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Post by futurist on Oct 27, 2018 0:16:30 GMT
What would Poland's foreign policy look like if it breaks away from Russia in a scenario where WWI never occurs?
FTR, Russian Tsar Nicholas II had problems even before WWI (ex.: the 1905 Revolution) and thus it's not out of the question that he would have still eventually been overthrown even without WWI--especially if he'll lose the confidence of the Russian military. If the Russian monarchy is still eventually overthrown in this TL, Poland will likely use this as an opportunity to break away from Russia.
In such a scenario, what would Poland's foreign policy have been?
For the record, I personally think that Poland would aim to ally with Russia and France as long as the new Russian government will be friendly towards Poland and not have any desire to re-subjugate it. Basically, Poland has much more to gain by allying with Russia and France than by allying with Germany and Austria-Hungary considering that most of the territories that it badly wants are a part of either Germany or Austria-Hungary. If the new Russian government is smart, it would avoid doing anything to anger Poland. (Also, there might not be a Bolshevik Revolution in Russia in this TL since the lack of WWI could ensure that the moderate socialists in Russia aren't discredited like they were in our TL.) If Russia turns hostile to Poland, though, then Poland will have no choice but to ally with Germany and Austria-Hungary--which will be a sad choice for Poland considering that it would have to renounce its claims to all Polish-majority territories under German and Austrian rule.
Thoughts?
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Post by steve59 on Oct 27, 2018 20:18:39 GMT
What would Poland's foreign policy look like if it breaks away from Russia in a scenario where WWI never occurs? FTR, Russian Tsar Nicholas II had problems even before WWI (ex.: the 1905 Revolution) and thus it's not out of the question that he would have still eventually been overthrown even without WWI--especially if he'll lose the confidence of the Russian military. If the Russian monarchy is still eventually overthrown in this TL, Poland will likely use this as an opportunity to break away from Russia. In such a scenario, what would Poland's foreign policy have been? For the record, I personally think that Poland would aim to ally with Russia and France as long as the new Russian government will be friendly towards Poland and not have any desire to re-subjugate it. Basically, Poland has much more to gain by allying with Russia and France than by allying with Germany and Austria-Hungary considering that most of the territories that it badly wants are a part of either Germany or Austria-Hungary. If the new Russian government is smart, it would avoid doing anything to anger Poland. (Also, there might not be a Bolshevik Revolution in Russia in this TL since the lack of WWI could ensure that the moderate socialists in Russia aren't discredited like they were in our TL.) If Russia turns hostile to Poland, though, then Poland will have no choice but to ally with Germany and Austria-Hungary--which will be a sad choice for Poland considering that it would have to renounce its claims to all Polish-majority territories under German and Austrian rule. Thoughts?
Sounds pretty accurate. Of course a lot depends on the circumstances but with Poland's precarious position that might be the best bet. I did consider it seeking some sort of neutral status, like Belgium but then we know how that worked out for them and in the event of a general war I can't see Poland's neutrality being respected.
If Russia was hostile then one option which might moderate relations between Poland and the rest of the CPs could be what was being suggested in WWI OTL. That Austria gives up Galicia to Poland in return for it accepting an Hapsburg monarch. It would very probably have to given up on claims to the German lands however.
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Post by futurist on Oct 27, 2018 20:40:42 GMT
What would Poland's foreign policy look like if it breaks away from Russia in a scenario where WWI never occurs? FTR, Russian Tsar Nicholas II had problems even before WWI (ex.: the 1905 Revolution) and thus it's not out of the question that he would have still eventually been overthrown even without WWI--especially if he'll lose the confidence of the Russian military. If the Russian monarchy is still eventually overthrown in this TL, Poland will likely use this as an opportunity to break away from Russia. In such a scenario, what would Poland's foreign policy have been? For the record, I personally think that Poland would aim to ally with Russia and France as long as the new Russian government will be friendly towards Poland and not have any desire to re-subjugate it. Basically, Poland has much more to gain by allying with Russia and France than by allying with Germany and Austria-Hungary considering that most of the territories that it badly wants are a part of either Germany or Austria-Hungary. If the new Russian government is smart, it would avoid doing anything to anger Poland. (Also, there might not be a Bolshevik Revolution in Russia in this TL since the lack of WWI could ensure that the moderate socialists in Russia aren't discredited like they were in our TL.) If Russia turns hostile to Poland, though, then Poland will have no choice but to ally with Germany and Austria-Hungary--which will be a sad choice for Poland considering that it would have to renounce its claims to all Polish-majority territories under German and Austrian rule. Thoughts?
Sounds pretty accurate. Of course a lot depends on the circumstances but with Poland's precarious position that might be the best bet. I did consider it seeking some sort of neutral status, like Belgium but then we know how that worked out for them and in the event of a general war I can't see Poland's neutrality being respected.
If Russia was hostile then one option which might moderate relations between Poland and the rest of the CPs could be what was being suggested in WWI OTL. That Austria gives up Galicia to Poland in return for it accepting an Hapsburg monarch. It would very probably have to given up on claims to the German lands however. A neutral status is possible but probably unlikely. After all, Russia would be unlikely to respect Poland's neutral status in a future war since it would only have a very short border with Germany and thus would need to invade Poland so that it could more effectively fight Germany. Plus, neutrality on Poland's part could mean that Russia would be unwilling to give Poland various German and Austrian territories in the event of a Russian victory in a future Great War. As for having Austria give up Galicia to Poland in exchange for Poland accepting a Hapsburg monarch (in the event of Russian hostility towards Poland, that is), I suspect that this is unlikely because the Ukrainians in Galicia will be unlikely to go along with this. Of course, one could only give Poland western Galicia and leave eastern Galicia within Austria-Hungary--though it (and Bukovina as well) would likely have to have a separate status since it would no longer be connected to the rest of Austria. Of course, another solution would be for Poland to outright join Austria-Hungary. In such a scenario, A-H might create a Polish monarchy within its territory. This would allow Poland to unite with the Polish-majority parts of Austria-Hungary (specifically western Galicia) while also giving Poland access to a vast market as well as military protection from Austria-Hungary. Plus, such a move on Poland's part could appeal to Poles who adore the idea of an Intermarium since an Austria-Hungary with Poland inside of it could be viewed as a mini-Intermarium.
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