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Post by futurist on Oct 18, 2018 1:58:44 GMT
If China liberalizes at some future point in time, are the Uyghurs going to try seceding from China? If so, will China actually let them do this? If so, what would an independent Uyghur state look like?
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Post by steve59 on Oct 18, 2018 9:08:32 GMT
If China liberalizes at some future point in time, are the Uyghurs going to try seceding from China? If so, will China actually let them do this? If so, what would an independent Uyghur state look like?
It would probably require a total collapse of Chinese power, plus possibly some 'assistance' from another power given the large number of military forces and Han settlers in the region. Which might just mean that the Uighur state simply has a different overlord as the helper would most likely be Russia.
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Post by futurist on Oct 18, 2018 21:19:40 GMT
If China liberalizes at some future point in time, are the Uyghurs going to try seceding from China? If so, will China actually let them do this? If so, what would an independent Uyghur state look like?
It would probably require a total collapse of Chinese power, plus possibly some 'assistance' from another power given the large number of military forces and Han settlers in the region. Which might just mean that the Uighur state simply has a different overlord as the helper would most likely be Russia.
Russia won't stab China in the back. Its relations with China are too close for that to happen. Plus, stabbing China in the back while its relations with the West are still ice-cold (which is probably going to be for a while) is going to be absolutely idiotic for Russia. As for the demographics, I was thinking of only having the Uyghur-majority parts of Xinjiang in the west actually attempted to secede. Eastern Xinjiang would remain a part of China even if western Xinjiang does successfully break off.
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Post by steve59 on Oct 19, 2018 0:35:00 GMT
It would probably require a total collapse of Chinese power, plus possibly some 'assistance' from another power given the large number of military forces and Han settlers in the region. Which might just mean that the Uighur state simply has a different overlord as the helper would most likely be Russia.
Russia won't stab China in the back. Its relations with China are too close for that to happen. Plus, stabbing China in the back while its relations with the West are still ice-cold (which is probably going to be for a while) is going to be absolutely idiotic for Russia. As for the demographics, I was thinking of only having the Uyghur-majority parts of Xinjiang in the west actually attempted to secede. Eastern Xinjiang would remain a part of China even if western Xinjiang does successfully break off.
Such a move would seem stupid for Russia at the moment but Putin isn't exactly known for his logic and long term thinking. If China was in the sort of serious chaos that would allow such an independence movement to have any chance he might be tempted to try something.
Plus in terms of reality China is the major threat to Russia because of its economic success, the very long common border and the outstanding disputes over said border and long standing Chinese claims. If Putin wasn't such an idiot he would have realised that a long while ago.
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Post by futurist on Oct 23, 2018 22:41:41 GMT
Russia won't stab China in the back. Its relations with China are too close for that to happen. Plus, stabbing China in the back while its relations with the West are still ice-cold (which is probably going to be for a while) is going to be absolutely idiotic for Russia. As for the demographics, I was thinking of only having the Uyghur-majority parts of Xinjiang in the west actually attempted to secede. Eastern Xinjiang would remain a part of China even if western Xinjiang does successfully break off.
1. Such a move would seem stupid for Russia at the moment but Putin isn't exactly known for his logic and long term thinking. If China was in the sort of serious chaos that would allow such an independence movement to have any chance he might be tempted to try something.
2. Plus in terms of reality China is the major threat to Russia because of its economic success, the very long common border and the outstanding disputes over said border and long standing Chinese claims. If Putin wasn't such an idiot he would have realised that a long while ago.
1. It's possible but still very risky since in such a scenario Russia would be estranged from both the West and China. Plus, I don't think that the Uyghur territories have much to offer Russia. Also, would Russia actually be willing to engage in nuclear war for the sake of the Uyghurs if China recovers and wants its lost territory back? 2. Actually, I don't think that China is particularly eager to acquire territory full of permafrost. Plus, in any case, if China wants to expand in the north, it would go for Mongolia first since Mongolia is much easier to capture (while Russia will engage in nuclear war with China if China invades its eastern territories, it's far less clear that Russia would engage in nuclear war with China for the sake of Mongolia).
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Post by steve59 on Oct 24, 2018 15:00:20 GMT
1. Such a move would seem stupid for Russia at the moment but Putin isn't exactly known for his logic and long term thinking. If China was in the sort of serious chaos that would allow such an independence movement to have any chance he might be tempted to try something.
2. Plus in terms of reality China is the major threat to Russia because of its economic success, the very long common border and the outstanding disputes over said border and long standing Chinese claims. If Putin wasn't such an idiot he would have realised that a long while ago.
1. It's possible but still very risky since in such a scenario Russia would be estranged from both the West and China. Plus, I don't think that the Uyghur territories have much to offer Russia. Also, would Russia actually be willing to engage in nuclear war for the sake of the Uyghurs if China recovers and wants its lost territory back? 2. Actually, I don't think that China is particularly eager to acquire territory full of permafrost. Plus, in any case, if China wants to expand in the north, it would go for Mongolia first since Mongolia is much easier to capture (while Russia will engage in nuclear war with China if China invades its eastern territories, it's far less clear that Russia would engage in nuclear war with China for the sake of Mongolia).
There's more than one way to gain control of territory and China has potentially millions of settlers and a lot of money. Also there a fair amount of reasonably decent land that the Chinese controlled as recently as 1860. Its not just permafrost.
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Post by futurist on Oct 26, 2018 23:43:07 GMT
1. It's possible but still very risky since in such a scenario Russia would be estranged from both the West and China. Plus, I don't think that the Uyghur territories have much to offer Russia. Also, would Russia actually be willing to engage in nuclear war for the sake of the Uyghurs if China recovers and wants its lost territory back? 2. Actually, I don't think that China is particularly eager to acquire territory full of permafrost. Plus, in any case, if China wants to expand in the north, it would go for Mongolia first since Mongolia is much easier to capture (while Russia will engage in nuclear war with China if China invades its eastern territories, it's far less clear that Russia would engage in nuclear war with China for the sake of Mongolia).
There's more than one way to gain control of territory and China has potentially millions of settlers and a lot of money. Also there a fair amount of reasonably decent land that the Chinese controlled as recently as 1860. Its not just permafrost. How exactly are the Chinese going to get control of this territory if Russia refuses to let them in and deports them if they nevertheless come in illegally?
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Post by steve59 on Oct 27, 2018 22:11:43 GMT
There's more than one way to gain control of territory and China has potentially millions of settlers and a lot of money. Also there a fair amount of reasonably decent land that the Chinese controlled as recently as 1860. Its not just permafrost. How exactly are the Chinese going to get control of this territory if Russia refuses to let them in and deports them if they nevertheless come in illegally?
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Post by steve59 on Oct 27, 2018 22:15:26 GMT
Its a very large thinly populated area with also Russia having a hell of a lot of corruption and I could see some officials being offered a carrot [money] and a stick [threat of possible violence against them and theirs to not oppose such movements. Or simply doing this on a huge scale with a provisional governor say.
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Post by futurist on Oct 28, 2018 7:39:30 GMT
Its a very large thinly populated area with also Russia having a hell of a lot of corruption and I could see some officials being offered a carrot [money] and a stick [threat of possible violence against them and theirs to not oppose such movements. Or simply doing this on a huge scale with a provisional governor say. I think that the Russian government would strongly object to such Chinese coercion and would immediately fire any Russian officials who make such deals with China, though.
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Post by steve59 on Oct 28, 2018 10:21:46 GMT
Its a very large thinly populated area with also Russia having a hell of a lot of corruption and I could see some officials being offered a carrot [money] and a stick [threat of possible violence against them and theirs to not oppose such movements. Or simply doing this on a huge scale with a provisional governor say. I think that the Russian government would strongly object to such Chinese coercion and would immediately fire any Russian officials who make such deals with China, though.
When their find out about it, which may be some time down the road. If that was accompanied by the region in question to have a plebiscite on independence then ask Beijing for recognition Russia could have to decide whether its going to risk a nuclear exchange. Depending on what's left of Russia after Putin's reign and how much China has developed that could be a difficult question.
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Post by futurist on Oct 28, 2018 21:51:50 GMT
I think that the Russian government would strongly object to such Chinese coercion and would immediately fire any Russian officials who make such deals with China, though.
When their find out about it, which may be some time down the road. If that was accompanied by the region in question to have a plebiscite on independence then ask Beijing for recognition Russia could have to decide whether its going to risk a nuclear exchange. Depending on what's left of Russia after Putin's reign and how much China has developed that could be a difficult question. I don't think that a lot of Chinese people are going to be able to sneak into Russia without being noticed, though. The locals will quickly begin complaining and then the Russian government will find out about this if it hasn't already done so.
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