German Civil War?

[westvirginiarebel]

What are the odds of a civil war in Germany after World War One, and what might the outcome have been? Earlier nationalism, Communism, or something else?

[MinnesotaNationalist]

Technically, Germany was in a civil war, the German Revolutions of 1918-19. Even if the revolution was protracted to a full scale war, I don't think much would be different, maybe a bit more hate for the Communists

[tardis218]

The chances of a Communist victory in the German Revolutions of 1918-19 were very, very unlikely. The movement was too unorganized and has several different organizations rising up. And when they did try to make some sort of unified one it failed. Along with that, the Freikorps and the Weimar Government just had more troops. These were workers rising up, the Government had officially trained troops with them. And the Freikorps were made out of disillusioned soldiers that just came back from the Western and Eastern fronts. They saw their Kaiserreich fall apart. They were angry, and wanted to stop any chance of extremists like this from taking control. And it's hard to fight against angry, professionally trained troops when your just some workers with some weapons.

I mean, if you do want a Communist Germany prior to WW2 and you wanted it to be somewhat realistic, I would say make a KPD victory in the German elections of March 1933. Hitler had the Nazis had 196 seats, the SPD (the Social Democrats of Germany) had 121 and the KPD (the communists) had 100. This was the election that let Hitler take over for good, and all elections prior for this one would require a fair amount of ASBs for the KPD to win. So this would be the only chance a TL would get for a Communist Germany.

Maybe do something where the SPD had bad relations with the workers, or the Depression was somehow even worse, or something along those lines if you want a KPD victory. But, that's my two cents.

[eDGT]

As MN and Tardis have mentioned a Spartakist victory is unlikely. If you can get the revolts to hold on a bit longer, and maybe include some conservative paranoia that the SPD is going to try and work out an understanding with the Communists, and you could have the German military and Freikorps rocking the Social Democrats out of power. What follows could be a military Republic, they may invite Wilhelm II to stay in power, or pass it on to his eldest son, or follow through with Ebert's plan on appointing one of the younger sons to the throne.

[tardis218]

Mar 23, 2016 23:07:41 GMT eDGT said:

As MN and Tardis have mentioned a Spartakist victory is unlikely. If you can get the revolts to hold on a bit longer, and maybe include some conservative paranoia that the SPD is going to try and work out an understanding with the Communists, and you could have the German military and Freikorps rocking the Social Democrats out of power. What follows could be a military Republic, they may invite Wilhelm II to stay in power, or pass it on to his eldest son, or follow through with Ebert's plan on appointing one of the younger sons to the throne.

I mean, I do see where you're coming from with putting Wilhelm's family back on the throne but imagine what the Allies would think. I would think they rather not have an unstable emperor in control on a nation going to shit quickly. 

[eDGT]

Mar 24, 2016 2:22:42 GMT tardis218 said:

I mean, I do see where you're coming from with putting Wilhelm's family back on the throne but imagine what the Allies would think. I would think they rather not have an unstable emperor in control on a nation going to shit quickly. 

Well the new monarch would either have been neutered by a socialist government or an absolute puppet of the the army, though the Entente would not necessarily know that, at least not until they met the new Kaiser.

There was a chance in early November that the monarchy could have been retained under Wilhelm II, but Ebert was scaring everybody into thinking he was going to support the revolution, so von Baden talked the Kaiser down himself. There's also Scheidemann proclaiming a republic, which was to get the jump on Leibknecht from proclaiming a Soviet, this was after slick Willy had already abdicated but there was still some thought as to appointing his eldest.

A military coup by forces in Berlin or Spa is possible in this period, but considering the on-going combat I doubt any famous generals like Hindenberg or Ludendorff would be involved.

The other option is post armistice, when the military withdrew from the front. The treaty would not be issued until June, which left seven months for the remnants of the army to crack some Lefty heads. I think that Wilson's insistence on a German republic was mostly him taking advantage of the SPD proclamation of one, therefore if that were to disappear before any treaty was agreed upon then it could always be scrapped in favour of the constitutional monarchy which was initially proposed.

[tardis218]

Mar 24, 2016 10:38:18 GMT eDGT said:

Mar 24, 2016 2:22:42 GMT tardis218 said:

I mean, I do see where you're coming from with putting Wilhelm's family back on the throne but imagine what the Allies would think. I would think they rather not have an unstable emperor in control on a nation going to shit quickly. 

Well the new monarch would either have been neutered by a socialist government or an absolute puppet of the the army, though the Entente would not necessarily know that, at least not until they met the new Kaiser.

There was a chance in early November that the monarchy could have been retained under Wilhelm II, but Ebert was scaring everybody into thinking he was going to support the revolution, so von Baden talked the Kaiser down himself. There's also Scheidemann proclaiming a republic, which was to get the jump on Leibknecht from proclaiming a Soviet, this was after slick Willy had already abdicated but there was still some thought as to appointing his eldest.

A military coup by forces in Berlin or Spa is possible in this period, but considering the on-going combat I doubt any famous generals like Hindenberg or Ludendorff would be involved.

The other option is post armistice, when the military withdrew from the front. The treaty would not be issued until June, which left seven months for the remnants of the army to crack some Lefty heads. I think that Wilson's insistence on a German republic was mostly him taking advantage of the SPD proclamation of one, therefore if that were to disappear before any treaty was agreed upon then it could always be scrapped in favour of the constitutional monarchy which was initially proposed.

Huh, pretty interesting.