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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Mar 18, 2017 22:48:04 GMT
What would it take for the Margraviate of Brandenburg to unite with the Electorate of Saxony instead of the Duchy of Prussia? Personally I believe that Saxony and Hanover are often underrated in their potential value as contributors to the unification of the German states. One of the possible ideas would have been for the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth to completely crush and dismantle the Teutonic Knights in the 1519-21 Polish-Teutonic war. IOTL that conflict only ended with the Treaty of Krakow which allowed Albert of Prussia to convert to Lutheranism and secularize his holdings, transforming Prussia into a Duchy.
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Post by steve59 on Mar 19, 2017 11:12:45 GMT
Don't really know enough of the dynastical politics of the region in that period. Most of my knowledge, apart from being a bit dated is from the 17th and 18thC. However should be possible for some sort of combination of the two although such an increase in the power of Saxony - as its likely to be the dominant member of the union at that time, is likely to prompt opposition from the Hapsburg's as their a prominent potential rival. Especially if Saxony/Brandenburg is still Luthor's primary supporter. I would expect the Wettins would have to fight to maintain the union at some stage. If this triggered a somewhat earlier version of the Winter War and possibly with Saxony absorbing/liberating Bohemia that could be a massive game changer. [Although think this would have to happen in the late 16thC after Charles V had split his empire as before then its likely to be too powerful. Initial thoughts anyway. Possibly Saxony [call it that for simplicity sake] emerges as the defender of Protestantism in the HRE, absorbing Bohemia or at least having it split off from the Hapsburg's with a friendly Lutheran dynasty and also other Protestant areas allied with in it some sort of North German Confederation or alliance.
This might mean, with the influence of Calvinism reduced in Germany, that Lutheranism is overwhelmingly the dominant Protestant sect in Germany. Also not sure what impact such a powerful Protestant state in NE Germany would have on relations with Poland and the Baltic powers. Does it get drawn into a clash with either Denmark or Sweden or ally with one against the other. If it allied with Sweden say and that proved fairly long lasting then you could seriously impact the rise of Russia as a Peter the Great drive for the Baltic is facing a much more difficult problem, even if Sweden still gets an impulsive idiot like Charles XII as king at some point.
It could also mean a tricky balancing of the Hapsburg's, French and Saxons as well as other powers with alliances shifting and changing.
Steve
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Mar 20, 2017 5:12:41 GMT
Saxony liberating (or rather, conquering) both Bohemia and Silesia would have been a huge game changer, especially if the Czechs in this case would suffer a similar fate to the Sorbs in the rest of the German state. In this case its territory would resemble a fusion of OTL Czech Republic and an East German state that retains Pomerania and Silesia. Would the Saxon kings have the same militaristic attitude as their Prussian rivals?
How would German culture be like if Lutheranism became the dominant Protestant sect in Germany? I'd also think that if given the right conditions, I'd say that Saxony could have a hostile relationship with Poland-Lithuania (unless a Saxon prince ends up on the Polish throne). However, with the control of the Baltic coastline, would the Saxons also compete with both Denmark-Norway and Sweden for economic advantage? I would also believe that Hannover might become a hostile rival to Saxony as well and I wouldn't be surprised if Saxony would conquer Hannover the same way Prussia conquered Saxony during one of the German unification campaigns.
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Post by MinnesotaNationalist on Mar 20, 2017 7:17:38 GMT
I personally think that Saxony taking over Bohemia and Silesia might be a small leap in logic. But, I can say anything outside of the HRE (eg Prussia) would certainly not be considered be part of "Germany," and would probably be of lesser concern to any future German Nationalists.
Because there would be no Great Power that was disjointed because of Poland, the Partitions of Poland might never happen, rather remaining as a giant buffer between the German States and Russia. Saxons probably wouldn't come to the Polish throne, possibly being replaces by the Leszczynski's who historically opposed Augustus the Strong's reign.
In replacement of the Partitions of Poland, Saxony would probably be looking to expand west (perhaps to historic Saxony). I think the Saxons having competition with Hanover is pretty much guaranteed, and assuming Britain still gets Hanover in a Personal Union, that means Saxony is competing with Britain. Saxony allying to France is pretty much certain.
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Mar 20, 2017 16:39:37 GMT
I personally think that Saxony taking over Bohemia and Silesia might be a small leap in logic. But, I can say anything outside of the HRE (eg Prussia) would certainly not be considered be part of "Germany," and would probably be of lesser concern to any future German Nationalists. Because there would be no Great Power that was disjointed because of Poland, the Partitions of Poland might never happen, rather remaining as a giant buffer between the German States and Russia. Saxons probably wouldn't come to the Polish throne, possibly being replaces by the Leszczynski's who historically opposed Augustus the Strong's reign. In replacement of the Partitions of Poland, Saxony would probably be looking to expand west (perhaps to historic Saxony). I think the Saxons having competition with Hanover is pretty much guaranteed, and assuming Britain still gets Hanover in a Personal Union, that means Saxony is competing with Britain. Saxony allying to France is pretty much certain. I'm not sure what would the PoD be, but if it was between the 16th century and the 17th century, then there might be enough butterflies to kill off the Britain-Hannover union. Perhaps the Dutch Republic or a Dutch Kingdom would acquire Hannover instead. Yet given the strong Lutheran nature of uber-Saxony, it might focus more on internal development instead of acquiring colonies. At least, if Saxony doesn't have access to Hamburg. On the other hand, Hannover would likely become contested between the Dutch and Saxony in this case. Perhaps in lieu of Hamburg, possibly one or two ports in Holstein would be sufficient enough. If one of the PoDs that I've proposed is that the Poles completely demolish the Teutonic Knights, then the Ostsiedlung might be reversed or slowed down. |
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Post by steve59 on Mar 20, 2017 16:47:20 GMT
Saxony liberating (or rather, conquering) both Bohemia and Silesia would have been a huge game changer, especially if the Czechs in this case would suffer a similar fate to the Sorbs in the rest of the German state. In this case its territory would resemble a fusion of OTL Czech Republic and an East German state that retains Pomerania and Silesia. Would the Saxon kings have the same militaristic attitude as their Prussian rivals? How would German culture be like if Lutheranism became the dominant Protestant sect in Germany? I'd also think that if given the right conditions, I'd say that Saxony could have a hostile relationship with Poland-Lithuania (unless a Saxon prince ends up on the Polish throne). However, with the control of the Baltic coastline, would the Saxons also compete with both Denmark-Norway and Sweden for economic advantage? I would also believe that Hannover might become a hostile rival to Saxony as well and I wouldn't be surprised if Saxony would conquer Hannover the same way Prussia conquered Saxony during one of the German unification campaigns. MB A hell of a game changer but thinking that a more powerful Saxony, because it includes Brandenburg, is likely to clash with the Hapsburg's and if you get something like the OTL Bohemian revolt than the Saxon king would be a markedly better fit for a new monarch for Bohemia that the OTL Elector of Palentine was. Because the Saxon heir would be Lutheran rather than Calvinist and because Saxony would provide a larger and nearer 'protector' against the Hapsburg's. Not sure whether the Wettins would be as militant as the OTL Prussians. They wouldn't have the highly militarised Prussian provinces, which is supposed to be the heartland of the junker culture. On the other hand it would be clashing even more with the HRE and probably drawn into other conflicts by their wider possessions and political powers. Not sure how a more clearly Lutherian domination of Protestantism in Germany would affect matters. You might see some attempt to link the sect with the Saxon state/wider alliance. Would definitely expect some clashes with Denmark and or Sweden. Possibly the most stable result and profitable for them might be a Saxon-Swedish alliance. The Swedes get a free hand in the Baltic and could well end up with Denmark, or at least Zealand and most of Jutland, which would greatly help them in defending their eastern territories against Russia. Saxony get domination of say the southern coastline and the Schleswig-Holstein region, which would also give it a lot of influence over the Elbe and its trade. Not sure what relations with Poland might be like as it could depend on a lot of variables, but likely to be some clashes at least. Poland, being predominantly Catholic [although not excessively so in the early Reformation period] could ally with the Hapsburg's especially if also allied against the Ottomans but in turn Saxony might be allied with Sweden and/or Russia at different times. Hanover was a fair bit smaller originally I think so, presuming it still goes Protestant could well be an ally to Saxony in the early days but if both survived and prospered somewhat they could well be rivals later on. Especially perhaps if Hanover becomes dynastically linked with Britain, which would greatly increase its power and influence. The big issue here might be Saxony's relationship with France. If it has long standing conflicts with the Hapsburg's, which it might have, it could well become a if not the major France ally in Germany. Alternatively, or at a later time, it might become allied with Austria and other German states against a too powerful France, especially under someone like Louis XIV. Suspect most likely alliances will vary over time and along with events. Steve |
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Post by steve59 on Mar 20, 2017 17:01:19 GMT
I personally think that Saxony taking over Bohemia and Silesia might be a small leap in logic. But, I can say anything outside of the HRE (eg Prussia) would certainly not be considered be part of "Germany," and would probably be of lesser concern to any future German Nationalists. I was thinking that if you get something like the OTL reformation in Bohemia and revolt against Austrian/Catholic rule then this more powerful Saxony would seem to be a more natural link than the OTL Palatine and might well hold the kingdom, which would as said be a big butterfly in European history. You might have a much shorter 30 Years War or one which sees Austria largely eclipsed as a great power without their most prosperous element. Especially if they were attacked by the Turks during this period. However relations with the Baltic powers might be less friendly if Saxony is looking too powerful or possibly its ruler gets too arrogant. Possibly, although I think the key factors were the relative decline in Polish power and rise of Russia. If those still occur then there might still be a partition, simply because powers to the west, Saxony and possibly Austria, don't want Russia to get all the Polish kingdom. Also while a Prussia that sees the Teutonic Knights defeated might well end up being directly ruled by Poland this could be a source of conflict with Saxony and other German states because I think it had already been Germanised. As such, especially if Saxony is seeking to become a unifier of Germany, or at least the northern lands this could become an issue. Although if, as I said to MB, a successful alliance with Sweden developed then you might never see Russia get that far west, so even a Poland that sees internal decay could avoid partition. That could well be the case, although I suspect they would be allies in earlier years, while the survival/security of Protestantism in Germany is seen as under threat. Later however they could well be rivals and Saxony could become a key, if not the main ally to France in Germany, especially if the Hapsburg's still dominate most of south/central Germany and are the chief buffers against French expansion. |
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Mar 21, 2017 1:47:08 GMT
Austria could be eclipsed as a Great Power in an uber-Saxony scenario, but let us not forget that Bavaria might also be in a position to inherit Austria`s spot as the dominant Catholic German power that holds on to southern and central Germany. When industrialization frenzy begins later down the road, Saxony will definitely come into blows with Austria and France over the Rhineland region, in addition to the possession of the mineral rich Silesian province that Saxony might end up conquering. In this case Hannover might become eclipsed in terms of industrial power by Saxony if the Saxons began their industrialization project, leading to Hannover being forced to form an alliance with England or Britain, or even the Netherlands. In the event that Hannover does end up being absorbed into Saxony, it might face encirclement attempts by France, Austria, the Netherlands and even Denmark and Sweden in the mix plus a surviving Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
How would a powerful uber-Saxony affect European politics and colonial ambitions overall will depend on whether or not the German populations outside the HRE would be enticed to come and settle in Saxony or be used as surplus labor to be used by other nations in their colonization campaigns. I could imagine Saxony setting up colonies on the basis of what the Wilhelmine Empire did with their colonies: industrialization, commercialization and plantation based, with Togoland and Kamerun as potential models for a Saxon colony. It will not be like the Dutch colonies, but more like the OTL Wilhelmine colonies (German Empire and its colonies).
I`m not exactly sure if Sweden and Saxony would agree to partition Denmark entirely since having control of the straits that lead to the Baltic Sea would be a huge game changer. I suspect that Denmark would be reduced to a rump state, with Schleswig and Holstein coming under Saxon rule while Sweden would be content with taking Norway, Iceland and Greenland. The Ostsiedlung like I said earlier could be re-directed towards the Saxon colonization of certain parts of the Americas, Africa or Asia.
I would think that overall that Saxony as a potential leader in the German unification campaigns would not have the same hunger for marching into Eastern European lands the same way the Nazis have, although German settlement of Central and Eastern Europe beyond the borders of the old HRE have already occurred. In this case the German population in those areas would be utilized for commercial purposes. Germans in Livonia might be useful to either Sweden or Poland-Lithuania or even Russia, while Germans in Hungary and Transylvania might occupy a unique position there.
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Post by steve59 on Mar 21, 2017 12:25:14 GMT
Austria could be eclipsed as a Great Power in an uber-Saxony scenario, but let us not forget that Bavaria might also be in a position to inherit Austria`s spot as the dominant Catholic German power that holds on to southern and central Germany. When industrialization frenzy begins later down the road, Saxony will definitely come into blows with Austria and France over the Rhineland region, in addition to the possession of the mineral rich Silesian province that Saxony might end up conquering. In this case Hannover might become eclipsed in terms of industrial power by Saxony if the Saxons began their industrialization project, leading to Hannover being forced to form an alliance with England or Britain, or even the Netherlands. In the event that Hannover does end up being absorbed into Saxony, it might face encirclement attempts by France, Austria, the Netherlands and even Denmark and Sweden in the mix plus a surviving Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. How would a powerful uber-Saxony affect European politics and colonial ambitions overall will depend on whether or not the German populations outside the HRE would be enticed to come and settle in Saxony or be used as surplus labor to be used by other nations in their colonization campaigns. I could imagine Saxony setting up colonies on the basis of what the Wilhelmine Empire did with their colonies: industrialization, commercialization and plantation based, with Togoland and Kamerun as potential models for a Saxon colony. It will not be like the Dutch colonies, but more like the OTL Wilhelmine colonies (German Empire and its colonies). I`m not exactly sure if Sweden and Saxony would agree to partition Denmark entirely since having control of the straits that lead to the Baltic Sea would be a huge game changer. I suspect that Denmark would be reduced to a rump state, with Schleswig and Holstein coming under Saxon rule while Sweden would be content with taking Norway, Iceland and Greenland. The Ostsiedlung like I said earlier could be re-directed towards the Saxon colonization of certain parts of the Americas, Africa or Asia. I would think that overall that Saxony as a potential leader in the German unification campaigns would not have the same hunger for marching into Eastern European lands the same way the Nazis have, although German settlement of Central and Eastern Europe beyond the borders of the old HRE have already occurred. In this case the German population in those areas would be utilized for commercial purposes. Germans in Livonia might be useful to either Sweden or Poland-Lithuania or even Russia, while Germans in Hungary and Transylvania might occupy a unique position there. MB If Saxony were to take Bohemia from Austria then it would also gain Silesia. Both because Austria would have no access to it and because Silesia was part of the kingdom of Bohemia. In terms of Saxony expanding too quickly that would be a danger if they were seen as a threat to too many other powers. Just as Austria was OTL under Charles V and then during the 30 Years War and Spain, France and Germany at different times in European history. However I'm assuming things aren't too drastic with say Brandenburg being absorbed early in the reformation, which heightens tension between Saxon, clearly the 2nd most powerful German state and leading Protestant one. Then say a Lutheran revolt in Bohemia as OTL in the winter war but with the Czechs turning towards the Wettins rather than the Palentine for a new ruler and protector. This could mean a markedly shorter and less costly TYW or possibly a different one but with Saxony keeping Bohemia. In terms of south Germany you might see Bavaria dominating Austria or, with the latter's links with Spain and Italian lands the latter might end up dominating Bavaria and forming a more coherent S German Catholic bloc. Ideally you still need a powerful state, probably Hapsburg lead, to keep the Turks at bay and play a part in keeping the French out of western Germany. I mentioned a proposed prolonged Saxon-Swedish alliance as possibly the best for Saxony. If it led to Sweden controlling the Baltic entrance that would a serious problem for the naval powers of western Europe, especially if they came to rule Norway as well. However for Saxony it might not be too bad and seems the simplest way for securing Saxony from threats from the north. Especially if as part of the deal Saxony gets exemption from any Sound Dues. Otherwise their likely to have continued clashes with either or both of Sweden/Denmark. It could however have problems with Poland under those circumstances. A lot of potential butterflies here depending on how the world develops. Steve |
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Mar 21, 2017 18:28:53 GMT
At this point I wouldn't be surprised if Saxony and Sweden had decided to have its princes and princesses marry each other just to boost ties. Poland-Lithuania would no doubt become the common enemy of Saxony and Sweden, so if they played their cards right, they can rope Russia into the anti-Polish alliance. However, it might also be possible that a strong Saxony and an ambitious Sweden that seeks to turn the PLC into their punching bag may lead the Poles to seek an alliance with Russia.
I don't know if there are tensions between Calvinists and Lutherans despite being Protestant sects. In this case, Germany as we know it would be split three way with a Lutheran Saxony, a Catholic Austria-Bavaria and a Calvinist Hannover. That might have some interesting consequences on their relationships with the rest of Europe. Hannover would no doubt look more towards the Netherlands and Britain while Austria-Bavaria would be allied to France, Spain and the Italian states and Saxony would look towards Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. Or German unification would play out differently in this case.
Saxony might have a bigger interest in developing their navy and maritime merchant fleet due to their control of their Baltic coastline and the cities on the Schleswig-Holstein area. Sweden can benefit from having a strong Saxon naval fleet helping the Swedish Navy patrol the Baltic for pirates that might rob merchant ships.
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Post by steve59 on Mar 21, 2017 20:19:26 GMT
At this point I wouldn't be surprised if Saxony and Sweden had decided to have its princes and princesses marry each other just to boost ties. Poland-Lithuania would no doubt become the common enemy of Saxony and Sweden, so if they played their cards right, they can rope Russia into the anti-Polish alliance. However, it might also be possible that a strong Saxony and an ambitious Sweden that seeks to turn the PLC into their punching bag may lead the Poles to seek an alliance with Russia. I don't know if there are tensions between Calvinists and Lutherans despite being Protestant sects. In this case, Germany as we know it would be split three way with a Lutheran Saxony, a Catholic Austria-Bavaria and a Calvinist Hannover. That might have some interesting consequences on their relationships with the rest of Europe. Hannover would no doubt look more towards the Netherlands and Britain while Austria-Bavaria would be allied to France, Spain and the Italian states and Saxony would look towards Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. Or German unification would play out differently in this case. Saxony might have a bigger interest in developing their navy and maritime merchant fleet due to their control of their Baltic coastline and the cities on the Schleswig-Holstein area. Sweden can benefit from having a strong Saxon naval fleet helping the Swedish Navy patrol the Baltic for pirates that might rob merchant ships. Interesting ideas. Not sure if Austria [or whoever is the dominant Catholic power in a S German bloc] would necessarily be allied to France. It would depend on the relative strength of Saxony and Austria but if reasonably equal I could see Austria accepting the loss of Bohemia eventually and looking to end tension to enable it to concentrate on more dangerous threats, in terms of the Turks and the French encroachments in the west. Especially if Austria still dominates N Italy and hence clashes with the French there. A lot would depend on the exact relationship between the two powers which would be impossible to predict without basically drawing up a fairly detailed TL. OTL Austria and Prussia were rivals once Prussia became the clear 2nd power in Germany on taking over Silesia. TTL the shift occurs earlier and to a much greater extent, if as I suggested, Saxony gains the throne and lands of Bohemia. [This need not happen. You could see the Protestants in Bohemia defeated as OTL or never rising or even possibly Saxony keeps Silesia and secures control over Lusatia to gain a common link with the province, which would give a closer parallel to OTL. Or some different developments]. However if we assume a Saxon domination of Bohemia occurs then depending on events elsewhere and coupled with it controlling Brandenburg its going to be approaching if not exceeding the Hapsburg realm in terms of power so there will be a lot of tension. Especially if Saxony secures its northern border. However will the relationship be of continued conflict or would they find common cause against some greater enemies? |
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Mar 21, 2017 20:57:55 GMT
Saxony is far from the Austro-Turkish border but may provide enough support. However, there is always Poland-Lithuania to consider as potential enemies of both Saxony and Austria, although Hapsburg-Jagiellon dynastic marriages would nullify the encirclement. In any case, Saxony would be encircled by Austria, France, Hannover and Poland-Lithuania. At the same time, the Turks wouldn't have a chance of fighting the Saxons due to logistical issues.
Sooner or later Saxony and Austria will come to blows over who gets to unify Germany, or if there would be a North German and South German state respectively. The only difference between TTL's “Germany” and the OTL Wilhelmine Empire would be less racial tensions between German speakers and minorities. For one thing, there would be far less Poles under Saxon rule than OTL Prussia. However, Poland-Lithuania will inherit the OTL German-Polish animosity, just with the roles reversed (Germans in the PLC might be subjected to heavy handed Polonization policies)
The Rhineland and the Ruhr region would be heavily contested for sure since they contain a crapton of resources and that is where the bulk of German industry is located. It will definitely be a huge bloodbath for whoever is fighting for that valuable region. At worst, Austria might opt to form a union with Hungary or the Italian states to compensate for their loss of Silesia and Bohemia.
Linguistically speaking, would it be possible for a separate Austrian language to emerge to connect it with the Austrian national identity in this case? OTL Yiddish is basically German with Hebrew loan words, so maybe the separate Austrian language would develop along the lines of Yiddish, but with Italian and French substituting for Hebrew. Realistically a united Germany might not even exist here.
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Post by steve59 on Mar 22, 2017 0:13:14 GMT
Saxony is far from the Austro-Turkish border but may provide enough support. However, there is always Poland-Lithuania to consider as potential enemies of both Saxony and Austria, although Hapsburg-Jagiellon dynastic marriages would nullify the encirclement. In any case, Saxony would be encircled by Austria, France, Hannover and Poland-Lithuania. At the same time, the Turks wouldn't have a chance of fighting the Saxons due to logistical issues. Sooner or later Saxony and Austria will come to blows over who gets to unify Germany, or if there would be a North German and South German state respectively. The only difference between TTL's “Germany” and the OTL Wilhelmine Empire would be less racial tensions between German speakers and minorities. For one thing, there would be far less Poles under Saxon rule than OTL Prussia. However, Poland-Lithuania will inherit the OTL German-Polish animosity, just with the roles reversed (Germans in the PLC might be subjected to heavy handed Polonization policies) The Rhineland and the Ruhr region would be heavily contested for sure since they contain a crapton of resources and that is where the bulk of German industry is located. It will definitely be a huge bloodbath for whoever is fighting for that valuable region. At worst, Austria might opt to form a union with Hungary or the Italian states to compensate for their loss of Silesia and Bohemia. Linguistically speaking, would it be possible for a separate Austrian language to emerge to connect it with the Austrian national identity in this case? OTL Yiddish is basically German with Hebrew loan words, so maybe the separate Austrian language would develop along the lines of Yiddish, but with Italian and French substituting for Hebrew. Realistically a united Germany might not even exist here. On this last point I don't know but the Netherlands was long thought as part of not only the HRE but also basically of Germany I think. At least what we call the Netherlands nowadays. So the two cultures could diverse enough in langauage. This might even be compounded if there was rivalry between the two states when modern mass education starts to appear as each might seek to support its own version of the German language and hence highlight differences. Plus just because a common language exists it doesn't mean that all speaker in a similar region will inevitably be united. Not to mention there are other reasons for people to stay divided, in terms of religion, culture, a prolonged separate identity, especially if compounded by a long history of disputes between the two. One other factor here might be that if you get a surviving Austria [or someone else] unifying southern Catholic Germany and a greatly enlarged Saxony unifying the NE and neighbouring areas, with smaller German states associating with one or the other, is you might not see a German vacuum that needs to be resolved by forming a national state. I.e. if both are strong enough to stand on their own feet and steadily absorb other German speakers then you may not see a distinct German nationalism appearing to resolve the question of the vulnerability of German states and peoples. [Hope I'm explaining that OK?] One other issue with this is that a surviving Austria, even if it absorbed Bavaria and possibly other areas in southern Germany, is likely to have extensive non-German lands. If it keeps large territories in Italy and/or regains all of the kingdom of Hungary as the Ottomans are pushed back at some point, then Germans are likely to be a minority, albeit probably a politically/economically dominate one. As such that could mean a serious identity crisis for the Austria state similar to OTL. However even if the empire collapses that doesn't mean what could be a still fairly substantial S German state would be absorbed by its northern rival. |
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Mar 22, 2017 1:14:02 GMT
Saxony is far from the Austro-Turkish border but may provide enough support. However, there is always Poland-Lithuania to consider as potential enemies of both Saxony and Austria, although Hapsburg-Jagiellon dynastic marriages would nullify the encirclement. In any case, Saxony would be encircled by Austria, France, Hannover and Poland-Lithuania. At the same time, the Turks wouldn't have a chance of fighting the Saxons due to logistical issues. Sooner or later Saxony and Austria will come to blows over who gets to unify Germany, or if there would be a North German and South German state respectively. The only difference between TTL's “Germany” and the OTL Wilhelmine Empire would be less racial tensions between German speakers and minorities. For one thing, there would be far less Poles under Saxon rule than OTL Prussia. However, Poland-Lithuania will inherit the OTL German-Polish animosity, just with the roles reversed (Germans in the PLC might be subjected to heavy handed Polonization policies) The Rhineland and the Ruhr region would be heavily contested for sure since they contain a crapton of resources and that is where the bulk of German industry is located. It will definitely be a huge bloodbath for whoever is fighting for that valuable region. At worst, Austria might opt to form a union with Hungary or the Italian states to compensate for their loss of Silesia and Bohemia. Linguistically speaking, would it be possible for a separate Austrian language to emerge to connect it with the Austrian national identity in this case? OTL Yiddish is basically German with Hebrew loan words, so maybe the separate Austrian language would develop along the lines of Yiddish, but with Italian and French substituting for Hebrew. Realistically a united Germany might not even exist here. On this last point I don't know but the Netherlands was long thought as part of not only the HRE but also basically of Germany I think. At least what we call the Netherlands nowadays. So the two cultures could diverse enough in langauage. This might even be compounded if there was rivalry between the two states when modern mass education starts to appear as each might seek to support its own version of the German language and hence highlight differences. Plus just because a common language exists it doesn't mean that all speaker in a similar region will inevitably be united. Not to mention there are other reasons for people to stay divided, in terms of religion, culture, a prolonged separate identity, especially if compounded by a long history of disputes between the two. One other factor here might be that if you get a surviving Austria [or someone else] unifying southern Catholic Germany and a greatly enlarged Saxony unifying the NE and neighbouring areas, with smaller German states associating with one or the other, is you might not see a German vacuum that needs to be resolved by forming a national state. I.e. if both are strong enough to stand on their own feet and steadily absorb other German speakers then you may not see a distinct German nationalism appearing to resolve the question of the vulnerability of German states and peoples. [Hope I'm explaining that OK?] One other issue with this is that a surviving Austria, even if it absorbed Bavaria and possibly other areas in southern Germany, is likely to have extensive non-German lands. If it keeps large territories in Italy and/or regains all of the kingdom of Hungary as the Ottomans are pushed back at some point, then Germans are likely to be a minority, albeit probably a politically/economically dominate one. As such that could mean a serious identity crisis for the Austria state similar to OTL. However even if the empire collapses that doesn't mean what could be a still fairly substantial S German state would be absorbed by its northern rival. True, and Dutch language is a variant of German. However, the Dutch had gained a separate and unique identity through their rebellion against Spain and the Holy Roman Empire and thus would not want to associate themselves with their German cousins. Basically Saxony, the Netherlands and Austria would become the Germanic equivalent of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, with the only difference is that the Germanic states are of course, Germanic. However, it would ultimately depend on which of the German states has more power and influence. Hannover would be a heavily prized state for either the Netherlands or Saxony. Saxon language in this case might also be influenced by the Scandinavian dialects if ties between Saxony and Sweden remain cordial and friendly, as would Saxony and Denmark. In fact, there is a slight chance that Saxon might also adopt some of the linguistic influences from Danish in order to make it distinct from the other German dialects. Letters too, could be influenced by the German states' relationship with its neighbors. In the end, Saxony could become as dangerous as its OTL Prussian rival. |
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Post by eurofed on Jun 30, 2017 20:08:54 GMT
Rather interesting PoD for anyone interested in alternative and likely earlier paths to German unification. For the sake of making it more appealing and geopolitically coherent, I'm going to take for granted in addition to Saxony and Brandenburg, ITTL the Wettin are also able to prevent or reverse the division of their original holdings between the Ernestine and Albertine lines (so they can own Thuringia) and seize Bohemia, Moravia, and Silesia from the Habsburg in a shorter, less destructive version of the TYW. Their acquisition of Pomerania seems more or less inevitable as well if they can defy or make a deal with Sweden. So the Wettin would forge a Northeastern German Lutheran state of Saxony, Brandenburg, Thuringia, Pomerania, Bohemia-Moravia, and Silesia. Such a German state (‘Saxony’ for short) would certainly fill OTL geopolitical niche of Prussia but have many more resources at its disposal. It seems exceedingly likely the Czechs shall get as Germanized as the Sorbs by getting assimilated in such a state.
It is questionable whether they shall become as militarist as the Hohenzollern. In the end it matters little since with the abundant resources available to them the Wettin shall only need moderately competent leaders and armies to be as successful as the Hohenzollern or even more so, even if they don't focus on the military so much. As a matter of fact, given the circumstances, my best guess is Saxony shall have a mixed national vocation roughly similar to the one of France, part focused on continental trade and industry, part dedicated to land military power, part on cultural soft power, with the possibility of some decent colonial expansion as well, esp. once they are done expanding across northern Germany.
Their natural expansion vector shall be hegemony of North Germany and short of exceeding bad luck they shall be even more successful at this than OTL Prussia. The personal union of Britain and Hanover was a dynastic accident of history that may be very easily prevented with a 16th century PoD, and the British elites showed zero interest in being bound to continental holdings after being defeated in the HYW. So we may assume the union never happens ITTL and Hanover gets absorbed by Saxony as well. The Dutch never showed much aptitude or interest for expansion in western Germany, so they won’t likely be a real obstacle to Saxony, if anything they may be interested in getting the Wettin as an ally to keep the Habsburg and later France at bay. More or less the same would apply to Britain as well. A Saxon hegemony in North Germany does not threaten British strategic interests and Britain can use Saxony as an ally to keep Spain and France at bay.
The Wettin shall of course have to fight France to own Rhineland-Westphalia but given their resources I expect they shall be as successful as OTL Prussia or more at this, and prevent the French from too much encroachment in western Germany in the end. Moreover, they may have a good chance of stopping Alsace and Lorraine from being absorbed by France. ITTL it is entirely possible and probably even likely the classical border between France and Germany stays the Meuse, not the Rhine. Although the fight between Saxony/Austria and France to keep the French out of German land shall be as epic as OTL. On the other hand, with Saxon power pushing Austria out of northern Germany sooner rather than later, France might get a pathway to absorbing the Southern Netherlands. The Dutch might go various ways, but for simplicity let’s assume they stay independent and ally with Britain and Saxony (barring a few colonial squabbles) to keep France at bay.
Ducal Prussia won’t be of any special interest for Saxony, and in all likelihood it shall be gobbled by the PLC or possibly Sweden, short of a partition of Poland taking place. In such a case Royal and Ducal Prussia would be the natural prize of Saxony and useful to grab a bigger slice of Baltic trade. The Wettin shall be thoroughly focused on Germany, so it is likely they neglect Poland and no Saxon-Polish dynastic union ever takes place. To them Poland may be an ally, a rival, or an useful buffer against Russia, depending on circumstances. If the internal decay of the PLC still takes place, it may be partitioned more or less the same way (although Sweden might be an actor as well) or be kept in its weakened state as a buffer, although at least some loss of territory to stronger neighbors is likely. In any case, the Prussian Germans won’t any more relevant to the German nation than the German minorities in the kingdom of Hungary.
Saxon power shall likely make the Swedes give up any serious ambition of dominating northern Germany sooner rather than later and re-orient their strategic interests on Scandinavia and the Baltic. Saxony and Sweden might still become rivals about Baltic trade but if they can make a gainful compromise they may become solid allies against France, Poland, and Russia. If they cooperate their alliance can yield Sweden a united Scandinavia with the defeat of Denmark and continued control of Finland and the Baltic duchies thanks to successful containment of Russia. In exchange Saxony can get Schleswig-Holstein, Pomerania, and support for expansion in Germany.
The natural outcome of Saxony’s rise seems a northern German state very similar to 1867 Prussia or North German Confederation plus Franconia and Bohemia-Moravia. Quite possibly it may also include Palatinate, Alsace-Lorraine, and Luxemburg. It would form as Saxony pushes out Austrian and French influence, absorbs many of the small north German states, and turns the rest into thoroughly subservient vassals. It may or may not ever include Prussia, depending on what happens to Poland. Whether it would progress from that to complete German unification depends on its dealings with Austria and France, but mostly on how the Habsburg shall to react to Saxony’s success.
No doubt they are going to fight Saxony for hegemony in Germany for a good while, although given TTL loss of the lands of the Bohemian Crown and their parallel need to fight France and the Ottomans as well, they are unlikely to get any real success. We may assume that given their loss of Bohemia and Silesia, they shall be driven to try and expand in southern Germany, Italy, and the Balkans to compensate. IOTL Austria and Bavaria came fairly close to merging at least twice during their respective succession crises. For simplicity we may assume ITTL their union occurs out a dynastic merger or a succession war and Bavaria becomes Bohemia’s replacement for the Habsburg. Of course ITTL ‘Bavaria’ is only ever going to mean Old Bavaria. Quite possibly Franconia never merges with Old Bavaria and Austria, and as a matter of fact in all likelihood it gets absorbed by Saxony given its control of Thuringia and Bohemia.
If the Habsburg stubbornly keep fighing the Wettin to the bitter end for control of Germany, chances are they get thoroughly defeated and expelled from Germany. This may mean an unification of Germany rather similar to the OTL one but with a Germanized Bohemia-Moravia taking the place of Prussia, and Old Bavaria and Austria staying apart as a component of the Habsburg Empire. It may also mean the Habsburg lose all their German lands to Saxon Germany and are forced to reinvent themselves as an Hungarian-Italian-Balkan empire, if they can pull it off.
If the Habsburg are able to accept dualism with the Wettin in Germany as inevitable, they can forge a compromise that divides the German lands between their respective spheres of influence. This may mean the German nation becoming permanently divided between a northern state and a southern one (either unitary or federal), or Germany becoming a confederation ruled by the Saxon-Habsburg diarchy. In any case, if the Habsburg wish to keep a foothold in Germany once nationalism rises, they shall have to accept some kind of Ausgleich-style separation between their German and non-German holdings and a dualistic leadership of Germany. Otherwise German nationalism shall likely come to see them as an obstacle to unification and Saxony as its champion, and work to push them out, much like OTL. In such a case, they would be lucky if they can keep Austria and Bavaria.
On the other hand, if the Habsburg see the writing on the wall quickly enough, they can work to recoup their losses by focusing on expansion in southern Germany, Italy, and the Balkans. As it concerns the former, a feasible objective may be to consolidate and expand their holdings in Further Austria, and/or to make a serious bid for Switzerland. In this period the days of military glory were long past for the Swiss, so the Habsburg may well aim to gobble the Old Swiss Confederacy with some effort. Much the same way, they can make more of an earlier, decisive effort to expand in Northern Italy. In addition to Milan, Parma, Modena, the Legations, and Tuscany may well be up to grabs, quite possibly Venetia as well if the decay of the Venice Republic is advanced enough.
No doubt Austria would have to fight and defeat France, Savoy, and Venice to expand across southern Germany and northern Italy, but it may be doable, especially if they can make a deal with Saxony about Germany and make it neutral or even an ally against France. Savoy might go various ways, although a reasonable outcome might be it surviving as a buffer and possibly getting Genoa, Corsica, and Sardinia. Or these lands may get entirely swallowed by Austria or France as the ultimate outcome of their struggle. Austria may well be interested in grabbing Naples and Sicily, but this would be only feasible if Spain experiences a similar decay process as OTL. If it happens the Habsburg may ironically become the unifiers of Italy and be hailed by the Italians for that.
Alternatively, of course, France may defeat Austria and become the dominant power in the Italian lands, or much like OTL the French and Austrian bids cancel each other out giving Italian nationalism a pathway to success. Much like Germany, ITTL Italy might get permanently split between northern and southern halves ruled by different powers, but fragmentation of both nations in many small states and the temporal rule of the Church are going to become increasingly anachronistic and unsustainable over time.
Alternatively, or in addition, an Habsburg empire that finds its way blocked in Germany may refocus its ambitions on the Balkans. Once Ottoman power begins to decay, there is much to be gained from a sustained, concerted southward push if the Habsburg are not too distracted elsewhere (even if Italy would be a richer prize). In addition to Hungary and Croatia, they can certainly make a successful bid for Bosnia, Serbia, Moldavia, Wallachia, and Albania, especially if they can secure some decent alliances against the Ottomans. If they can make a gainful deal with Russia about partition of the Balkans and the Near East, they can aim to complete expulsion of the Turks from Europe, or even the destruction of the Ottoman Empire, a century or two earlier than OTL, once Ottoman decay sets in.
Regardless of whether the Wettin (or a Saxon-Austrian team-up) end up just unifying North Germany, Lesser Germany with a switch of Bohemia-Moravia and Bavaria, or Greater Germany, in all likelihood TTL Germany shall unify early enough to be a major player in the colonial game, on a level playing field with Britain and France, whose shares are going to be diminished accordingly. It shall likely be more trade-oriented than OTL, just as focused on industry and culture, more or less as militarist as France, and rather less interested in expansion in the East unless the Russians make themselves so much trouble to make it inevitable.
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Jul 3, 2017 19:47:15 GMT
In any case, wouldn't Alsace-Lorraine have a much better chance of being absorbed by Austria instead of Saxony? Seeing as there could be a good chance that Austria and Bavaria would merge in this scenario, a cohesive South German state from the Meuse to Istria would be a major player in Central Europe. Of course, the lands we call Belgium IOTL would also be partitioned in this scenario too, between the French and the Dutch. Another possibility would be that the houses of Hohenzollern and Wettin would merge together. The Hohenzollern family originally ruled Brandenburg, and keeping up with this thread, they might likely marry into the Wettins. As for Prussia itself, I could think of two scenarios:
1) Prussia is annexed entirely into Poland, integrating its German speakers heavily into Polish society and consolidating its control through the Polish noble families and Polonized minority families of Lithuanian, Ruthenian and German origin. Or;
2) Sweden annexed Prussia, increasing its control over the Baltic. However, if in the event that Poland and Sweden had entered a dynastic union, or made some compromise, it would be Sweden annexing the rump Lithuanian state populated by ethnic Lithuanians while Poland would be free to consolidate control over the lands of what is now Belarus and maybe half of Ukraine with the Dnieper acting as a border between Poland and Russia.
I suspect that Saxony in this case might act like a more successful and geopolitically savvy version of the Dutch, with its power projection and cultural ties. Saxony's military tradition wouldn't be the same as OTL Prussia, but they might also develop a different naval tradition. You could even have a Saxon expy of Frederick the Great who is obsessed with the idea of a strong and massive naval fleet (kinda like Peter the Great).
I can picture Austria in this scenario as being more focused on the Balkans and Hungary in particular. I wouldn't be surprised if Austria manages to play a major part in the potential partition of the Ottoman Empire, with Poland or Russia (or even both) taking part as well. For Austria, I can see its territory expand up to the Drina while Poland might create a set of pro-Polish client kingdoms in Serbia, Wallachia, Moldavia, Bulgaria, Albania and Greece. Venice would definitely be annexed by the Austrians to control the Adriatic trade routes, and the pro-Polish client kingdoms would have dynastic connections to the dominant Polish ruling family. Russia would in this case, have to settle for Georgia, Armenia and Kurdistan, with a rump Turkish state more or less being a Russian client state, as well as the Levant, leaving Mesopotamia within the Persian sphere, and the Mamelukes regaining their independence and control of Hejaz, while Yemen or Oman will annex the rest of the Arabian peninsula.
I suspect that with a larger population, Saxony might opt to build settler based colonies in Southern Africa or North America, with a chain of trading posts dotted around other parts of Africa. It might also depend on whether or not that the Dutch, English or French would have more lands in North America.
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Post by steve59 on Jul 3, 2017 22:39:56 GMT
In any case, wouldn't Alsace-Lorraine have a much better chance of being absorbed by Austria instead of Saxony? Seeing as there could be a good chance that Austria and Bavaria would merge in this scenario, a cohesive South German state from the Meuse to Istria would be a major player in Central Europe. Of course, the lands we call Belgium IOTL would also be partitioned in this scenario too, between the French and the Dutch. Another possibility would be that the houses of Hohenzollern and Wettin would merge together. The Hohenzollern family originally ruled Brandenburg, and keeping up with this thread, they might likely marry into the Wettins. As for Prussia itself, I could think of two scenarios: 1) Prussia is annexed entirely into Poland, integrating its German speakers heavily into Polish society and consolidating its control through the Polish noble families and Polonized minority families of Lithuanian, Ruthenian and German origin. Or; 2) Sweden annexed Prussia, increasing its control over the Baltic. However, if in the event that Poland and Sweden had entered a dynastic union, or made some compromise, it would be Sweden annexing the rump Lithuanian state populated by ethnic Lithuanians while Poland would be free to consolidate control over the lands of what is now Belarus and maybe half of Ukraine with the Dnieper acting as a border between Poland and Russia. I suspect that Saxony in this case might act like a more successful and geopolitically savvy version of the Dutch, with its power projection and cultural ties. Saxony's military tradition wouldn't be the same as OTL Prussia, but they might also develop a different naval tradition. You could even have a Saxon expy of Frederick the Great who is obsessed with the idea of a strong and massive naval fleet (kinda like Peter the Great). I can picture Austria in this scenario as being more focused on the Balkans and Hungary in particular. I wouldn't be surprised if Austria manages to play a major part in the potential partition of the Ottoman Empire, with Poland or Russia (or even both) taking part as well. For Austria, I can see its territory expand up to the Drina while Poland might create a set of pro-Polish client kingdoms in Serbia, Wallachia, Moldavia, Bulgaria, Albania and Greece. Venice would definitely be annexed by the Austrians to control the Adriatic trade routes, and the pro-Polish client kingdoms would have dynastic connections to the dominant Polish ruling family. Russia would in this case, have to settle for Georgia, Armenia and Kurdistan, with a rump Turkish state more or less being a Russian client state, as well as the Levant, leaving Mesopotamia within the Persian sphere, and the Mamelukes regaining their independence and control of Hejaz, while Yemen or Oman will annex the rest of the Arabian peninsula. I suspect that with a larger population, Saxony might opt to build settler based colonies in Southern Africa or North America, with a chain of trading posts dotted around other parts of Africa. It might also depend on whether or not that the Dutch, English or French would have more lands in North America. Presuming Alsace-Lorraine stayed German then I agree its probably more likely to be part of a S German Catholic state than a Protestant orientated one in the north. Not sure they would stay German however given that both provinces became French ruled prior to the French revolution and that was with Germany dominated by one powerful state/dynasty rather than split between two who could well be struggling for primacy. Plus if 'Austria' is reaching that far west and has a border with and probably at least tension with France isn't it likely to suffer over-stretch if it also tries advancing into the Balkans, even as much as OTL? Can see it seeking to dominate N Italy, because of the latter's wealth and proximity to Vienna, which will be even more the heartland of the Hapsburg state with the loss of Bohemia. Also seeking to 'liberate' Hungary but probably, presuming their reasonably successful not more than that. This would require also some agreement with Saxony such that Saxony doesn't object to such an increase in the power of its prime rival in Germany. Possibly there is a quid pro quo here with Austria accepting Saxon control of Hanover and the lower Rhineland/N sea coastline region? Doubt that Poland and Russia would co-operate that well together because of geographical and historical rivalries. Even if they did I can't really see Poland reaching that far into the Balkans. More likely I would think Romania at the most. Apart from anything else their presumably going to stay Catholic while most of this region is Orthodox and has bad memories of Catholic rule and its impact. More likely I think Poland and Russia will be bitter rivals and depending on how this turns out as to the future of the Ottoman empire. Can see Russia, if it becomes the dominate power as OTL reaching Constantinople especially given its cultural and economic interest in dominating the straits. Saxony may well have some colonial territories in the Americas and Africa, if only because of the potential wealth from the slave trade and sugar islands in much of this period. However its going to be predominantly a continental power simply because that is where its centre of power is and unless it assumes a dominance of Germany such as Prussia did by 1870/71 the potential threats from France, Austria and Poland/Russia depending on who's to the east will mean its main priority will be to safeguard the homeland and hence army rather than navy. Even France with a larger population base and better geographical position ultimately lost out to Britain because it couldn't concentrate on naval expansion due to the needs to maintain a large army. As such I would expect it would be a 2nd level colonial power, such as the Dutch were OTL, especially since coming to the board a bit later it will struggle more to find easy lands to colonise, at least in the Americas. I suspect, presuming that Russia wins out over Poland, Saxony could well end up with the Prussian provinces and neighbouring areas of Poland, possibly very similar to the 1815-1914 borders between Prussia/Germany and Russia simply because a failing Poland will provide room for expansion of power and it won't want Russia to get too much of this territory and too close to the Saxon heartlands. You might even end up, if Poland decays as OTL, with partitions similar to the historical ones but with Saxony in Prussia's place. I doubt Sweden will have the staying power to resist both Poland and later Russia and secure the Prussian provinces. |
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Post by MarshalBraginsky on Jul 4, 2017 3:20:09 GMT
Originally quoted by steve59:
That is the most likely scenario. Having a South German state while trying to expand into the Balkans would result in a far bloodier collapse that makes the collapse of Austria-Hungary look like the Velvet Divorce. I could see Austria and Saxony compromising on where their spheres of influence would lie. Saxony, with its control over northern and western Germany, would no doubt focus on maritime trade with Scandinavia and Britain while Austria would probably reorient itself towards the Adriatic.
OTL Great Northern War did have an episode where Poland under Augustus II (from Saxony) fought together with Russia against Sweden before he was overthrown. It wouldn't be farfetched to have Poland and Russia form an uneasy alliance in the face of their targeted common enemy, from Sweden to the Ottoman Turks. I don't mean total Polish conquest of the Balkans and annexing it, I meant that Poland might install client kings who would be friendly to Polish interests. They would still follow the faith of their subjects though.
I could imagine Saxony ditching North America for parts of Africa (I wouldn't be surprised if the lands of what is now OTL South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Angola may end up controlled by the Saxon colonists) and perhaps a lot of trading posts dotted around the world. Heck, they could even establish smaller colonies on the Indian subcontinent.
I suspect that both Saxony and Russia would want a rump Polish state to serve as a buffer between the two nations. Moreover, there's always Sweden or united Scandinavia to serve as another buffer zone. However, Russia would be hemmed in by a rump Polish state and a much stronger Sweden or Scandinavia.
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Post by MinnesotaNationalist on Jul 4, 2017 3:57:53 GMT
I suspect, presuming that Russia wins out over Poland, Saxony could well end up with the Prussian provinces and neighbouring areas of Poland, possibly very similar to the 1815-1914 borders between Prussia/Germany and Russia simply because a failing Poland will provide room for expansion of power and it won't want Russia to get too much of this territory and too close to the Saxon heartlands. You might even end up, if Poland decays as OTL, with partitions similar to the historical ones but with Saxony in Prussia's place. I doubt Sweden will have the staying power to resist both Poland and later Russia and secure the Prussian provinces. I'm definitely going to say the the complete disintegration of Poland is extremely unlikely. Partitioning Poland was Prussia's idea, as a quick way to join the two main parts of their empire together, a problem that Saxony wouldn't have. As long as Poland could be left alive as a puppet, Russia and Austria would be happy, and I don't think Saxony would object. |
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Post by steve59 on Jul 4, 2017 9:24:26 GMT
I suspect, presuming that Russia wins out over Poland, Saxony could well end up with the Prussian provinces and neighbouring areas of Poland, possibly very similar to the 1815-1914 borders between Prussia/Germany and Russia simply because a failing Poland will provide room for expansion of power and it won't want Russia to get too much of this territory and too close to the Saxon heartlands. You might even end up, if Poland decays as OTL, with partitions similar to the historical ones but with Saxony in Prussia's place. I doubt Sweden will have the staying power to resist both Poland and later Russia and secure the Prussian provinces. I'm definitely going to say the the complete disintegration of Poland is extremely unlikely. Partitioning Poland was Prussia's idea, as a quick way to join the two main parts of their empire together, a problem that Saxony wouldn't have. As long as Poland could be left alive as a puppet, Russia and Austria would be happy, and I don't think Saxony would object. Interesting as from what I've read the driver was Russia, although Prussia was more than willing to take a large share and it was only really Austria that was reluctant about the partitions. It was Russia that was most hostile to the attempts to reform the constitution in Poland and used that to intervene, both to keep the country weak and to cut off chunks. True in this case it may well be less likely as you could have both Austria and Saxony not willing to see a Poland buffer between them and Russia destroyed. Hence they could well oppose such a move and even support Poland against Russia. A lot would depend on events elsewhere of course. If pressure is coming up on Poland at the same time as a crisis such as the French revolution OTL either/both German states may be too busy with that crisis to be in a position to block Russian moves. Or simply feeling they can't/won't fight to defend Poland because of events elsewhere. |
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