Plausible Violent Overthrow of American Government?

[Rhand]

In the past, and the overthrow can originate out of any ideology.

I have thought of a couple things.

1) If the CSA survived, I think it would be inevitable that, being forced to give inordinate power to the military to protect from its Northern foe, there would be a military putsch in the new state, as has been the case in Pakistan and other countries in OTL. I think the same would be true for a northern state based in New England, as in Decades of Darkness or Napoleon's Legacy.

2) A Worse Panic of 1893, or a period of unfavorable climate, combined with the rising Socialist and Populist movements.

3) A European War between 1870-1914 leads to even more immigration, which brings in socialist agitators from Europe and inflames nativism and populism in America. This can be superimposed upon an economic depression or a climate change.

[lordroel]

Could this not be a good scenario, the Bonus Army who as a result U.S. Army intervention which drove them out of their decided to storm the white house.

[Rhand]

I like it, but I think we need a bit more distant POD, with major players in the army backing the putsch as a way to secure power.

[lordroel]

Mar 25, 2016 14:40:43 GMT Rhand said:

I like it, but I think we need a bit more distant POD, with major players in the army backing the putsch as a way to secure power.

Maybe Gen. Douglas MacArthur uses more force than in OTL, this could trigger public sympathy for the Bonus Army who uses it to launch something major with some backing of sympathizers in the army who feel that Gen. Douglas MacArthur went to far.

[orvillethird]

I could see an early 60's coup, possibly by Lyman Lemnitzer or Edwin Walker. I could also see an effective coup in 2011 if Congress decides to take action to back up its disapproval of the Libya War, or if military officers have intel on the rebels in Libya...and their Al-Quaida connections.
However, it's most likely early on, particularly under Adams (his actions violated the Constitution and Bill of Rights- to say nothing about effectively allying with our old enemy, and abandoning our ally) or Jefferson (Federalist officers might have a temptation to overthrow him).

[punkrockbowler805]

Reagan loses in 84 over a worse Iran contra. Moral majority goes sons of Jacob - handmaid's tale on Dukakis.

[CaliBoy1990]

Mar 25, 2016 13:43:17 GMT Rhand said:

In the past, and the overthrow can originate out of any ideology.

I have thought of a couple things.

1) If the CSA survived, I think it would be inevitable that, being forced to give inordinate power to the military to protect from its Northern foe, there would be a military putsch in the new state, as has been the case in Pakistan and other countries in OTL. I think the same would be true for a northern state based in New England, as in Decades of Darkness or Napoleon's Legacy.

2) A Worse Panic of 1893, or a period of unfavorable climate, combined with the rising Socialist and Populist movements.

3) A European War between 1870-1914 leads to even more immigration, which brings in socialist agitators from Europe and inflames nativism and populism in America. This can be superimposed upon an economic depression or a climate change.

Probably not-barring a fairly long series of major PODs and other developments, like in Reds!(a TL I'd recommend to anybody, btw!), something like this, plausibly speaking, would have been rather more likely to happen in a *U.S. like, say, similar to the one in DoD or the Republican Union in What Madness Is This?, or even the badly broken U.S. in Ward Moore's Bring the Jubilee, than OTL's America.....(then again, I suppose a point could be made that neither of the two AH.com ATLs mentioned were exactly all that plausible; the former tried to be a Type I but just fell rather short and the latter was never meant to be necessarily plausible at all, in the first place, while Moore's AH development was mostly a background, as I recall.).

Firstly, although seemingly fairly popular trope these days, the likelihood of a dictatorship in the Union post-Civil War loss is pretty low-Lincoln in particular was never inclined towards authoritarianism, and the U.S. wouldn't have suffered too badly in the long term overall; another massive spurt of industrialization was just around the corner, which would have offset any economic loss that would have occurred from the South breaking away earlier on.

Secondly, the Panic of 1893 was bad, but also not as profoundly bad as the Great Depression.

Thirdly, without a rather substantial POD, there isn't much that could make nativism all that much worse than than what happened IOTL, TBH. And global climate change wasn't a problem until the late '70s, early '80s IOTL.(well, at least when it comes to anthropogenic change, anyway.)

On the other hand, while I must admit that I haven't read Napoleon's Legacy.....for those who haven't read Decades of Darkness, for New England to turn *Fascist(they were called the "Vitalists" ITTL, IIRC), a fairly long list of some very specific things had to happen. New England, firstly, had to lose a war, and then the Vitalist movement had to be developed over a period of years; then Shane Mullins had to ascend to a position of power(don't recall if he was the VP or something else at this moment, though, so clarifications are welcome.) and then the assassination of Calvin Franklin had to be engineered before Mullins could essentially become TTL's Mussolini. And even then, these days I still don't quite find it to be 100% believable. The *U.S., on the other hand, was a heavily militaristic & imperialistic nation, and dominated largely by slaveowners at that-just going by these three alone, it would have required rather less to throw that country over the edge(perhaps if the 1932 elections ITTL had gone the other way, one could argue that, that alone could potentially have set the U.S. on an eventual path to at least a virtual dictatorship).

And with What Madness Is This?, well, that U.S. was pretty much being set up to turn into a nightmarish dictatorship from the beginning.

[punkrockbowler805]

Business plot where wall street tycoons asked several military people including MacArthur and smedley butler who ratted them out to take over with a fascist veterans sent claiming Roosevelt was sick.

The joint chiefs of staff apparently threatened one against Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis.

[CaliBoy1990]

May 18, 2016 1:28:11 GMT punkrockbowler805 said:

Business plot where wall street tycoons asked several military people including MacArthur and smedley butler who ratted them out to take over with a fascist veterans sent claiming Roosevelt was sick.

The joint chiefs of staff apparently threatened one against Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis.

Ah, yes, the "Business Plot". While I don't think it was likely to succeed(and not for very long even if so), it certainly is a reminder that even this country hasn't been immune from these kinds of sinister plottings; just imagine how something like that could have been rather less difficult to pull off, in a different universe where the U.S. was rather less democratic, or more militaristic/imperialistic, etc.

[Epic History]

PoD: No crop blight in Germany in late 1916, staving off mass hunger until 1919.

With starvation not eminent in the fall of 1918, Imperial Germany elects to continue resistance into the next year. This necessitates large scale spring offensives by the Entente, with the breaching of the Hindenburg Line taking six weeks of gruelling high intensity warfare. Massive casualties essentially breaks the French Army, with mutinies similar to those of 1917 and Socialist agitation in the streets essentially forcing the burden of finishing the war onto the Anglo-Americans, who are able to cut off German armies in Belgium and begin attacks into the Saarland as well as into Alsace-Lorraine by mid-May. The Entente offensives halt after clearing out the West bank of the Rhine, thanks to massive losses on both sides and worsening crisis of Spanish Flu only adding to the misery.

At this point, France is nearly into a Civil War while the Anglo-Americans facing increasing discontent on the homefront thanks to massive losses. The situation developing in France also prevents a danger, as strikes and inter-French fighting could destroy Entente supply chains to the front. The Germans meanwhile have also sustained impossible to support losses, and with their industrial heartland threatened along with an impending food shortage lingering in the air, are likewise at the end of the their rope. Both sides quickly agree to a truce by early June, and peace talks begin by July.

Thanks to American diplomatic pressure due to growing concern over the growing threat of Socialist revolution in both France and Germany, the UK quietly ends its blockade of the German Empire. This allows for emergency importation of food, while the truce allows the Reichswehr to transfer units to put down minor Bolshevik uprisings ongoing throughout the realm; joint actions with Anglo-American troops secure Alsace-Lorraine from an attempted Socialist rebellion. This development angers many in France and causes some discomfort among the British populace, but it serves to secure the Reich from falling to the Red hordes.

Ultimately, peace is declared by the end of the Summer. Germany gives up her colonies, is forced to shrink her navy to one third the tonnage of the Royal Navy, pay reparations, hand over Lorraine to the French, and demilitarize the Alsace as well as the Saarland for 20 years. In return, the Anglo-Americans recognize the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and give the Germans the green light to begin operations against the Communists in Russia. In this effort, they will work in tandem as the Anglo-Americans land a combined force of five divisions in Russia, at Archangelsk as well as in Estonia.

Back in France, the news of the peace causes an immediate uproar. The near destruction of an entire Generation has led the French to a no-compromise position with Germany, but their inability to bring about more favorable terms due to their internal struggles leaves them with little course to accept the treaty. Rampant Anti-British and American sentiment flares up, with regular attacks on the aforementioned nations’ personnel as well as attacks on their equipment force a rapid withdrawal in France. With their departure, the full attention of the French public falls upon itself, and following a series of incidents, a full scale civil war breaks out between the Government, Nationalists, and Socialists. What is left of the flower of France’s youth will proceed to destroy itself in three years of additional carnage.

On the Eastern front, Entente aid allows Yudenich’s White forces in the Baltic to seize Petrograd and allow the Finns to overrun Karelia as well as the Kola Peninsula in conjunction with British and American forces. Still, despite all of this the White Offensive towards Moscow collapses thanks to unsecure supply lines and command defects. In the aftermath, Yudenich forms a union between Estonia and Ingria, while to the South Denikin retreats with his forces to the Don-Kuban basin, where the form a state with the local Cossacks. The sudden assassination of Lenin by Left-SR revolutionaries prevents the Soviets from capitalizing on their success, and initiates an Inter-Red civil war punctuated by continued skirmishes with White forces. In the East, Kolchak establishes his own White state, containing all of Siberia east of the Yenisei with Entente and Japanese support. What was once the Russian Empire is now but a shimmering pool of death and destruction, barely contained by a sense of mutual destruction in case of continued fighting at the moment.

In the United States, the loss of nearly 500,000 men has had a profound effect on the national consciousness. When President Wilson attempts to bring about an American entry into the League of Nations, it provokes violent street protests. Minor agitation by Radical left wing elements likewise incurs a violent response, particularly from returning veterans who have seen the results of such things in Europe. In 1920, the American electorate overwhelming turns against the Democrats and votes for General Leonard Wood for President, who promises to be hard on Reds and to ensure continued American security as well as neutrality.

In 1922, combined impacts of Post-War demobilization and the near destruction of European trade cascade into a stock market crisis, initiating what comes to be known as the Black Week and throwing the world into a major recession. In the US, widespread Labor unrest occurs due to a unemployment and reduced wages, leading to several Red-linked strikes. This, combined with a failure of the Federal government to properly support returning Vets proves too much for the many millions of WWI doughboys, who organize themselves into volunteer militias that put down Socialists in the street and lead armed protests for support of their poor members.

By 1923, a charismatic politician from Louisiana by the name of Huey Long emerges, whose right-wing populist policies as well as his short service in 1919 endear him to frustrated vets. In 1924, he is able to quietly remove D.C. Stephenson as leader of the KKK (Which has surged in membership in the wake of a the ongoing Red scare and reactions against foreign influences) and largely begin to emerge disparate elements of his base into a unified party. Up until this point, President Wood has gotten along decently with Long and his supporters, with most of the ire falling on Congress and leftist elements in the nation. However, the sudden death of Wood by a stroke in 1925 leads to his Vice President, Irvine Lenroot, ascending to the Oval Office. Lenroot quickly makes enemies of Long, as Lenroot is a progressive who tries to placate the labor forces while initiating crackdowns on elements of Long’s support.

The situation finally comes to head following Lenroot’s soft handling a major labor strike over the course of May, in 1926. Having gained the quiet acceptance of the Military, Big business, and large scale support in many areas of the nation, Long and armed cadres descend on Washington. They begin a putsch, and after a short siege of Congress and the White House, decapitate the Federal government. Uprisings elsewhere in response by Leftists and as well as moderates opposed to the coup are put down over the course of several months, due to their lack of central control as well inability to gain a sizeable following elsewhere. Newly installed President Long and his “Nationalist Freedom” Party reign supreme in the US, and begin a series of infrastructure improvements as well as a military build-up to bring the nation out of its economic mire as well insure the US can never be challenged by a foreign power in the foreseeable future.

[abdulhadipasha]

Mar 25, 2016 13:43:17 GMT Rhand said:

In the past, and the overthrow can originate out of any ideology.

I have thought of a couple things.

1) If the CSA survived, I think it would be inevitable that, being forced to give inordinate power to the military to protect from its Northern foe, there would be a military putsch in the new state, as has been the case in Pakistan and other countries in OTL. I think the same would be true for a northern state based in New England, as in Decades of Darkness or Napoleon's Legacy.

2) A Worse Panic of 1893, or a period of unfavorable climate, combined with the rising Socialist and Populist movements.

3) A European War between 1870-1914 leads to even more immigration, which brings in socialist agitators from Europe and inflames nativism and populism in America. This can be superimposed upon an economic depression or a climate change.

1) I don't see how it's a given there's a Cold War or outright hostility between the USA and CSA. They wanted to be left alone, we wanted them to stay. If they'd won, our attitude would probably have been "We didn't want them anyway!"
2) A LOT worse panic, I take it. Maybe - but who would be the force behind the violent overthrow?
3) If Immigrants escape Bad Things to come here, as per history, they are going to be grateful, not hostile.

It's hard to imagine a sequence of events that would lead to a violent overthrow. The only one I can think of is the Great Depression - maybe if WWII hadn't happened and it dragged on a lot longer... Very early on it might have been possible as well, although I would think the early USA would be in greater danger of politically breaking up than having the Federal government overthrown by violence.

[MinnesotaNationalist]

One scenario I'm coming up with is this:

In 1861, a group of Radical Republicans (some of those John Brown boys) occupy some of the polling stations in nearby bordering slave states, most notably Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia, to make sure that Abraham Lincoln wins the election. Abraham Lincoln wins (and of course would have still won without the fraud), and this infuriates Democrats, some of which go on to assassinate Lincoln and his running mate before they could even get into office, and so when Buchanan's term is up, the President Pro Tempore of the US Senate (at that time the succession said that the President Pro Tempore was next in line after the VP), Benjamin Fitzpatrick, becomes president. Republicans become infuriated and start an insurgency.

[warsie]

Werent there people who wanted to revolt.against an election in the 1870s after the civil war? Like military units loyal to a president whoch was voted out in a contested election offered to provide force in backup