British political WI's?

[mullauna]

1) What if Douglas-Home had won the 1964 election (he lost narrowly)

2) Wilson beats Heath in 1970 (the opinion polls all pointed 2 a Wilson win)

3) Heath gets a deal with the Liberals after the Feb 74 election.

4) Someone else other than Mrs Thatcher becomes Tory leader in 1975.

5) Callaghan calls a general election in October 78 (as he nearly did)

6) Mrs Thatcher holds to the Premiership in November 90 (she was only 4 votes shy of winning on the first ballot)

6) Labour win the 1992 election (maybe in a partnership with Lib Dems)

7) John Smith doesn't die in May 94 so Tony Blair doesn't become Labour leader



I feel there are some great what ifs here

[steve59]

Feb 8, 2018 0:33:59 GMT mullauna said:

1) What if Douglas-Home had won the 1964 election (he lost narrowly)

2) Wilson beats Heath in 1970 (the opinion polls all pointed 2 a Wilson win)

3) Heath gets a deal with the Liberals after the Feb 74 election.

4) Someone else other than Mrs Thatcher becomes Tory leader in 1975.

5) Callaghan calls a general election in October 78 (as he nearly did)

6) Mrs Thatcher holds to the Premiership in November 90 (she was only 4 votes shy of winning on the first ballot)

6) Labour win the 1992 election (maybe in a partnership with Lib Dems)

7) John Smith doesn't die in May 94 so Tony Blair doesn't become Labour leader

I feel there are some great what ifs here

Very true. Plenty of options which could change things, possibly dramatically. Options 3, 4 & 5 I find especially attractive as they might avoid the Thatcherism disaster totally. There was bound to be a kick back against excessive union power at some stage but it didn't have to be a swing even further to the other extreme with the accompanying corruption and contempt for the people of Britain.

7 would also be very interesting as it seems like another great lost opportunity for Britain as Smith seems to have been a real reformer rather than a pseudo-Thatcherite like Blair.

6 Would probably lead to the Tories losing the 92 election as she was increasingly losing the plot but a lot would depend on if Labour won and if so what sort of Labour party, or whether it was a hung parliament.

Must admit 1 & 2 are early enough I know very little about them. One possible result of 2 might be that Wilson doesn't join the EEC and the EFTA stays an active alternative, as Labour were the primary anti-EEC party and the Tories the party most in favour of it. This would almost certainly mean that Ireland stays outside the EEC as well and if a later British government doesn't change this position then when the Soviet empire falls you have another option for most of eastern Europe. Which would give Europe more flexibility and allow Britain to stay focused on the wider world in terms of business and trade.

Another option might be that the 2010 election sees the Tories do a bit worse and Labour and/or the LibDems somewhat better so an alliance between the latter two is practical. While Clegg himself tends towards the right more I think its fair to say that the bulk of the party support at the time was more radical. Its still likely to be bad for the LibDems in the short term as Clegg was a bad leader and the junior member of the coalition, especially with the bias of the established media. However probably not as bad as the suicide policy that the OTL alliance with the Tory party was. [Under those circumstances there's a decent chance I might still be a member]. Possibly even more important you might see both electoral reform and real reform of the banking and financial sectors rather than the white-wash that occurred. The latter especially has a chance to give the British economy a huge boost if it at least cut back at the massive cancer that the current financial sector is. On the down side you are less likely to get the referendum on EU membership but if you get Britain being better managed and more successful the issue is still likely to come to a head at some point.

[mullauna]

Some very short initial thoughts now which I'll expand on in the next few days...

The 1964 election was very close. Perhaps a more relevant question is to ask whether another Conservative leader would have won. When McMillan was forced to resign with ill-health (though he was to live for another 23 years or so !!)during the Tory Conference at Blackpool in 1963 the leading contenders were R.A. Butler (known as RAB) and Quentin Hogg (later Lord Hailsham). The problem was the Tory leader was not chosen democratically, in fact there was no vote at all, even for MPs. The leaders of the 1922 Committee effectively chose the leader. Hume was very much a compromise candidate but was supported by the patrician aristocratic Tory grandees who distrusted Butler and, to a lesser extent, possibles like Hogg and Maudling. Hume was mauled by Wilson in the Commons before the October 1964 election. Had Butler been PM, it might have been different.

Two factors allegedly brought about Wilson's defeat in June 1970. One was a sharp deterioration in trade figures with a major deficit caused, I believe, by the purchase of 707s from Boeing, the other was England's defeat by West Germany in the World Cup Quarter-Final. Had either event turned out differently....

Heath had very little to offer Thorpe in February 1974. He couldn't offer proportional representation or a seat in Cabinet because that was opposed by other Tories.

Mrs Thatcher moved very quickly once Heath stood down in early 1975. In the first ballot, she did unexpectedly well and gained valuable momentum which allowed her to defeat the more obvious candidate, Whitelaw.

Callaghan would probably have won an election in October 1978 but would have still faced problems with the trade unions and the oil price-induced recession of 1979-80. The SDP would never have existed but I think Labour would have lost in 1982 or 1983 to the Tories under Whitelaw.

Mrs Thatcher's survival in October 1990 is fascinating. For what it's worth, I think she would have beaten Kinnock in 1992 but would have lost to Blair in 1997. I'll have to give this one more thought including WI Heseltine became Prime Minister...

Assuming we have a 1992 election as we know it (Kinnock vs Major) we don't have the triumphalism of the Sheffield Rally and we have a better-crafted taxation policy. With that, we don't get a Labour win but a hung Parliament. Again, more thought needed...

I think Smith would have beaten Major in 1997 just as Blair did but with Gordon Brown as the obvious heir apparent. When Smith's health problems cause him to step down in 2000, Brown becomes PM with Blair remaining Home Secretary. Again, I'll come back to this...

This is going to keep me busy.