Congress Poland and the uprising of 1830

[bytor]

This entry in the Wikipedia article caught my eye:


"Militarily, Poland might have succeeded if the line of battle had been established in Lithuania (wrote Lewinski-Corwin) and if the Russian forces arriving in Poland progressively, had been dealt with separately and decisively, one-unit-after-another." (see also The Political history of Poland)


This seems to refer to Maurycy Mochnacki who advocated a military campaign in Lithuania and Józef Chłopicki who was was proclaimed 'Dictator of the Uprising'. Chłopicki considered the uprising an act of madness, but bowed to pressure though he refused to initiate armed hostilities by expelling Russian forces from Lithuania.

What if Chłopicki had been steadfast and had not accepted the dictatorship and somebody else was appointed who would follow Mochnacki's recommendations? Perhaps even Mochnacki himself?

Apparently Chłopicki overestimated Russian forces and underestimated Polish capabilities, leading him to delay armed conflict which led to a loss of enthusiasm and perhaps moral of the troops as well as tactical advantage for the Russians. Since the Polish Army appeared to have the needed manpower, would Prussia or Austria, as part of the Holy Alliance, have intervened on the part of Russia?

[spengler]

Any good books on Polish resistance to Russia in the 19th century?

[Krall]

From what the Wikipedia article on the November Uprising says it looks like Austria and Prussia were not inclined to directly intervene in the war, instead merely closing the border into Congress Poland, and indeed many people in Germany - including sovereigns and high-ranking nobles like the King of Saxony - were sympathetic to the Polish forces. Britain seems to have been quite alarmed at the war, as similar revolutions were taking place in France and Belgium, and they feared that Russia's forces might be needed to restore order.

I don't have any detailed knowledge on this period of history but generally if a rebellion manages to win an early battle, even if the battle is not decisive or particularly significant, this will embolden people sympathetic to the rebellion and allow it to "snowball" to become larger and more powerful. It sounds like there was sympathy for the Polish cause amongst neighbouring populations in the territory of the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, but that any uprisings attempted there were not significant enough to turn the tide of the war. If the Polish had taken a more pro-active and aggressive stance, immediately taking the fight to Russia and expelling Russian forces from Lithuania, it seems likely the Lithuanians and other peoples in the area would join the uprising, greatly strengthening it and making its ultimate victory more likely.

If Poland could achieve its independence from Russia (possibly along with parts of the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth) then I think Chłopicki might make a better leader post-war than he did during the war, as he was a moderate who could put neighbouring countries - who may be worried about similar uprisings in their own land, or that the Polish revolution would turn into a secular, republican movement - at ease and help secure the international recognition of this newly independent Poland.

I'm kinda speculating wildly though - is there anyone here who could comment on the plausibility of a successful Polish uprising? The international reaction to Poland's independence would be key, I think, so does anyone know how countries like Britain, France, Prussia, and Austria might react?