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Post by futurist on Jan 25, 2019 4:32:37 GMT
Do you think that a Russia which would have avoided Communism (either a surviving Tsarist Russia or a post-Tsarist but non-Communist Russia) would have been more successful at Russifying the Near Abroad (through mass Russian settlement in the Near Abroad) than the Soviet Union was in real life? If so, how much more successful do you think it would have been? FTR, the Near Abroad are the other ex-USSR countries--as in, all of the ex-USSR countries other than Russia itself. Also, I previously posted some maps and charts about this topic here: historum.com/threads/would-a-non-communist-russia-have-been-more-successful-at-russifying-the-near-abroad.176385/
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Jan 28, 2019 0:19:53 GMT
One major problem with this is that how do you get the peasantry that doesn't have enough resources to move into other lands within the Russian Empire to settle there, especially Central Asia and the lands that are designated as the "Pale of Settlement"? Industrialization on a massive scale wouldn't happen in a non-communist Russian state, although agriculture would have survived intact (this would be very useful for the cultivation of wool for textile production).
Also, the attempted Russification policies in the Baltic States had not only failed, but it also ensured that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would become more hostile to Russia down the road.
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Post by futurist on Jan 28, 2019 7:55:54 GMT
What exactly makes you so sure that massive-scale industrialization won't happen in a non-Communist Russia? After all, one would think that even a non-Communist Russia would be capable of doing this--at least if it would have had sufficiently competent leadership and perhaps a steady stream of investment.
Also, I wasn't necessarily thinking of ethnic Russians settling in rural areas; rather, they could have settled in urban (and suburban) areas instead.
As for the Baltic states, the mistake appears to have been to try Russifying the existing population of these territories. A much better strategy IMHO would have been to try flooding the Baltic states with ethnic Russian settlers like the Soviet Union partly managed to do.
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Jan 29, 2019 2:55:09 GMT
What exactly makes you so sure that massive-scale industrialization won't happen in a non-Communist Russia? After all, one would think that even a non-Communist Russia would be capable of doing this--at least if it would have had sufficiently competent leadership and perhaps a steady stream of investment. Also, I wasn't necessarily thinking of ethnic Russians settling in rural areas; rather, they could have settled in urban (and suburban) areas instead. As for the Baltic states, the mistake appears to have been to try Russifying the existing population of these territories. A much better strategy IMHO would have been to try flooding the Baltic states with ethnic Russian settlers like the Soviet Union partly managed to do. The break neck speed involved in the industrialization of the USSR happened because of Stalin's paranoia about a future conflict in which the Soviets would break out. It was also costly in that there was also a famine that occurred as well (namely, the Holodomor). A non-communist Russia would not only have maintained its population, but those very same population who would still work on their farms would have been able to feed the urban population. Yes, while a non-communist Russia would also have a steady stream of investment and a competent leadership, they would also be affected by the Great Depression,. Flooding the Baltic States with ethnic Russians would simply have resulted in future ethnic tensions between the Russian settlers and the Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians down the road, just like OTL.
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Post by futurist on Jan 29, 2019 5:13:53 GMT
Yes, but please keep in mind that the lack of a Russian Civil War could compensate for this. Russia didn't industrialize much between 1913 and 1928 due to the Russian Civil War. Thus, if there's no Russian Civil War, Russia will industrialize at a slower rate but will also have more time to industrialize--thus possibly still ending up at approximately the same position in 1938 that it did in real life in regards to industrialization.
Agreed that a famine was unlikely to occur--especially on such an extremely massive scale--in a non-Communist Russia. Also, while a non-Communist Russia would be affected by the Great Depression, it would likely experience the same recovery from this Depression that other countries did. Afterwards, it could resume its industrialization.
As for the Baltic states, the problem in our TL is that the USSR didn't flood the Baltic states with enough Russians. Had the Russian percentage in Latvia and Estonia been 60% instead of 30%, Russia's odds of permanently keeping these territories would have been much higher.
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Jan 31, 2019 3:15:42 GMT
Yes, but please keep in mind that the lack of a Russian Civil War could compensate for this. Russia didn't industrialize much between 1913 and 1928 due to the Russian Civil War. Thus, if there's no Russian Civil War, Russia will industrialize at a slower rate but will also have more time to industrialize--thus possibly still ending up at approximately the same position in 1938 that it did in real life in regards to industrialization. Agreed that a famine was unlikely to occur--especially on such an extremely massive scale--in a non-Communist Russia. Also, while a non-Communist Russia would be affected by the Great Depression, it would likely experience the same recovery from this Depression that other countries did. Afterwards, it could resume its industrialization. As for the Baltic states, the problem in our TL is that the USSR didn't flood the Baltic states with enough Russians. Had the Russian percentage in Latvia and Estonia been 60% instead of 30%, Russia's odds of permanently keeping these territories would have been much higher. And Lithuania would have also gotten a larger Russian or Belarusian minority in the process as well. A non-communist Russia might also have kept Belarus and Ukraine too, so the absence of the USSR would also see a larger Ukrainian population surviving as well. The absence of the Holodomor would also erase the future seeds of conflict that happened IOTL right now between Russia and Ukraine.
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