Post by futurist on Jan 25, 2019 4:30:08 GMT
I know that I have some stuff to respond to in the other threads, and I'll eventually get around to doing that. For the time being, though, here goes:
What if the Three Emperors' League ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_the_Three_Emperors ) would have survived?
The Three Emperors' League was an alliance of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia which broke down in the late 1880s as a result of Austro-Russian disputes over the Balkans. However, what if Russia would have been more conciliatory and thus this alliance would have survived (or been recreated)?
It strikes me as rather foolish of Russia to abandon this alliance over the Balkans considering that the Balkans shouldn't have been a high-priority issue for Russia. The Balkans had and still have low human capital and, in any case, Russia did not plan on annexing the Balkans. Thus, IMHO, the smart move for Russia would have been to give Austria-Hungary a free hand in the Balkans on the condition that A-H and Germany support Russia's claims to both Trebizond and the Armenian Vilayets of the Ottoman Empire.
Russia had little of value to gain at Germany's and Austria-Hungary's expense even in the aftermath of a successful war with these countries. Thus, Russia should have remained allied with these countries and not have allied with France. True, Russia might have gotten less French loans in such a scenario, but that would have been a price well worth paying for a continued alliance with Germany and A-H. Basically, the territories that should have been of interest to Russia would have been Trebizond, the Armenian Vilayets of the Ottoman Empire, the Caspian Sea coastline of Persia, northern Afghanistan, Xinjiang, Mongolia, and perhaps Tibet and/or the sparsely populated parts of Inner Manchuria. I certainly don't see either Germany or A-H actually going to war with Russia for the sake of any of these territories. Thus, Russia should have remained allies with these countries in order to protect its western flank in the event of any future wars of expansion that Russia might launch in Asia.
Anyway, what are your thoughts on this? Indeed, what do you think would have happened had the Three Emperors' League survived?
What if the Three Emperors' League ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_the_Three_Emperors ) would have survived?
The Three Emperors' League was an alliance of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia which broke down in the late 1880s as a result of Austro-Russian disputes over the Balkans. However, what if Russia would have been more conciliatory and thus this alliance would have survived (or been recreated)?
It strikes me as rather foolish of Russia to abandon this alliance over the Balkans considering that the Balkans shouldn't have been a high-priority issue for Russia. The Balkans had and still have low human capital and, in any case, Russia did not plan on annexing the Balkans. Thus, IMHO, the smart move for Russia would have been to give Austria-Hungary a free hand in the Balkans on the condition that A-H and Germany support Russia's claims to both Trebizond and the Armenian Vilayets of the Ottoman Empire.
Russia had little of value to gain at Germany's and Austria-Hungary's expense even in the aftermath of a successful war with these countries. Thus, Russia should have remained allied with these countries and not have allied with France. True, Russia might have gotten less French loans in such a scenario, but that would have been a price well worth paying for a continued alliance with Germany and A-H. Basically, the territories that should have been of interest to Russia would have been Trebizond, the Armenian Vilayets of the Ottoman Empire, the Caspian Sea coastline of Persia, northern Afghanistan, Xinjiang, Mongolia, and perhaps Tibet and/or the sparsely populated parts of Inner Manchuria. I certainly don't see either Germany or A-H actually going to war with Russia for the sake of any of these territories. Thus, Russia should have remained allies with these countries in order to protect its western flank in the event of any future wars of expansion that Russia might launch in Asia.
Anyway, what are your thoughts on this? Indeed, what do you think would have happened had the Three Emperors' League survived?