Post by mcnutt on Jan 31, 2017 2:40:19 GMT
The POD is moving back the Shah's cancer. He dies in Egypt his first stop after he went into exile. He does not come to the United States, so the embassy is not taken over. This means that Jimmy Carter does not have this burden when he runs for reelection in 1980. With the recession, he still loses but it is closer. The popular vote is Reagan 47% to Carter's 44%. Carter not only carries not only the OTL Rhode Island, Maryland, District of Columbia, West Virginia, Georgia, Minnesota and Hawaii, but the close states of Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Delaware, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Wisconsin. The Electoral College results are Reagan 341 and Carter 197. Reagan has less of a mandate. Reagan is a minority President. Carter's domination of the South and strength in the Northeast gives Reagan less of a national sweep. Reagan does not have the psychological effect of being declared the winner at 8 pm Eastern Time. Because Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois with their 75 electoral votes were close, Reagan is not declared the winner until around midnight, The election is remembered as a nail biter rather than a landslide.
Reagan also had a less friendly Congress. Democrats win the Senate contests in New York, Pennslyvania, North Carolina, Georgiam Floridam Alabama, Wisconsin, Idaho and Arizonia, The Senate was 56 to 44 Democratic rather than the OTL 53 to 47 Republican. 17 more Democrats win Hosue races than OTL. The House was 259 to 179 Democratic rather than OTL's 242 to 196. I think there would have been enough bipartisan support for Reagan's tax and budget cuts to pass, but he would have had to do more compromising than OTL.
Reagan still gets reelected in prosperous 1984 and still tries to ransom hostages by selling arms to Iran in 1986. While Iran did not hold American hostages, it is still a nation that supported terrorism. That and the attemot to ransom hostages makes Reagan look bad. Because the American Embassey is not invaded, the US and Iran do not break thier diplomatic relations. That means that US Embassey is involved in the arms sales. More people know about the arms sales and there is more of chance of a leak. If the news is public before the 1986 election, than the Democrats could do better. There is one 1986 election that is particularly interesting ITTL. If Barry Goldwater's replacement is popular and wins reelection than he denies John McCain a seat in the Senate
