Post by eurofed on Feb 11, 2018 21:01:05 GMT
ITTL, during the successful negotiations for the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, the German and Soviet governments agree to deliver a joint ultimatum to Poland for the fulfillment of their territorial demands. A few days after the signing of the pact, Berlin and Moscow deliver the ultimatum, asking for the cession of the territories Germany owned before 1914 and the renunciation of all the rights Poland has over Danzig for Germany, and the cession of all the lands beyond the Curzon Line for the USSR. The deal also involves a forced population transfer of the Jew and Polish population in the annexed territories to Poland, as the German and Soviet governments may deem fit to enforce. Failure to comply with the ultimatum shall cause Germany and the USSR to enforce its terms by combined military action, and then deal with the Polish lands as they may deem fit (i.e. implied threat of a full partition of Poland in case of non-compliance).
The Polish government realizes it faces the hard choice of submitting to the ultimatum, or facing the terrible risk of a two-front war and the likely destruction of their state, even with possible Anglo-French help. If they submit, they have the chance of surviving by accepting vassallization to either totalitarian power (most likely Germany, as Romania did IOTL in similar circumstances, and as Hitler had previously offered) and possibly recovering part of their losses if and when the German-Soviet alliance of convenience falls apart.
Britain and France acknowledge the option of military action against Germany alone is no longer a realistic choice, politically or strategically. They may deem Poland and Eastern Europe at large beyond their help and throw it to the totalitarian wolves, fortify on the Rhine, and wait and hope for a German-Soviet clash. Alternatively, they may accept the very uphill task of fighting both Germany and Russia at once, and in all likelihood then activate Operation Pike (their contingency plan for bombing the Baku oilfields). In the latter case, the USSR almost surely retaliates by invading the Middle East. Of course, if Poland submits to the ultimatum, the Western powers have no reason for action, apart from intensifying their rearmament programs.
Therefore, what do you think Poland, Britain, and France shall most likely do?
In any case, I assume Italy shall almost surely stick to the alliance with Germany, even with the USSR as a third member. Mussolini was even more of an opportunist than Hitler, Italian fascists were just as able to swallow their ideologic scruples about an alliance of convenience with Russian communists as their German counterparts, and the practical (strategic, territorial, and economic) benefits of sticking to the Axis seem much bigger for Italy than anything Britain and France can realistically offer the Italians. After the Fall of France (even easier to accomplish in this scenario), it would be easy for Germany, Italy, and the USSR to cooperate to wipe the British entirely out of the Med and the Middle East, and there is little Britain can realistically do to stop them (at least until America joins the war and can mobilize its potential), all the way from Gibraltar (quite likely Spain and Vichy France would opportunistically join the super-Axis as co-belligerants ITTL) to the Indus.
On the other hand, there may be a genuine chance Japan accepts the offer of an alliance with the Western powers, if the latter can swallow the price of giving the Japanese somewhat of a blank check about China. The Japanese have their own long-standing ambitions on the Russian Far East, and have been recently fighting a border war with the USSR. Japan in the Allied coalition would be very distasteful for America, but likely not to the point of the Americans denying its support to the coalition (in all likelihood, however, Tokyo would only get a trickle of L-L, unless it accepts an onerous compromise about China). If Japan joins the Allies, it seems likely Nationalist China would restore its previous ties with Germany and the USSR, and align with the Axis. If a compromise between Japan and the Western powers proves impossible because of the China issue, Japan in all likelihood shall join the Axis, even with the Soviets in it.
The Polish government realizes it faces the hard choice of submitting to the ultimatum, or facing the terrible risk of a two-front war and the likely destruction of their state, even with possible Anglo-French help. If they submit, they have the chance of surviving by accepting vassallization to either totalitarian power (most likely Germany, as Romania did IOTL in similar circumstances, and as Hitler had previously offered) and possibly recovering part of their losses if and when the German-Soviet alliance of convenience falls apart.
Britain and France acknowledge the option of military action against Germany alone is no longer a realistic choice, politically or strategically. They may deem Poland and Eastern Europe at large beyond their help and throw it to the totalitarian wolves, fortify on the Rhine, and wait and hope for a German-Soviet clash. Alternatively, they may accept the very uphill task of fighting both Germany and Russia at once, and in all likelihood then activate Operation Pike (their contingency plan for bombing the Baku oilfields). In the latter case, the USSR almost surely retaliates by invading the Middle East. Of course, if Poland submits to the ultimatum, the Western powers have no reason for action, apart from intensifying their rearmament programs.
Therefore, what do you think Poland, Britain, and France shall most likely do?
In any case, I assume Italy shall almost surely stick to the alliance with Germany, even with the USSR as a third member. Mussolini was even more of an opportunist than Hitler, Italian fascists were just as able to swallow their ideologic scruples about an alliance of convenience with Russian communists as their German counterparts, and the practical (strategic, territorial, and economic) benefits of sticking to the Axis seem much bigger for Italy than anything Britain and France can realistically offer the Italians. After the Fall of France (even easier to accomplish in this scenario), it would be easy for Germany, Italy, and the USSR to cooperate to wipe the British entirely out of the Med and the Middle East, and there is little Britain can realistically do to stop them (at least until America joins the war and can mobilize its potential), all the way from Gibraltar (quite likely Spain and Vichy France would opportunistically join the super-Axis as co-belligerants ITTL) to the Indus.
On the other hand, there may be a genuine chance Japan accepts the offer of an alliance with the Western powers, if the latter can swallow the price of giving the Japanese somewhat of a blank check about China. The Japanese have their own long-standing ambitions on the Russian Far East, and have been recently fighting a border war with the USSR. Japan in the Allied coalition would be very distasteful for America, but likely not to the point of the Americans denying its support to the coalition (in all likelihood, however, Tokyo would only get a trickle of L-L, unless it accepts an onerous compromise about China). If Japan joins the Allies, it seems likely Nationalist China would restore its previous ties with Germany and the USSR, and align with the Axis. If a compromise between Japan and the Western powers proves impossible because of the China issue, Japan in all likelihood shall join the Axis, even with the Soviets in it.
