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Post by Rhand on Oct 29, 2017 5:51:17 GMT
Because it's less cliche and more feasible than Nazi/Axis Victory.  Anyways, rules of the challenge: in broad strokes diplomatically, the war goes as in OTL. IOW, Japan will fight China/GB/FR, and USA will enter at some point (though no nation has to be as committed as it was in OTL). Aside from that, any POD or combination of PODs (in any nation) after 1935 is fine, so long as it is well within reason and not ASB. |
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Post by steve59 on Oct 29, 2017 16:15:46 GMT
Best option I can see is that things develop roughly as OTL [for simplicities state if nothing else] and in Dec 41 Japan attacks the European colonies to gain their resources but doesn't attack the US.
Roosevelt manages to get a dow through Congress, although with some resistance as a lot of opponents are arguing against sending 'US boys to defence European imperialism'.
Japan quickly attacks US forces on the Philippines and Guam, neutralising the former and seizing the latter. Landings start in the Philippines a little later as forces are made available and after a few days MacArthur retreats into the Bataan penisnsula as OTL.
The USN has reinforced its Pacific fleet with much of its Atlantic units and launched a couple of raids on the Marshall's although with limited impact and with say a CV sunk/damaged by an enemy sub.
Under growing political pressure to do something after declaring war Roosevelt overrides naval advice and orders the USN to relieve the Philippines, or at least seek combat with the Japanese fleet. [This might be the bit that is closest to ASB depending on viewpoint].
The US combined fleet advances slowly due to the speed of the battlefleet and of the merchant ships carrying some reinforcment troops and a lot of supplies. Carriers are used largely as single units with light escorts for scouting activities, as per USN doctrine at the time.
This is the sort of battle the IJN has spend the last two decades planning for. Numerous clashes sees losses on both sides but more and more US ships taking damage and a couple of American CVs sunk or damaged and forced to withdraw as their isolated squads are attacked, by subs, land based a/c lighter forces in night attack and occasionally by large carrier strikes.
Near the Philippines the battle intensives. A major strike renders inoperable the last US carriers and hence leaves the fleet without air support. Further attack by both land and carrier based a/c whittle down the US scouts especially while the US commanders, knowing the core of their battlefleet is still intact plough on for the moment.
The reinforcement forces are landed in eastern Luzon but the Japanese throw their full forces against the American fleet, both repeated heavy air attacks and then a night attack which shows the Japanese experience in night combat. This causes heavy losses in the US fleet, although Japanese losses are also high with a couple of BBs lost of their own.
At this point the US fleet tries to withdraw but its slow speed, even without increasing damage to many ships, means that the bulk can't get away as their defences are steadily overwhelmed. Air power is the biggest killer as ships are increasingly damaged and isolated and AA ammunition is exhausted. However at night Japanese cruisers and destroyers pick off many stragglers while a powerful fast BB force also hits the larger squadrons. Furthermore with destroyers increasingly rare the heavy ships are also vulnerable to Japanese subs.
It is a shattered remament of the fleet that limps back to Pearl with only 4 capital ships left, two of which are seriously damaged. Only one Carrier has made it back and many cruisers and destroyers were lost. With the large programme of construction under way the US can make up the losses but it will take a couple of years at least while the trained manpower will take even longer. This is a political disaster and many call for Roosevelt's resignation.
Matters are compounded by the fact the relief experdition, being of regular troops but without any combat experience after some early successes, are also isolated and much of their equipment and supplies destroyed by air and artillery attacks while Japanese troops prove much better at the sort of jungle fighting that occurs. The army is forced to surrender within 6 weeks, the second half of the period being largely isolated and straved out.
Washington is in turmoil, worsened by Roosevelt being crippled by a stroke which causes further confusion. Hitler has already declared war on the US and is sinking vast amounts of shipping off the US coasts and in the Carribean.
In May 42, having completed their aims of occupying Malaya, the DEI, Burma and the Philippines and defeating British, Dutch and America forces in the region the Japanese offer peace. They will agree to respect property rights in the occupied territories and return POWs but their gains will stay under Japanese control. [This is another ASB point potentially but with 6 yeard from the POD you can possibly have the more rational elements of the Japanese government having a lot more power].
With the western powers in turmoil and no chance of regaining the lands in the near future, plus what looks like disaster in Europe as well as the Germans start new campaigns in Russia and N AFrica after some hurried consultation Britain and the US agree to Japanese terms. [Or you could have one break ranks and the other feeling obliged to follow suit.]
Anyway, difficult to see the US agreeing to terms after such an humilation but given it was technically the aggressor and the level of poilitical infighting in Washington after such a disaster there could well be questions about the will to continue the war from such a terrible position.
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Post by Rhand on Oct 29, 2017 16:36:52 GMT
Wow, that's really well-thought out! I like the idea.
I initially thought about a land invasion of Hawaii (I believe this was an essay topic in the What If series by military historians), but after doing more research, I realized that it was logistically unfeasible from the Japanese position.
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Post by steve59 on Oct 30, 2017 20:08:00 GMT
Wow, that's really well-thought out! I like the idea. I initially thought about a land invasion of Hawaii (I believe this was an essay topic in the What If series by military historians), but after doing more research, I realized that it was logistically unfeasible from the Japanese position. Not the ASB supplied nuke but the idea of only attacking the European powers and the effects of the US declaring war and suffering a heavy early defeat is something I've thought about for a while. As I say the idea of a relief operation for the Philippines was something the USN had already rejected as impossible but its possible, although I suspect unlikely, that political needs could trump military doctrine. If the US did try such a move it is likely to lose, although nothing is certain in war, although it might not be as devastating as I project. Given the potential conflict that could occur in Congress and the war becoming wildly unpopular then if Japan settled for a quick if limited victory they might get away with it. Mind you given the mentality of the Japanese military at the time this is by no means certain. |
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Post by punkrockbowler805 on Nov 18, 2017 5:02:36 GMT
Strike North faction in IJA wins out and they join Barbarossa in exchange for Hitler making Vichy France and the Netherlands cede them Indochina and oil concessions in the DEI. Zhukov is stuck fighting on the Manchurian border and Moscow is besieged instead of Stalingrad. They're busy in China and the USSR and skip Pearl harbor. The US public wants to sit out the Commie Versus Fascist war but FDR uses U boat raids in the Atlantic to enter the war. Without Pearl Harbor the US accepts a cease fire with Japan later.
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