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Post by punkrockbowler805 on May 18, 2016 3:59:24 GMT
My money is on spacex and China now with the reality tv show as a doomed Roanoke- donner party equivalent and India.
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Post by Kubo Caskett on May 18, 2016 20:30:35 GMT
Me, it would be most likely the United States, because they have the most resources to do so, though I would imagine China would rival that by the 2020's.
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Post by huojin on May 18, 2016 20:30:54 GMT
I'll believe in Chinese colonisation of Mars when they can put something around the planet. Doesn't even need to be on the bloody thing. Until then, it's all pie in the sky nonsense. India at least put something in orbit. Hell even the ESA has sent shit to Mars. Right now the only people likely to put things on Mars are NASA and SpaceX. Their collaboration to put aim to put a Red Dragon on Mars in 2018 (read: later than 2018) seems the most promising thing in quite some time. As for colonising... it's a bit like Christopher Columbus has just made the first few voyages to the Caribbean and trying to predict that Great Britain will become the premier colonial power in North America. Fun, but fruitless
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Post by eDGT on May 19, 2016 3:41:03 GMT
Well considering that Britain did become the premier colonial power and all that... that'd be less fruitless and more Nostradamus Anyway this is the Future History thread, random predictions based off of conjecture are the only reason this thread exists! My own No Prize Prediction is that the colonisation of Mars will be spearheaded by whoever launches the mining campaign, since terraforming will take centuries at the lowest estimate, most likely a few thousand years. The best bet is to expand former mine shafts and settle those. And on that prediction it would not surprise me if the colonisation of Mars is carried out by an American company using Chinese labour, assuming it takes place in the next 20-50 years anyway.
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Mathuen
Junior Member
马萨诸塞州, 中华人民共和国 (Trapped Yo)
Posts: 70
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Post by Mathuen on May 19, 2016 5:54:33 GMT
Depends upon what we mean by "colonize". Do we mean a couple of trophy habitats that are basically a couple of sheds tied together that'll be abandoned in a couple years and left to sit for half a century until maybe someone dusts them off again? In which case maybe some private groups, China, and India.
By colonize do we mean actual continuous habitation and development of the planet and use of its resources? Well, in which case i'd push that off to maybe some time in the 22nd century, especially since it will likely take a century before Mars becomes close to economical compared to much cheaper, logistically easier, closer, and richer sources of both resources and easy habitation like NEOs. In which case i'd have to ask which powers during that period are most likely to be dominant. Personally I suspect China, India, and various African Blocs (a fourth contender might be some sort of Ummah-centered Cultural Bloc headed by Indonesia) to be the premier powers during such a time period, so they might spearhead such a campaign.
On the other hand Mars might still be ignored especially if its relative gains don't rise fast enough compared to the rest of the inner system. In which case it might actually be lesser powers that colonize Mars simply because the major powers have no big interest in it. It'd be amusing to see Mars colonized by say, Eastern European countries or the Andes for just such a reason.
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Post by punkrockbowler805 on May 30, 2016 9:34:17 GMT
Andean Olympus mons
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 19, 2016 5:13:38 GMT
If the EU pulls together, it has a shot, as do the US, India, and China. Maybe South Korea, Canada, Australia, South Africa, and Nigeria, especially the latter. Also Brazil, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Mexico.
Basically you need infrastructure and population for such a thing. There may well be a Scramble for Mars.
Russia's current demographic problems mean it's not likely to be of any great influence for the next several decades to a century or more. Their age has passed as a great power just about.
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Post by guyverman1990 on Jul 11, 2016 4:59:00 GMT
Assuming China does colonize Mars eventually, China's totalitarian system will cause the colonists to crave for independence within a few generations. It will be a repeat of how inequality amungst Britain and its colonies triggered rebellion in the New World back in 1776.
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Post by punkrockbowler805 on Jul 19, 2016 0:00:45 GMT
If they use it as a Tibetan dumping ground and they still go with pacifism that might not end well.
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Post by Krall on Jul 19, 2016 0:46:31 GMT
The Outer Space Treaty should be taken into consideration here, considering it forbids any country from claiming sovereignty over outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies. There'd need to be a revised/overriding treaty, or a convenient loophole/work around sorted out before any country can colonise Mars. You might be able to treat it like international waters, so any vessel sent into space are under the jurisdiction of their "flag state" and thus if they land on Mars to act as a permanent building they'd be within a country's juridiction, but this still wouldn't allow for claims to areas of the Martian surface or any Martian resources.
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Post by eDGT on Jul 19, 2016 23:13:39 GMT
The Outer Space Treaty should be taken into consideration here, considering it forbids any country from claiming sovereignty over outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies. There'd need to be a revised/overriding treaty, or a convenient loophole/work around sorted out before any country can colonise Mars. You might be able to treat it like international waters, so any vessel sent into space are under the jurisdiction of their "flag state" and thus if they land on Mars to act as a permanent building they'd be within a country's juridiction, but this still wouldn't allow for claims to areas of the Martian surface or any Martian resources. Looks like Liechtenstein never signed up! Also large parts of Central Asia, the Balkans, and sub Saharan Africa. Cambodia can, no. Cambodia MUST into Space!
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Post by MinnesotaNationalist on Jul 20, 2016 2:27:17 GMT
The Outer Space Treaty should be taken into consideration here, considering it forbids any country from claiming sovereignty over outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies. There'd need to be a revised/overriding treaty, or a convenient loophole/work around sorted out before any country can colonise Mars. You might be able to treat it like international waters, so any vessel sent into space are under the jurisdiction of their "flag state" and thus if they land on Mars to act as a permanent building they'd be within a country's juridiction, but this still wouldn't allow for claims to areas of the Martian surface or any Martian resources. Looks like Liechtenstein never signed up! Also large parts of Central Asia, the Balkans, and sub Saharan Africa. Cambodia can, no. Cambodia MUST into Space! I'm personally putting my bets on Space Malta. "You Kicked us off one rock 1, You kicked us off another 2, But you'll never kick us off this one 3!" 1: Rhodes 2: Malta 3: Whatever planet (or asteroid) they end up taking over
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Post by orvillethird on Jul 20, 2016 13:19:20 GMT
I think it's likely to be various private sector visionaries and crazies.
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Post by eDGT on Jul 20, 2016 18:35:10 GMT
I'm personally putting my bets on Space Malta. "You Kicked us off one rock 1, You kicked us off another 2, But you'll never kick us off this one 3!" 1: Rhodes 2: Malta 3: Whatever planet (or asteroid) they end up taking over So the Knight's of Saint John, but with Space Marine armour? I'm down with that.
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Post by huojin on Jul 25, 2016 20:53:32 GMT
I'm personally putting my bets on Space Malta. "You Kicked us off one rock 1, You kicked us off another 2, But you'll never kick us off this one 3!" 1: Rhodes 2: Malta 3: Whatever planet (or asteroid) they end up taking over So the Knight's of Saint John, but with Space Marine armour? I'm down with that. ... I didn't realise how badly I wanted this until now. Though my idea of space marine armour is significantly less predicated on 40K cuz I've never played it. Awesome idea nonetheless.
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