Post by lordroel on Jul 25, 2017 17:31:37 GMT
What if: Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance in 1939
So, lets see if anybody here has some opinion on this.
How would the world look today if the French and Brits responded positively to a offer made by Stalin on August 15th 1939, papers which were kept secret for almost 70 years show that the Soviet Union two weeks before war broke out in 1939 proposed sending a powerful military force in an effort to entice Britain and France into an anti-Nazi alliance. But the British and French delegation that had a meeting on August 15th 1939 at the Kremlin with a senior Soviet military delegation made up of the chief of the general staff, Boris Shaposhnikov, Defense Commissar Kliment Voroshilov and the naval minister, Admiral Nikolai Kusnezov who offered to dispatch 120 infantry divisions (each with some 19,000 troops), 16 cavalry divisions, 5,000 heavy artillery pieces, 9,500 tanks and up to 5,500 fighter aircraft and bombers on Germany's borders in the event of war in the west if Polish objections to the Soviet Army crossing its territory could first be overcome. But Admiral Sir Reginald Drax, who was leading the British delegation briefed by their governments to talk, but not authorized to commit to binding deals - did not respond to the Soviet offer. Instead, Stalin turned to Germany, signing the notorious non-aggression treaty named the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact after the foreign secretaries of the two countries barely a week later.
Photo of the arrival of the British-French delegation in Moscow
But what if the British and French had taken this offer seriously then together the British, French and Soviet armies could have put some 300 or more divisions into the field on two fronts against Germany - double the number Hitler had at the time, this might have forced Hitler to backed off, lest he trigger a two-front war. Hitler believed that he could defeat Poland well before the western powers could intervene, but could scarcely have entertained the same hope with regard to the Soviet Union. In his manifesto, Mein Kampf, the Nazi leader warned against the danger of fighting on two fronts. And, if anything, his generals feared that prospect more than he did. A secret resistance to Hitler among the men of the German High Command already existed. An alliance between the British, French and Soviets might have made Hitler’s foreign policy course seem so reckless as to spur that resistance into action.
But Hitler might have invaded Poland anyway. It was well known throughout Europe that Stalin’s military purges of the late 1930s had enormously damaged the Soviet armed forces. Hitler had contempt not only for the Soviet military but for its political leadership, and, countervailing alliance or no countervailing alliance, may well have pressed ahead with an attack on Poland, gambling that he could eliminate Poland before the Red Army could lumber into action and intervene effectively.
An Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance might have achieved the desired effect of deterring Hitler from invading Poland. But an alliance also might merely have postponed that invasion while Hitler engaged in more of the diplomatic maneuvering that had characterized his foreign policy for years. Or a Soviet alliance with the Western Allies could have had scant effect, with Germany invading Poland on September 1st 1939, as occurred historically.
What then would have been the impact of an alliance between the Soviet Union, Great Britain and the French Republic? In many respects the Soviet Union would have annexed the Baltic states and Eastern European would fall under its sphere of influence. But although it is unlikely that it would have helped the Poles fend off the Germans, the Soviet Union could have wound up holding onto an eastern strip of Polish territory.
The main difference—and this is vital—is that instead of a second front breaking open with the surprise attack of Operation Barbarossa in June 1941, war would have broken out between Germany and the Soviet Union in Sept ember 1939. The French army would have stood undefeated, Britain’s forces on the continent would have remained formidable, and, whatever their military shortcomings, the Soviets would have threatened Germany in a way that Hitler could not have ignored. In short, an Anglo-French-Soviet alliance might not have achieved its objective of deterring war. But the alliance would have forced Germany into a two-front conflict that would have played out very differently— to Germany’s disadvantage.
In the end no such alliance was formed, Poland whose territory the vast Soviet army would have had to cross to confront Germany, was firmly against such an alliance as they had good reasons to mistrust the Soviet Union and Britain was doubtful about the efficacy of any Soviet forces because only the previous year, Stalin had purged thousands of top Red Army commanders.
A desperate attempt by the French on August 21st to revive the talks was rebuffed, as secret Soviet-Nazi talks were already well advanced, it was only two years later, following Hitler's Blitzkreig attack on Russia in June 1941, that the alliance with the West which Stalin had sought finally came about - by which time France, Poland and much of the rest of Europe were already under German occupation.
So, lets see if anybody here has some opinion on this.
How would the world look today if the French and Brits responded positively to a offer made by Stalin on August 15th 1939, papers which were kept secret for almost 70 years show that the Soviet Union two weeks before war broke out in 1939 proposed sending a powerful military force in an effort to entice Britain and France into an anti-Nazi alliance. But the British and French delegation that had a meeting on August 15th 1939 at the Kremlin with a senior Soviet military delegation made up of the chief of the general staff, Boris Shaposhnikov, Defense Commissar Kliment Voroshilov and the naval minister, Admiral Nikolai Kusnezov who offered to dispatch 120 infantry divisions (each with some 19,000 troops), 16 cavalry divisions, 5,000 heavy artillery pieces, 9,500 tanks and up to 5,500 fighter aircraft and bombers on Germany's borders in the event of war in the west if Polish objections to the Soviet Army crossing its territory could first be overcome. But Admiral Sir Reginald Drax, who was leading the British delegation briefed by their governments to talk, but not authorized to commit to binding deals - did not respond to the Soviet offer. Instead, Stalin turned to Germany, signing the notorious non-aggression treaty named the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact after the foreign secretaries of the two countries barely a week later.
Photo of the arrival of the British-French delegation in Moscow
But what if the British and French had taken this offer seriously then together the British, French and Soviet armies could have put some 300 or more divisions into the field on two fronts against Germany - double the number Hitler had at the time, this might have forced Hitler to backed off, lest he trigger a two-front war. Hitler believed that he could defeat Poland well before the western powers could intervene, but could scarcely have entertained the same hope with regard to the Soviet Union. In his manifesto, Mein Kampf, the Nazi leader warned against the danger of fighting on two fronts. And, if anything, his generals feared that prospect more than he did. A secret resistance to Hitler among the men of the German High Command already existed. An alliance between the British, French and Soviets might have made Hitler’s foreign policy course seem so reckless as to spur that resistance into action.
But Hitler might have invaded Poland anyway. It was well known throughout Europe that Stalin’s military purges of the late 1930s had enormously damaged the Soviet armed forces. Hitler had contempt not only for the Soviet military but for its political leadership, and, countervailing alliance or no countervailing alliance, may well have pressed ahead with an attack on Poland, gambling that he could eliminate Poland before the Red Army could lumber into action and intervene effectively.
An Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance might have achieved the desired effect of deterring Hitler from invading Poland. But an alliance also might merely have postponed that invasion while Hitler engaged in more of the diplomatic maneuvering that had characterized his foreign policy for years. Or a Soviet alliance with the Western Allies could have had scant effect, with Germany invading Poland on September 1st 1939, as occurred historically.
What then would have been the impact of an alliance between the Soviet Union, Great Britain and the French Republic? In many respects the Soviet Union would have annexed the Baltic states and Eastern European would fall under its sphere of influence. But although it is unlikely that it would have helped the Poles fend off the Germans, the Soviet Union could have wound up holding onto an eastern strip of Polish territory.
The main difference—and this is vital—is that instead of a second front breaking open with the surprise attack of Operation Barbarossa in June 1941, war would have broken out between Germany and the Soviet Union in Sept ember 1939. The French army would have stood undefeated, Britain’s forces on the continent would have remained formidable, and, whatever their military shortcomings, the Soviets would have threatened Germany in a way that Hitler could not have ignored. In short, an Anglo-French-Soviet alliance might not have achieved its objective of deterring war. But the alliance would have forced Germany into a two-front conflict that would have played out very differently— to Germany’s disadvantage.
In the end no such alliance was formed, Poland whose territory the vast Soviet army would have had to cross to confront Germany, was firmly against such an alliance as they had good reasons to mistrust the Soviet Union and Britain was doubtful about the efficacy of any Soviet forces because only the previous year, Stalin had purged thousands of top Red Army commanders.
A desperate attempt by the French on August 21st to revive the talks was rebuffed, as secret Soviet-Nazi talks were already well advanced, it was only two years later, following Hitler's Blitzkreig attack on Russia in June 1941, that the alliance with the West which Stalin had sought finally came about - by which time France, Poland and much of the rest of Europe were already under German occupation.
