Calm at Fort Sumter

[MinnesotaNationalist]

I always see the discussions about the American Civil War of the Confederates winning that decisive victory they needed to win the war, such as at Gettysburg (or in my opinion, a more decisive victory at the Seven Days). But what if the war never even really began? What if Fort Sumter wasn't attacked?

Between the last 3 1/2 months of Buchanen and first monarch and a half of Lincoln, the south had more or less peacefully broke off from the Union, and it was only at Sumter that the war really started. The obvious divergence would probably be that Lincoln orders the surrender of Sumter ("Sumters not worth a war").

three major questions come up from this:
-would the war even start (just hitting a false start). Lincoln did want to end the crises diplomatically, and maybe when the south realized slavery wouldn't be abolished (this time) they might return.
-would the south stay independent or rejoin the union? See above
-Would Virginia and other states that joined after Sumter still join? Virginia declaration of succession came a bit too soon after Sumter to really say, but I believe the others succeeded because Virginia did. But if Virginia didn't succeede, then Lee would be a Union general, and the South would lose one of it's biggest advantages 

[rescribor]

My (somewhat uneducated) guesses:

Yes, I believe war will start. Political goals of the South (not to be outvoted on matters on trade and tariffs by more populous North) could be achieved by peaceful secession, but economical main goal (apart from tariffs), which was to allow creating of new slave states, could not. Point of contention was Kansas, that tried to achieve a measure of neutrality. Both North and South have been preparing to invade it (to safeguard it from the each other invasions, apparently), but South knew it's less numerous forces in vicinity could achieve victory only by striking first.

Nope, rejoining the Union would mean eating crow for a lot of Southern statesman and planters, also would not achieve any hope of safeguarding their economic interests. Nothing is more powerful than desire not to own one's mistakes, combined with economic incentives.

Virginia was politically dominated by "shoreline" representatives, whose economic interests were closer to Louisiana or South Carolina than Pennsylvania or Michigan. As a result, they were closer to Southern political stance. I believe they will still secede.