ottoman Armenia, Trebizond, northern Persia, and northern Afghanistan if I will ever acquire these territories.

BTW, thanks for explaining your China comment here, Steve!

[steve59]

Jan 5, 2019 6:30:50 GMT futurist said:

A. Excellent points, Steve! Thus, I really should move very slowly, shouldn't I?

C. Interesting. I'll try to read up more on this.

BTW, I already knew that women could only vote in Britain starting from either 1918 or 1928 (depending on which group of British women we are talking about here; I think that those 30 years old or older could vote starting from 1918 while the rest of women had to wait until 1928 (or turning 30) to vote).

In regards to Afghanistan and Persia, Britain can do whatever it wants with its own portions of Afghanistan and Persia. If it wants to keep them independent, that's totally fine. What I am primarily interested in is getting territorial gains for Russia at these countries' expense. The green territories in the north on the two maps above look like they're the most lucrative potential territorial gains for Russia from these two countries.

H. Why exactly did Greece and Bulgaria become frustrated? Did you accidentally delete a sentence that you wrote here?

Also, IMHO, Russia should have tried harder to support Bulgaria during this crisis if doing so would not have triggered a World War.

I. As for the Armenians and Georgians, they shouldn't worry too much since I suspect that Russians are only going to settle in large numbers on the coast and in the large cities. The mountains and countryside will probably continue to have few Russians on them.

As for free movement of people, this works both ways. Sure, Russians might initially be hesitant to move to Siberia and to the south, but the various non-Russian peoples of my empire are going to be able to move to the Russian interior/core--which would make it easier for Russians to populate Siberia and the southern territories later on. Think of how the Great Migration of African-Americans out of the Southern U.S. between 1910 and 1970 significantly increased the White percentage of the total population in various Southern U.S. states.

Also, I am viewing this as more of a long-term game. Specifically, I want to create the conditions which will allow a Russian Sun Belt to be created in the southern territories of my empire at some future point in time. For instance, think of Florida. It was very sparsely populated in 1900 with it only having around half a million people. However, it experienced extremely massive population growth after the end of WWII and now has over 20 million people--with it surpassing New York to become the U.S.'s third-most populous state several years ago!

Indeed, I was hoping that a similar fate will eventually await the southern territories of my empire--not only Central Asia, but also Mongolia, Xinjiang, Ottoman Armenia, Trebizond, northern Persia, and northern Afghanistan if I will ever acquire these territories.

BTW, thanks for explaining your China comment here, Steve!

  On h)  I don't quite understand your comment?  Bulgaria felt resentful because it didn't get the lands it felt it had been promised and then didn't get support from Russia.  Followed by an half-assed attack on Serbia and Greece that got it attacked by all its neighbours.

  Greece was affected by the assassination of the king during this period, although I have read he did intend to abdicate in favour of his son anyway.  This brought a pro-German monarch to the throne which distanced itself from the 'allies' hence its isolation and later the effective coup against him by pro-EP elements in the country.

  Not sure how much freedom Russia would have had to intervene strongly in support of Bulgaria, especially if that might have meant Russia forces on the ground to support them.  This would have alienated not just Germany, Austria and Turkey but Britain as well and could have lead to a general war. 

[MarshalBraginsky]

If I was Nicholas II, I would have:

A) Come to an agreement with Japan on territorial interests in China in a similar manner to the Taft-Katsura Agreement with the US, where Russia concedes Korea to Japan and Japan recognizes Russian interests in Manchuria. Alternatively, if Russia could cede half of Outer Manchuria and all of Sakhalin to Japan in exchange for Japanese support of Russia's expansion into Inner Manchuria, it could solve both Russia's need for a warm water port AND Japan's desire for more territory. Primorsky Krai is much closer to Japan than Russia.

B) Encourage a population exchange between Russia and the Ottoman Empire, with Ottoman Armenians settling in Russian Armenia and maybe Circassians or other Caucasian Muslims moving to Ottoman Anatolia. By doing so, it would remove the main impetus for the Armenian Genocide.

C) Drop the Russification policies towards the Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine and Belorussia. That alone might ease up or prevent future ethnic conflicts between Russians and other minorities down the line. I would also try to improve relations with the Tatar minorities there.

D) Keep Stolypin around for much longer. He is the brains behind the attempts at creating a viable middle class in Russia. Him and Witte remaining in the Tsar's grace would go a long way in sapping anti-Tsarist sentiment.

E) Improve relations with the United States. The Americans might develop an economic interest in propping up Russia as a counter to both Britain and Japan. Also, improving the Trans-Siberian Railway can be done through American companies.

F) Instead of trying to acquire control of the Straits, it would be better if it was awarded to a Russian ally. Long term relations with Bulgaria and Serbia would be far more beneficial than immediate acquisition of the Straits. However, this might also drive Greece further away from Russia.

G) Help maintain the territorial integrity of Austria-Hungary, though if it collapses, support Polish territorial designs on Galicia and Lodomeria.

[futurist]

Jan 6, 2019 3:28:18 GMT MarshalBraginsky said:

If I was Nicholas II, I would have:

A) Come to an agreement with Japan on territorial interests in China in a similar manner to the Taft-Katsura Agreement with the US, where Russia concedes Korea to Japan and Japan recognizes Russian interests in Manchuria. Alternatively, if Russia could cede half of Outer Manchuria and all of Sakhalin to Japan in exchange for Japanese support of Russia's expansion into Inner Manchuria, it could solve both Russia's need for a warm water port AND Japan's desire for more territory. Primorsky Krai is much closer to Japan than Russia.

B) Encourage a population exchange between Russia and the Ottoman Empire, with Ottoman Armenians settling in Russian Armenia and maybe Circassians or other Caucasian Muslims moving to Ottoman Anatolia. By doing so, it would remove the main impetus for the Armenian Genocide.

C) Drop the Russification policies towards the Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine and Belorussia. That alone might ease up or prevent future ethnic conflicts between Russians and other minorities down the line. I would also try to improve relations with the Tatar minorities there.

D) Keep Stolypin around for much longer. He is the brains behind the attempts at creating a viable middle class in Russia. Him and Witte remaining in the Tsar's grace would go a long way in sapping anti-Tsarist sentiment.

E) Improve relations with the United States. The Americans might develop an economic interest in propping up Russia as a counter to both Britain and Japan. Also, improving the Trans-Siberian Railway can be done through American companies.

F) Instead of trying to acquire control of the Straits, it would be better if it was awarded to a Russian ally. Long term relations with Bulgaria and Serbia would be far more beneficial than immediate acquisition of the Straits. However, this might also drive Greece further away from Russia.

G) Help maintain the territorial integrity of Austria-Hungary, though if it collapses, support Polish territorial designs on Galicia and Lodomeria.

A. Didn't Inner Manchuria already have a lot of Chinese people during this time, though?

B. Not a bad idea. Plus, if Russia and the Ottomans still eventually go to war, Russia could acquire additional territory without jeopardizing the security of the Armenians (since they'd already be living in Russia).

C. That I completely agree with. Minorities should feel free to speak their own languages and to feel comfortable doing so. They should still be taught Russian in schools, but it would be much better if they voluntarily became Russians in comparison to having Russianness be forced upon them. I am not a big fan of what France did with the Occitans and other groups. Rather, they should have been encouraged to learn French but not be punished or penalized for speaking their own languages.

D. Completely agreed with all of this. Also, increase security for your ministers--including these two--in order to reduce the risk of assassination.

E. Completely agreed with this. Also, abolishing the Pale of Settlement and anti-Semitic discrimination in Russia could really go a long way towards improving relations between Russia and the U.S.

F. That I completely agree with.

G. Completely agreed with this. Also, give Poland its independence under some Romanov prince.

For what it's worth, as much as I would like to dismember Austria-Hungary, I certainly wouldn't want to fight a war against Germany.

[MarshalBraginsky]

A) Not until 1900, I believe. Although an alternate Manchukuo where ethnic Russians live alongside Japanese, Koreans, Manchus and other minorities from the Russian Empire would be settled. Alternatively, you can also have a rump Qing kingdom in a China that is fractured.

B) True, although there is also some Ottoman territory that the Georgians would want as well, making Russian expansion into Anatolia a bit more complicated.

C) Agreed. In actuality though, there was an idea that I wanted to use for "To Rebuild a Shattered World" timeline's Russian Empire where they are organized in a similar fashion to the early unified Spanish kingdom, with the Crowns of Castile and Aragon being separate, but having a unified government, so to speak. Early federalizations might be the solution.

D and E) True, but even the US had engaged in anti-Semitic expulsions during the American Civil War.

F) Another thing too: Russia needs to be involved in the attempt to reconcile Serbs and Albanians too. By emphasizing the need for Christian-Muslim partnership, it would also lessen future ethnic conflicts too. That way, you can have an actual, more powerful Balkan League as well.

G) Or alternatively, someone from another Danish nobility connected to the Tsar becomes King of Poland.

A US-Tsarist Russia alliance might be a useful counterbalance to the Anglo-Japanese and even German factions too. With the Japanese acquisition of half of Outer Manchuria as explained above, the Americans or the Germans would be in a prime position to acquire the Philippines from Spain. I can also see Nicholas II and Wilhelm II coming to terms with their respective spheres of influence.

[futurist]

Jan 6, 2019 22:15:22 GMT MarshalBraginsky said:

A) Not until 1900, I believe. Although an alternate Manchukuo where ethnic Russians live alongside Japanese, Koreans, Manchus and other minorities from the Russian Empire would be settled. Alternatively, you can also have a rump Qing kingdom in a China that is fractured.

B) True, although there is also some Ottoman territory that the Georgians would want as well, making Russian expansion into Anatolia a bit more complicated.

C) Agreed. In actuality though, there was an idea that I wanted to use for "To Rebuild a Shattered World" timeline's Russian Empire where they are organized in a similar fashion to the early unified Spanish kingdom, with the Crowns of Castile and Aragon being separate, but having a unified government, so to speak. Early federalizations might be the solution.

D and E) True, but even the US had engaged in anti-Semitic expulsions during the American Civil War.

F) Another thing too: Russia needs to be involved in the attempt to reconcile Serbs and Albanians too. By emphasizing the need for Christian-Muslim partnership, it would also lessen future ethnic conflicts too. That way, you can have an actual, more powerful Balkan League as well.

G) Or alternatively, someone from another Danish nobility connected to the Tsar becomes King of Poland.

A US-Tsarist Russia alliance might be a useful counterbalance to the Anglo-Japanese and even German factions too. With the Japanese acquisition of half of Outer Manchuria as explained above, the Americans or the Germans would be in a prime position to acquire the Philippines from Spain. I can also see Nicholas II and Wilhelm II coming to terms with their respective spheres of influence.

A. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Manchuria

"The population grew from about 1 million in 1750 to 5 million in 1850 and 14 million in 1900, largely because of the immigration of Chinese farmers."

In 1894, the Chinese population might have been, say, 12 or 13 million rather than 14 million. However, that's a trivial difference and the Chinese population in Manchuria would have likely significantly grown even more over time. I don't think that Russia would be able to easily assimilate or integrate such a large number of Chinese people--especially when they are all living in one place.

B. Georgia is a part of my empire, though. Indeed, I am certainly not going to federalize my empire until the Russian potential for settler colonialism is going to end due to declining population growth--by which point I will probably already be dead.

C. Honestly, if you're going to federalize the empire, you might as well give them the right of secession as well. Still, it might not be a good idea to federalize while you still have a large and rapidly growing Russian population which can move to various territories throughout your empire and make those territories' population much more Russian.

D and E. AFAIK, those expulsions were condemned and quickly reversed. Generally speaking, Jews in the US were treated pretty well in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Heck, even the Jewish quotas at US universities only began appearing in the 1920s IIRC.

The US certainly never had anything even remotely comparable to the Russian Pale of Settlement.

F. Completely agreed with this, though it might be difficult as long as Serbia will want Albania's territory for itself.

G. Fine with me, as long as they will remain allied to Russia.

The challenge is actually getting the US to agree to a Russian alliance, though. Also, there are still likely to be tensions with Germany as a result of Russia's alliance with France (which was ratified before I became Russian Tsar and revoking which is going to severely anger France and is thus unlikely to be done).

[MarshalBraginsky]

A) OK, so I might have to reconsider this portion as well.

B) So federalization might have to take a back seat, or abandoned altogether.

C) (See above)

D, E) That is indeed true.

F) Plus the lack of access to the sea is further complicated by the Austrian fears of having Serbia and Montenegro unite.

[eurofed]

Lots of good points being made. I only have a few remarks of my own to make.

It obviously takes two to tango, so this idea would require a similar leap of insight occurring in the German leadership, but in hindsight the Russian alliance with France and the German alliance with Austria did not turn out that great for either side. An argument could be made a Russo-German alliance based on a sensible division of Central Europe, the Balkans, and the Middle East in spheres of influence offered better medium-term advantages to either side including: freedom to carve up the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires and pick the choice bits beyond all ability of the other powers to interfere; availability of Italy as a reliable junior ally as soon as they feel can afford joining the conflict (i.e. when A-H starts to fold); land invincibility in Western Eurasia and avoidance of a costly and exhausting conflict in Eastern Europe in exchange with a shorter and easier one against the Anglo-Austro-French-Ottoman Entente; good complementarity between German capital and know-how and Russian manpower and natural resources - the Germans can help Russia improve itself as much as the French did; strategic inability of Polish nationalism to ever become a serious threat. Sure, Germany and Russia can eventually get alienated and come to blows in the long term, but if the terms of the alliance are well established and the leaders of the two sides stay reasonable, this can be delayed at least for a generation or two. Therefore, if I were Nicholas II or William II getting a personality transplant that provides foresight, I would try my best to drop Austria or France and form an alliance with Germany or Russia, which would build on the good relations that existed between the two powers between the fall of Napoleon and the 1890s.

I absolutely support the notion Russia should make a sensible spheres of influence deal with Japan. The Japanese only really wanted to get Korea before Russian greedy intransigence and overreach forced their hand to war. Let Tokyo have Korea and Sakhalin, get the support of Japan and Germany to seize Xinjiang, Mongolia, and Manchuria from the moribund Qing. Up to the late 19th century, the Qing had forbidden Han immigration into Manchuria, so by 1894-1904 the region was still scarcely populated and large-scale Han immigration in its early stages. The Russians or the Japanese would experience no real difficulty stopping or reversing it and replacing the Han settlers with their own if they conquer the area in this period.

As it concerns the areas of the Ottoman Empire, Persia, and Afghanistan that Russia should attempt to directly annex instead of vassallize if it gains a free hand in the Middle East, good candidates for the former include the areas where Christians are the majority/plurality or can be made such w/o excessive difficulty with some forced population transfer, since they are likely to welcome the Russians as liberators and protectors from Muslim oppressive and genocidal rule, and the regions inhabited by ethnic kinsmen of peoples you already rule w/o excessive trouble. In other words, Armenian-Assyrian-Pontic Greek eastern Anatolia and northern Mesopotamia, Azeri northwestern Persia, and non-Pashtun northern Afghanistan. The rest in all likelihood is only fit for being set up in a series of client states.

Trying to pacify British paranoia about India is probably a fool's errand for a successful Russia, even more so once the Russo-German alliance magnifies British fears about continental hegemony x10. When the inevitable conflict with the Entente comes, smash A-H, France, and Turkey in a few months, then let Britain stew in furious impotence as the Russo-German alliance utterly dominates western Eurasia from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean and the vaunted Royal Navy can do absolutely nothing to roll it back. America is not going to care one bit as long as the Tsar and the Kaiser guarantee the USA fair terms to trade with Europe.

Serbia was a poor choice of main Balkan proxy for Russia, for various reasons. Bulgaria, the original choice, was superior in terms of strength, domestic stability, and geopolitical placement. Stick to that.

[futurist]

Jan 7, 2019 3:52:27 GMT MarshalBraginsky said:

A) OK, so I might have to reconsider this portion as well.

B) So federalization might have to take a back seat, or abandoned altogether.

C) (See above)

D, E) That is indeed true.

F) Plus the lack of access to the sea is further complicated by the Austrian fears of having Serbia and Montenegro unite.

A, B, C, D, & E) Yep.

F) You can support an Austrian claim to the Sandjak in order to prevent Serbia and Montenegro from having a common border.

[futurist]

Jan 7, 2019 22:11:34 GMT eurofed said:

Lots of good points being made. I only have a few remarks of my own to make.

1. It obviously takes two to tango, so this idea would require a similar leap of insight occurring in the German leadership, but in hindsight the Russian alliance with France and the German alliance with Austria did not turn out that great for either side.

2. An argument could be made a Russo-German alliance based on a sensible division of Central Europe, the Balkans, and the Middle East in spheres of influence offered better medium-term advantages to either side including: freedom to carve up the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires and pick the choice bits beyond all ability of the other powers to interfere; availability of Italy as a reliable junior ally as soon as they feel can afford joining the conflict (i.e. when A-H starts to fold); land invincibility in Western Eurasia and avoidance of a costly and exhausting conflict in Eastern Europe in exchange with a shorter and easier one against the Anglo-Austro-French-Ottoman Entente; good complementarity between German capital and know-how and Russian manpower and natural resources - the Germans can help Russia improve itself as much as the French did; strategic inability of Polish nationalism to ever become a serious threat. Sure, Germany and Russia can eventually get alienated and come to blows in the long term, but if the terms of the alliance are well established and the leaders of the two sides stay reasonable, this can be delayed at least for a generation or two. Therefore, if I were Nicholas II or William II getting a personality transplant that provides foresight, I would try my best to drop Austria or France and form an alliance with Germany or Russia, which would build on the good relations that existed between the two powers between the fall of Napoleon and the 1890s.

3. I absolutely support the notion Russia should make a sensible spheres of influence deal with Japan. The Japanese only really wanted to get Korea before Russian greedy intransigence and overreach forced their hand to war. Let Tokyo have Korea and Sakhalin, get the support of Japan and Germany to seize Xinjiang, Mongolia, and Manchuria from the moribund Qing. Up to the late 19th century, the Qing had forbidden Han immigration into Manchuria, so by 1894-1904 the region was still scarcely populated and large-scale Han immigration in its early stages. The Russians or the Japanese would experience no real difficulty stopping or reversing it and replacing the Han settlers with their own if they conquer the area in this period.

4. As it concerns the areas of the Ottoman Empire, Persia, and Afghanistan that Russia should attempt to directly annex instead of vassallize if it gains a free hand in the Middle East, good candidates for the former include the areas where Christians are the majority/plurality or can be made such w/o excessive difficulty with some forced population transfer, since they are likely to welcome the Russians as liberators and protectors from Muslim oppressive and genocidal rule, and the regions inhabited by ethnic kinsmen of peoples you already rule w/o excessive trouble. In other words, Armenian-Assyrian-Pontic Greek eastern Anatolia and northern Mesopotamia, Azeri northwestern Persia, and non-Pashtun northern Afghanistan. The rest in all likelihood is only fit for being set up in a series of client states.

5. Trying to pacify British paranoia about India is probably a fool's errand for a successful Russia, even more so once the Russo-German alliance magnifies British fears about continental hegemony x10. When the inevitable conflict with the Entente comes, smash A-H, France, and Turkey in a few months, then let Britain stew in furious impotence as the Russo-German alliance utterly dominates western Eurasia from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean and the vaunted Royal Navy can do absolutely nothing to roll it back. America is not going to care one bit as long as the Tsar and the Kaiser guarantee the USA fair terms to trade with Europe.

6. Serbia was a poor choice of main Balkan proxy for Russia, for various reasons. Bulgaria, the original choice, was superior in terms of strength, domestic stability, and geopolitical placement. Stick to that.

1. Mostly agreed, though I wonder if Russia would have been able to get as much loans from France without this alliance. How much of these loans were from the French government as opposed to French bankers? Also, would French bankers still lend to Russia en masse if it was allied with Germany (the French government obviously wouldn't)?

2. The one thing that I am wondering about is whether Germany would have had as much capital to invest in Russia as France would. After all, Germany itself was booming industrially and thus one might wonder whether German capitalists would have preferred to invest at home instead of abroad.

Also, while your idea here is extremely attractive, I fear that Germany will not agree to dismember A-H and the Ottoman Empire with me (Russia). If Germany were to propose the dismemberment, then I would certainly agree and dump France, but I just don't see this happening.

I do want to avoid war with Germany until at least the 1940s or 1950s, though--and even then it might be risky since the Germans and/or British (who will likely become allied to the Germans by that point in time) might very well develop nukes before I (Russia) will!

3. Sakhalin was under Russian rule since 1875. Thus, I can't simply give it up without a war--a war which I certainly don't want. Japan can indeed have Korea, though.

Also, please take a look at the demographic data that I posted above. By 1900, Manchuria already 14 million Chinese people--a number which is only likely to grow further as time goes on due to their high birth rates.

I also certainly don't have the appetite for any mass expulsions. It was bad enough that my grandfather Alexander II expelled Russia's Circassian population en masse.

4. Completely agreed with all of this. Of course, I would prefer to avoid engaging in population exchanges expect for troublemakers. Just because one is, say, a Pashtun or a Turk does not in itself mean that one shouldn't be given an opportunity to live under Russian rule.

5. I don't think that the German alliance is going to happen since Germany would be unlikely to agree to dismember A-H and the Ottoman Empire together with me, though.

As for Britain, I'll try to calm them down anyway and if they nevertheless insist on fighting, then be prepared to fight them once Russia is ready. Also, if a war with Britain breaks out, support Muslim separatists in British India.

6. Completely agreed with this.

Also, I noticed that you didn't talk at all about domestic policy here.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Montenegro was actually the more pro-Russian Balkan state than Serbia due to the Obrenović dynasty that aligned with Vienna.

As for Manchuria, it might be more feasible that should the Qing fall apart, they could be salvaged in a rump new Qing state (like Manchukuo) instead of directly annexed into Russia.

[futurist]

Jan 8, 2019 0:59:13 GMT MarshalBraginsky said:

Montenegro was actually the more pro-Russian Balkan state than Serbia due to the Obrenović dynasty that aligned with Vienna.

As for Manchuria, it might be more feasible that should the Qing fall apart, they could be salvaged in a rump new Qing state (like Manchukuo) instead of directly annexed into Russia.

Agreed with all of this.

[steve59]

Jan 7, 2019 23:58:13 GMT futurist said:

Jan 7, 2019 22:11:34 GMT eurofed said:

Lots of good points being made. I only have a few remarks of my own to make.

1. It obviously takes two to tango, so this idea would require a similar leap of insight occurring in the German leadership, but in hindsight the Russian alliance with France and the German alliance with Austria did not turn out that great for either side.

2. An argument could be made a Russo-German alliance based on a sensible division of Central Europe, the Balkans, and the Middle East in spheres of influence offered better medium-term advantages to either side including: freedom to carve up the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires and pick the choice bits beyond all ability of the other powers to interfere; availability of Italy as a reliable junior ally as soon as they feel can afford joining the conflict (i.e. when A-H starts to fold); land invincibility in Western Eurasia and avoidance of a costly and exhausting conflict in Eastern Europe in exchange with a shorter and easier one against the Anglo-Austro-French-Ottoman Entente; good complementarity between German capital and know-how and Russian manpower and natural resources - the Germans can help Russia improve itself as much as the French did; strategic inability of Polish nationalism to ever become a serious threat. Sure, Germany and Russia can eventually get alienated and come to blows in the long term, but if the terms of the alliance are well established and the leaders of the two sides stay reasonable, this can be delayed at least for a generation or two. Therefore, if I were Nicholas II or William II getting a personality transplant that provides foresight, I would try my best to drop Austria or France and form an alliance with Germany or Russia, which would build on the good relations that existed between the two powers between the fall of Napoleon and the 1890s.

3. I absolutely support the notion Russia should make a sensible spheres of influence deal with Japan. The Japanese only really wanted to get Korea before Russian greedy intransigence and overreach forced their hand to war. Let Tokyo have Korea and Sakhalin, get the support of Japan and Germany to seize Xinjiang, Mongolia, and Manchuria from the moribund Qing. Up to the late 19th century, the Qing had forbidden Han immigration into Manchuria, so by 1894-1904 the region was still scarcely populated and large-scale Han immigration in its early stages. The Russians or the Japanese would experience no real difficulty stopping or reversing it and replacing the Han settlers with their own if they conquer the area in this period.

4. As it concerns the areas of the Ottoman Empire, Persia, and Afghanistan that Russia should attempt to directly annex instead of vassallize if it gains a free hand in the Middle East, good candidates for the former include the areas where Christians are the majority/plurality or can be made such w/o excessive difficulty with some forced population transfer, since they are likely to welcome the Russians as liberators and protectors from Muslim oppressive and genocidal rule, and the regions inhabited by ethnic kinsmen of peoples you already rule w/o excessive trouble. In other words, Armenian-Assyrian-Pontic Greek eastern Anatolia and northern Mesopotamia, Azeri northwestern Persia, and non-Pashtun northern Afghanistan. The rest in all likelihood is only fit for being set up in a series of client states.

5. Trying to pacify British paranoia about India is probably a fool's errand for a successful Russia, even more so once the Russo-German alliance magnifies British fears about continental hegemony x10. When the inevitable conflict with the Entente comes, smash A-H, France, and Turkey in a few months, then let Britain stew in furious impotence as the Russo-German alliance utterly dominates western Eurasia from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean and the vaunted Royal Navy can do absolutely nothing to roll it back. America is not going to care one bit as long as the Tsar and the Kaiser guarantee the USA fair terms to trade with Europe.

6. Serbia was a poor choice of main Balkan proxy for Russia, for various reasons. Bulgaria, the original choice, was superior in terms of strength, domestic stability, and geopolitical placement. Stick to that.

1. Mostly agreed, though I wonder if Russia would have been able to get as much loans from France without this alliance. How much of these loans were from the French government as opposed to French bankers? Also, would French bankers still lend to Russia en masse if it was allied with Germany (the French government obviously wouldn't)?

2. The one thing that I am wondering about is whether Germany would have had as much capital to invest in Russia as France would. After all, Germany itself was booming industrially and thus one might wonder whether German capitalists would have preferred to invest at home instead of abroad.

Also, while your idea here is extremely attractive, I fear that Germany will not agree to dismember A-H and the Ottoman Empire with me (Russia). If Germany were to propose the dismemberment, then I would certainly agree and dump France, but I just don't see this happening.

I do want to avoid war with Germany until at least the 1940s or 1950s, though--and even then it might be risky since the Germans and/or British (who will likely become allied to the Germans by that point in time) might very well develop nukes before I (Russia) will!

3. Sakhalin was under Russian rule since 1875. Thus, I can't simply give it up without a war--a war which I certainly don't want. Japan can indeed have Korea, though.

Also, please take a look at the demographic data that I posted above. By 1900, Manchuria already 14 million Chinese people--a number which is only likely to grow further as time goes on due to their high birth rates.

I also certainly don't have the appetite for any mass expulsions. It was bad enough that my grandfather Alexander II expelled Russia's Circassian population en masse.

4. Completely agreed with all of this. Of course, I would prefer to avoid engaging in population exchanges expect for troublemakers. Just because one is, say, a Pashtun or a Turk does not in itself mean that one shouldn't be given an opportunity to live under Russian rule.

5. I don't think that the German alliance is going to happen since Germany would be unlikely to agree to dismember A-H and the Ottoman Empire together with me, though.

As for Britain, I'll try to calm them down anyway and if they nevertheless insist on fighting, then be prepared to fight them once Russia is ready. Also, if a war with Britain breaks out, support Muslim separatists in British India.

6. Completely agreed with this.

Also, I noticed that you didn't talk at all about domestic policy here.

  futurist

1 & 2 - Russia wouldn't get the same investment from France because much of that was politically motivated to help Russia moblise its army quicker as a counter to the Germany threat to France.  Germany wouldn't have the same level of funds as its still busy developing itself and its empire.  Also a German-Russia bloc is likely to deter, at least to a degree, investment from elsewhere but you might still get some from Britain.

  Also this assumes that Germany will agree to carve up Austria-Hungary and hence lose de facto influence over all of the empire. 

3)  Agree with you about Sakhalin and Manchuria.  It would take fairly draconian forced population movements - both ways I suspect - to make Manchuria a viable Russia settlement.  Which even if you were willing is going to make for prolonged emnity with China and further mistrust from other powers.

4)  In the longer term eurofed's more draconian approach is probably the only way of securing prolonged Russia control of such regions, especially if you wish genuine democracy in those areas.

5)  Britain and the rest of Europe would definitely be worried by a German-Russian alliance, even if it doesn't involve an arbitrary carve up of the Austro-Hungarian empire. It will definitely be a leading member in the alliance that will automatically develop in the face of such a German-Russian alliance.  They won't seek war but will definitely fight if forced by further attempts to destablise Europe by say carving up A-H or the Ottoman empire.

6)  Bulgaria was a better choice if Russia had to but it got itself into a serious mess after the 1st Balkan war so Russia decided it couldn't support it after that point.  Serbia was less valuable in itself as it was so much more vulnerable to both economic and military pressure from an hostile Vienna.

[Side-note eurofed and I are old sparring 'partners' over the issue of democracy or autocratic centralised control in Europe with radically different views. He liked to demonise Britain as the reason why Europe hasn't been united into one single empire despite the fact that while Britain has long been the most prominent supporter of liberalism in Europe its the fact most of Europe has taken the same stance against assorted conquerors that has preserved its variety. Eurofed won't talk much about domestic policies as he's a believer in autocracy rather than human rights so its a non-issue for him. People do as their told or else. ]

[MarshalBraginsky]

From 1885 onwards, Bulgaria had a falling out with Russia due to certain factors, namely who gets to rule the Bulgarian state after Alexander of Battenberg was forced to abdicate. Because of Bulgaria's falling out with Russia, Serbia was the only pro-Russian state left. It also helped that Serbian intellectuals had also studied in Russia before the de jure independence of Serbia from the Ottoman Empire.

My ideal "Axis" bloc would be Germany-Russia-Japan, namely because of naval projection, although Russia-USA-Japan would also be ideal, due to the larger economic power of the United States over Germany. Moreover, as I said in an earlier post, American corporations have a massive potential to make profits from conducting their business in building up Russia's economic potential, especially with regards to railways.

Regarding domestic issues though, I would actually support Georgy Gapon's attempts to improve the working conditions of ordinary Russians to prevent them from falling under the influence of Marxists.