Post by mcnutt on Dec 9, 2017 4:12:51 GMT
The conventional wisdom during the early Reagan years was that the President would not seek a second term. What if he did not seek reelection. The P.O.D. can be President Reagan suffers a health problem. ITTL in 1984, Vice President George H. W. Bush wins the nomination and in the good economic times, he also wins the election. He does not have the advantages of incumbency and is not as popular as Reagan was. So Walter Mondale does not feel the need for a dramatic gesture. He picks Michael Dukakis instead of Geraldine Ferraro. Bush wins a 53% to 45% margin like he did OTL in 1988. Mondale carries Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Washington DC, West Virginia, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii. So the Electoral College is split 367 Bush 171 Mondale. Just as he did OTL President Bush appoints James Baker to be Secretary of State. Bush would have listened to his friend. Since Baker would have opposed selling arms to Iran there is no Iran Contra scandal. With the good economy in 1988, Bush is reelected in a historic landslide. Since Dukakis' weakness as a candidate were revealed in 1984, Dick Gephardt wins the nomination and loses 59% to 40% in the popular vote. Since Gephardt only carries Massachusetts and Rhode Island, he is defeated in the Electoral College 521 to 17. The Persian Gulf war happens on schedule. President Bush's surge in popularity does not effect the 1992 election, since Bush can't run. The important factor in that election is the bad economy. Democrat Paul Tsongas wins. Dan Quayle was in the Senate in 1984 so he is Bush's running mate like he was OLT in 1988. Quayle loses the race for the 1992 Republican nomination to Bob Dole. In the popular vote Dole loses to Tsongas 46% to 37% with 15% going to Perot. Tsongas carries Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico,Arizona,Nevada,California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington and Montana. So the Electoral College score in Tsongas 334 Dole 202. The mystery is will President Tsongas live through his first term. OTL he died of cancer in 1997. ITTL we are dramatically increasing his job stress.
