Switch the Fates of the Iberian and Balkan Peninsulas

[MarshalBraginsky]

So basically the Balkan peninsula is fractured at worst, with ethnic, religious and ideological tensions possibly bubbling under the surface, while the Iberian Peninsula eventually hosted two influential empires, Spain and Portugal. Also, Turkey has a slice of European territory in Turkish Thrace.

What would be a good PoD for the Iberian Peninsula to be balkanized and for the Balkan peninsula to be the center of a powerful empire? Surviving Byzantines might be the usual suspect, or possibly a surviving Bulgarian Empire or Serbian Empire might also work as well, or a Serbo-Bulgarian union in the east and a larger Croatian Kingdom west of the Drina river.

[steve59]

Aug 8, 2017 1:54:57 GMT MarshalBraginsky said:

So basically the Balkan peninsula is fractured at worst, with ethnic, religious and ideological tensions possibly bubbling under the surface, while the Iberian Peninsula eventually hosted two influential empires, Spain and Portugal. Also, Turkey has a slice of European territory in Turkish Thrace.

What would be a good PoD for the Iberian Peninsula to be balkanized and for the Balkan peninsula to be the center of a powerful empire? Surviving Byzantines might be the usual suspect, or possibly a surviving Bulgarian Empire or Serbian Empire might also work as well, or a Serbo-Bulgarian union in the east and a larger Croatian Kingdom west of the Drina river.

  As you say a surviving and successful Byzantium empire is the obvious POD for a fairly stable and unified Balkans.  Have been thinking however about how if Serbia becomes the dominant power in the region.  Say either Stefan V is a much stronger leader or even say the Battle of Kosovo instead of being a mutually destructive bloodbath is a crushing victory for the Serbs.  If the bulk of the Ottoman army was destroyed, say in an ambush with the Serbs still being able to maintain a strong army and both Sultan Murad and his son and heir Bayezid killed.  The Ottomans still have a lot of forces elsewhere but there could well be a succession struggle while Prince Lazar might be able to secure his position as Serb leader and possibly restore much of Stefan IV's empire, driving the Turks from most/all of Europe.  Then Tamerlane still comes along as OTL in 1402 and crushes the reviving Ottomans at a Battle of Ankara equivalent.  This would be much worse for them as without European resources to call upon it would be loyalist forces in Anatolia from which they helped stage their OTL recovery.  You might still see an Ottoman state revive and dominate Anatolia but it might never get a foothold in Europe again, or it just fritters out and the region is left divided.  Serbia becomes the champion of the Orthodox states south of Russia and gradually absorbs Bulgaria and the remaining Byzantium possessions.  An earlier Byzantine revival is easier but I think Serbia would be an interesting alternative.

  In terms of keeping Iberia divided it possibly needs more conflict or bad luck between the Christian states and a powerful Muslim presence in N Africa that continues to interfere in support of their fellow coreligionist in Iberia, keeping the region divided.  That would seem to be the easiest bet, although a Muslim help Gibraltar straits could impact on European development considerably.

[MinnesotaNationalist]

One straight-forward (if improbable) way to get Iberia divided is this: Iberia has a long history of different peoples migrating or invading the Peninsula. Basques are the first and closest thing to Native in Iberia, followed by Celts, Greeks, Phoenicians/Carthaginians, Romans, Jews, Germans, and then Moors. Have all of these cultures survive with a good degree of prominence and you don't even have to worry about dividing up the Romance or anyone into further sub-groups (although, I'm sure there will be divisions, at least micro-fissures). Add on top of that divide these groups between Catholicism, Islam, and either traditional religions or some sort of Protestantism and you have yourself a recipe for a powder keg.

Also, for Balkans, assuming you want to follow the formula nearly word for word, you have to find a way to make the peninsula religiously unified (probably under Orthodoxy). Bulgaria would probably play the Portugal-equivalent, Serbia would play as Castille, either Greece or Albania as the Basque (maybe also the Celts), and the Croatians and Slovenes would play as the Catalonians, Leonians, Andalusians and whoever else you want to get in there.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Serbia or Bulgaria are logical choices, but would Wallachia also qualify to become the nation that unifies and hegemonizes the Balkans?

For Serbia as a regional hegemon, perhaps a different successor to Stefan Dusan would be much better than Stefan Uros V (since from what I heard, he wasn't that much of a good successor to the Serbian Tsar). Having a different successor like say, Simeon Uros, would have also allowed Serbia to stabilize itself and position itself as a bulwark against the Muslim Turkic invaders. For the Portugal analogue, I think Croatia would have been better suited for this role, with Bulgaria taking the role of Aragon. However, Bulgaria might also qualify for the regional hegemon as well, but with a lot more power and influence since the Second Bulgarian Empire had controlled not only modern Bulgaria and Macedonia, but also Thessaly, Wallachia and Moldavia (the latter two aren't even a part of the Balkan peninsula!).

A surviving Andalusia that retains its Muslim character could be a good analogue of Turkish Thrace for say, Morocco. Having multiple squabbling successors to various Iberian monarchs might also be a good solution to fracturing the Iberian peninsula. Leon, Portugal, Galicia, Aragon, Castille, Navarre. Those could be good Iberian analogues to the Balkan states. However, these scenarios might require a PoD that makes Eastern Europe economically and politically superior to Western Europe.

[spanishspy]

If you want to do twentieth century, you can have the Spanish Civil War break the country apart whilst the plan to merge Yugoslavia and Bulgaria succeeds, as well as Yugoslavia nabbing Albania. Wouldn't be perfect but it's something.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Aug 9, 2017 4:54:25 GMT spanishspy said:

If you want to do twentieth century, you can have the Spanish Civil War break the country apart whilst the plan to merge Yugoslavia and Bulgaria succeeds, as well as Yugoslavia nabbing Albania. Wouldn't be perfect but it's something.

Twentieth century wise, it might be easy to have "Revolutionary" Catalonia survive as an anarcho-communist state while the rest of Spain could fracture into a southern Republic and a northern Falangist state.

Although a fractured Iberian peninsula would create massive butterflies, starting with the possibility of delayed Age of Exploration (Columbus might work for France or England, or John Cabot might become the guy who discovered America).