Post by Epic History on May 23, 2016 3:05:21 GMT
This is going to be the first in a series of threads I hope to do where I outline PoDs on how the Germans/European Axis could do better and also show the weird coincidence of history that at the end of multiple years during the Second World War, Nazi Germany had multiple avenues open to it to achieve the aforementioned extra success. For this first one, I’m going to outline some PoDs for 1941 (As the title suggests 
).
Historically, during the operational pause of Typhoon, Hitler nearly ordered the cancellation of continued operations at the behest of several generals. Ultimately, it was Heinz Guderian’s support for a continued thrust that led Hitler to allow for the resumption of the attack and this ultimately led to the debacle that was the Battle of Moscow. So Let’s presume Hitler’s nerves are less hardened in this ATL, and he orders the cancellation of continued attacks in the direction of Moscow in favor of digging in plus some minor attacks to partially make up for the cancellation. While AGC for the most part begins digging in for the winter, 3rd and 2nd Panzer are detached for duty with AGN and AGS respectively.
With the addition of 3rd Panzer swinging North, AGN is able to cut off Soviet forces west of the Chudovo-Tver line and bring about a more effective encirclement of Leningrad. The encircled Soviet forces will likely be rapidly destroyed, while the aforementioned city likely starved into submission come spring. This will greatly ease German logistics in this area, while also freeing up large numbers of Finnish and Wehrmacht duties elsewhere. Given that in this ATL, the Finns will be more inclined to view a German victory as inevitable without the Moscow debacle, they may take the risk of the United States declaring war on them by launch a joint attack with the Heer against the Murmansk railroad. This will cut the Soviets off completely from Lend-Lease along the Northern route, due to the fact Arkhangelsk’s expansion will not be complete until 1943 (As per OTL).
To the South, 2nd Panzer means AGS will likely secure Rostov and possibly Crimea/Sevastopol by December. Like with Leningrad, this will greatly assist German logistics as well as throw Soviet forces into greater disarray with more heavy losses. Throw in boom at Feodosia being closed due to butterflies plus a reserve to be used thanks to the presence of 2nd Panzer, and the Kerch landings will also be a disaster for the USSR. Presuming something like Operation Blue still occurs in the following campaign season (most likely option), it will find Soviet forces even weaker than in OTL in its path and will have a strong logistical tail as well as manpower base to start from.
As for AGC during the winter of 41/42, they will absorb and shatter the Soviet counter offensive when it comes. Even in OTL, when caught out in the open elements without defensive positions, lacking in winter gear, overstretched supply lines and almost cut off even after abandoning massive amounts of gear, the Wehrmacht at absolute worse inflicted almost 2.5:1 losses on the Red Army. Now imagine them fighting on the defense in prepared positions, with their supply lines having been given a month to sort themselves out. Can you say bloodbath for the Russians? Say let's say they suffer around 200-250 thousand losses in this ATL, but inflict 1,500,000 on the Reds. OTL the Soviets lost at the minimum just under a million, with the upper estimate being 1,200,000. Given the inherent advantage of defensive warfare, an extra 300,000 is certainly not ASB.
With that sorted out, let’s look at the North African front. In November of 1941, during the Allied attack codenamed Operation Crusader, the Desert Fox barely missed a prime opportunity in late November while his forces counterattacked. On November 24th, his forces almost succeeded in cutting off the British XIII Corps and nearly smashed XXX Corps (Which had gotten roughly handled the day prior). Let’s presume that butterflies allow for this to happen, with XXX Corps forced to retreat in disarray and the pocket formed around XIII Corps is gradually annihilated over the course of several days.
With this accomplished, Rommel can overrun further British rear area forces and supply caches (Greatly aiding his logistics) as well as relieve the siege of Bardia. The 8th Army will be forced into a route, allowing Rommel to reclaim and repair any salvageable vehicles left on the field of battle, along with any supplies. With improved logistics and his foe shattered, Rommel could probably start a devastating advance towards the Canal. Without relief, Tobruk will likely fall very quickly, and Rommel’s advance may make it far enough to cut off Alexandria and force the Brits to blow the canal (Crossing it into the Middle East is pretty much a pipe-dream for the Germans at this point, even in our ATL).
Finally, without the disaster around Moscow, it’s extremely unlikely Hitler will declare war on the US. That folly came about as a result of very bizarre circumstances. Apparently the Bohemian Corporal was in a state of shock and constantly being briefed up on the developing situation, and offhandedly signed off on the war proposal which was brought forth by the Kriegsmarine. With no Moscow woes, Hitler will continue to seek to avoid war, as he had done for the entirety of the year despite increasing provocations by Roosevelt on things like Iceland, and extending the Neutrality Patrol zones. Assuming the Japanese still launch Pearl Harbor, even Roosevelt will lack the political capital to bring about a war against Germany that includes a German first policy.
).Historically, during the operational pause of Typhoon, Hitler nearly ordered the cancellation of continued operations at the behest of several generals. Ultimately, it was Heinz Guderian’s support for a continued thrust that led Hitler to allow for the resumption of the attack and this ultimately led to the debacle that was the Battle of Moscow. So Let’s presume Hitler’s nerves are less hardened in this ATL, and he orders the cancellation of continued attacks in the direction of Moscow in favor of digging in plus some minor attacks to partially make up for the cancellation. While AGC for the most part begins digging in for the winter, 3rd and 2nd Panzer are detached for duty with AGN and AGS respectively.
With the addition of 3rd Panzer swinging North, AGN is able to cut off Soviet forces west of the Chudovo-Tver line and bring about a more effective encirclement of Leningrad. The encircled Soviet forces will likely be rapidly destroyed, while the aforementioned city likely starved into submission come spring. This will greatly ease German logistics in this area, while also freeing up large numbers of Finnish and Wehrmacht duties elsewhere. Given that in this ATL, the Finns will be more inclined to view a German victory as inevitable without the Moscow debacle, they may take the risk of the United States declaring war on them by launch a joint attack with the Heer against the Murmansk railroad. This will cut the Soviets off completely from Lend-Lease along the Northern route, due to the fact Arkhangelsk’s expansion will not be complete until 1943 (As per OTL).
To the South, 2nd Panzer means AGS will likely secure Rostov and possibly Crimea/Sevastopol by December. Like with Leningrad, this will greatly assist German logistics as well as throw Soviet forces into greater disarray with more heavy losses. Throw in boom at Feodosia being closed due to butterflies plus a reserve to be used thanks to the presence of 2nd Panzer, and the Kerch landings will also be a disaster for the USSR. Presuming something like Operation Blue still occurs in the following campaign season (most likely option), it will find Soviet forces even weaker than in OTL in its path and will have a strong logistical tail as well as manpower base to start from.
As for AGC during the winter of 41/42, they will absorb and shatter the Soviet counter offensive when it comes. Even in OTL, when caught out in the open elements without defensive positions, lacking in winter gear, overstretched supply lines and almost cut off even after abandoning massive amounts of gear, the Wehrmacht at absolute worse inflicted almost 2.5:1 losses on the Red Army. Now imagine them fighting on the defense in prepared positions, with their supply lines having been given a month to sort themselves out. Can you say bloodbath for the Russians? Say let's say they suffer around 200-250 thousand losses in this ATL, but inflict 1,500,000 on the Reds. OTL the Soviets lost at the minimum just under a million, with the upper estimate being 1,200,000. Given the inherent advantage of defensive warfare, an extra 300,000 is certainly not ASB.
With that sorted out, let’s look at the North African front. In November of 1941, during the Allied attack codenamed Operation Crusader, the Desert Fox barely missed a prime opportunity in late November while his forces counterattacked. On November 24th, his forces almost succeeded in cutting off the British XIII Corps and nearly smashed XXX Corps (Which had gotten roughly handled the day prior). Let’s presume that butterflies allow for this to happen, with XXX Corps forced to retreat in disarray and the pocket formed around XIII Corps is gradually annihilated over the course of several days.
With this accomplished, Rommel can overrun further British rear area forces and supply caches (Greatly aiding his logistics) as well as relieve the siege of Bardia. The 8th Army will be forced into a route, allowing Rommel to reclaim and repair any salvageable vehicles left on the field of battle, along with any supplies. With improved logistics and his foe shattered, Rommel could probably start a devastating advance towards the Canal. Without relief, Tobruk will likely fall very quickly, and Rommel’s advance may make it far enough to cut off Alexandria and force the Brits to blow the canal (Crossing it into the Middle East is pretty much a pipe-dream for the Germans at this point, even in our ATL).
Finally, without the disaster around Moscow, it’s extremely unlikely Hitler will declare war on the US. That folly came about as a result of very bizarre circumstances. Apparently the Bohemian Corporal was in a state of shock and constantly being briefed up on the developing situation, and offhandedly signed off on the war proposal which was brought forth by the Kriegsmarine. With no Moscow woes, Hitler will continue to seek to avoid war, as he had done for the entirety of the year despite increasing provocations by Roosevelt on things like Iceland, and extending the Neutrality Patrol zones. Assuming the Japanese still launch Pearl Harbor, even Roosevelt will lack the political capital to bring about a war against Germany that includes a German first policy.
