What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

[futurist]

What is the largest size that a non-Nazi Germany can realistically become? (I'm specifically excluding the Nazis here given their propensity to engage in genocide, mass murder, and mass ethnic cleansing/mass expulsions.)

Note: I am excluding German puppet states from my calculation here. Rather, I am only talking about direct German annexations here. Also, I am obviously thinking of granting German citizenship to all of the residents of the annexed territories if they are not expelled and not move away from these territories.

Anyway, here are my own thoughts on this:

Germany can try annexing more French territory in either 1871 or in the 1910s if it manages to win WWI in the West. Specifically, I am thinking of Belfort and the rest of Lorraine here--including iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy. I also suppose that Germany could try annexing parts of Belgium--such as the Liege region--though this might be harder for Germany to get away with.

In the East, Germany can probably outright annex the Polish Border Strip, the Baltic states, and Belarus if it wants to get extremely ambitious. Unlike Ukraine and the rest of Poland, these territories have a low population density and thus could theoretically be annexed by an uber-expansionist Germany even if settling Germans in these territories afterwards is going to be extremely difficult (of course, this could change if Germany is able to keep control of these territories for hundreds of years, but what are the odds of a non-Nazi Germany actually successfully pulling this off?).

Also, if Austria-Hungary still implodes after the end of World War I and Germany's leadership isn't too afraid of putting a lot of additional Catholics into their empire, Germany can probably annex German Austria, the Sudetenland, Czechia, the Burgenland, Pressburg (Bratislava), and Slovenia.

Anyway, I think that this is it. I honestly don't see additional German territorial expansion unless Germany is outright willing to annex its colonies--and even then, Namibia is probably the only German colony with a sufficiently small population for Germany to actually successfully pull this off.

What are your thoughts on this?

[futurist]

I forgot to mention Luxembourg! Germany can probably annex Luxembourg if it wins WWI in the West.

[eurofed]

I largely agree with your assessment, except for a caveat: annexing Belarus w/o owning Poland at large would be very awkward for Germany strategically and economically, so I don't see it ever being seriously contemplated. As it concerns maximum feasible territorial gains for non-Nazi Germany, I have a scenario proposal. Let's say ITTL Belgium does not form as a result of the Belgian Revolution, but the Southern Netherlands are partitioned between France (Wallonia), the Netherlands (Flanders), and Prussia (Luxemburg). Greater Germany and Italy form, and the Habsburg Empire collapses, because of successful 1848 revolutions. Russia is kept busy by revolutionary unrest in Finland, the Baltic, Poland, and the Danubian Principalities, and cannot interfere. Germany takes Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, South Tyrol, and Carniola. Italy takes Lombardy, Venetia, Trento, Kustenland, and coastal Dalmatia. Hungary becomes independent in a confederal bond with Croatia. Switzerland fails to evolve into a modern federal state because of a different outcome of the Sunderbund War. It becomes increasingly dysfunctional, and eventually gets partitioned by its neighbors (northern-central areas to Germany, Ticino and Grisons to Italy, Romandy to France). An equivalent of the Franco-Prussian War eventually takes place (casus belli may vary), only with Italy and the Netherlands taking the side of the Germans. The Dutch join the Germans and the Italians because they feel threatened by French ambitions on the Low Countries. Germany takes Alsace, roughly half of Lorraine, and eastern Wallonia. Italy takes (or keeps) Nice, Savoy, Corsica, and the French Riviera. Romandy is partitioned between Germany and Italy. German nationalism takes a pan-German character, and the relationship between the Germans and the Dutch grows closer because of the alliance bond. Later an equivalent of WWI takes place, the Central Powers (Germany, Italy, Hungary-Croatia, the Netherlands) defeat France and its allies. Because of the conflict, the Germans demand, and the Dutch reluctantly accept, to merge the Netherlands with the German Empire (either as a Lander with a special autonomy statute, or as a confederation).

As it concerns TTL German territorial gains in the East, probably there wouldn't be many, since a liberal Germany that arises as a result of a successful 1848 revolution would likely prefer to set up independent allies/clients from the non-Russian territories it carves from the Russian Empire, Brest-Litovsk-style, if Russia is defeated in TTL equivalent of a Pan-European Crimean War and/or WWI. It is quite possible TTL Germany takes the Polish Border Strip and forms a confederation with the United Baltic Duchy, compensating the Poles with Lithuania and chunks of Belarus and Ukraine. But it is just as likely they decide to partition Posen with the Poles (there were proposals for this during the 1848 revolution) and let the UBD become an independent ally/client, like Poland-Lithuania, Finland, Belarus, and Ukraine. TTL Hungary-Croatia may well absorb Romania by expanding its confederation to include the Danubian Principalities (there were proposals for this during the 1848 revolution) and Bessarabia.

If Germany and Italy form earlier because of successful 1848 Revolutions, it is very likely they would be much more successful competitors of Britain and France in the colonial game than OTL, and cause the almost complete displacement of second-tier powers such as Spain and Portugal (and Belgium as well,although it does not exist in the TL I described), although as you say their gains would likely stay economic, not settlement colonies (with a few likely exceptions such as Italy's 'Fourth Shore'). An outcome I find especially likely for TTL Africa includes: Germany gets Morocco, Kamerun, Gabon, French-Belgian Congo, Zambia, and Tanzania (plus of course the Dutch colonies when the union with the Netherlands takes place); Italy takes Tunisia, Libya, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and Uganda; France gets Algeria, French West Africa, and Madagascar; Britain takes Egypt (quite possibly other chunks of the Ottoman Empire if it collapses earlier than OTL), South Africa, Namibia, Bechuanaland, S Rhodesia, and Mozambico. Outcome in Southeast Asia may vary, although it is quite possible Germany and Italy take a bigger chunk of the area than OTL. Theoretically speaking, if the World Wars do not occur or their blood bill turns out to be much lesser for Europe than OTL, it is quite possible the chunks of Africa that are least populated, most valuable, and/or most viable to large-scale European settlement and cultural assimilation of the (most fair-skinned) natives and mixed-blood people get bound to Europe for all time. This might mean Morocco, Angola, and Tanzania for Germany; Tunisia, Libya, and Uganda-Kenya for Italy; Algeria for France; and Greater South Africa for Britain.

[futurist]

Jan 7, 2019 15:53:08 GMT eurofed said:

I largely agree with your assessment, except for a caveat: annexing Belarus w/o owning Poland at large would be very awkward for Germany strategically and economically, so I don't see it ever being seriously contemplated. As it concerns maximum feasible territorial gains for non-Nazi Germany, I have a scenario proposal. Let's say ITTL Belgium does not form as a result of the Belgian Revolution, but the Southern Netherlands are partitioned between France (Wallonia), the Netherlands (Flanders), and Prussia (Luxemburg). Greater Germany and Italy form, and the Habsburg Empire collapses, because of successful 1848 revolutions. Russia is kept busy by revolutionary unrest in Finland, the Baltic, Poland, and the Danubian Principalities, and cannot interfere. Germany takes Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, South Tyrol, and Carniola. Italy takes Lombardy, Venetia, Trento, Kustenland, and coastal Dalmatia. Hungary becomes independent in a confederal bond with Croatia. Switzerland fails to evolve into a modern federal state because of a different outcome of the Sunderbund War. It becomes increasingly dysfunctional, and eventually gets partitioned by its neighbors (northern-central areas to Germany, Ticino and Grisons to Italy, Romandy to France). An equivalent of the Franco-Prussian War eventually takes place (casus belli may vary), only with Italy and the Netherlands taking the side of the Germans. The Dutch join the Germans and the Italians because they feel threatened by French ambitions on the Low Countries. Germany takes Alsace, roughly half of Lorraine, and eastern Wallonia. Italy takes (or keeps) Nice, Savoy, Corsica, and the French Riviera. Romandy is partitioned between Germany and Italy. German nationalism takes a pan-German character, and the relationship between the Germans and the Dutch grows closer because of the alliance bond. Later an equivalent of WWI takes place, the Central Powers (Germany, Italy, Hungary-Croatia, the Netherlands) defeat France and its allies. Because of the conflict, the Germans demand, and the Dutch reluctantly accept, to merge the Netherlands with the German Empire (either as a Lander with a special autonomy statute, or as a confederation).

As it concerns TTL German territorial gains in the East, probably there wouldn't be many, since a liberal Germany that arises as a result of a successful 1848 revolution would likely prefer to set up independent allies/clients from the non-Russian territories it carves from the Russian Empire, Brest-Litovsk-style, if Russia is defeated in TTL equivalent of a Pan-European Crimean War and/or WWI. It is quite possible TTL Germany takes the Polish Border Strip and forms a confederation with the United Baltic Duchy, compensating the Poles with Lithuania and chunks of Belarus and Ukraine. But it is just as likely they decide to partition Posen with the Poles (there were proposals for this during the 1848 revolution) and let the UBD become an independent ally/client, like Poland-Lithuania, Finland, Belarus, and Ukraine. TTL Hungary-Croatia may well absorb Romania by expanding its confederation to include the Danubian Principalities (there were proposals for this during the 1848 revolution) and Bessarabia.

If Germany and Italy form earlier because of successful 1848 Revolutions, it is very likely they would be much more successful competitors of Britain and France in the colonial game than OTL, and cause the almost complete displacement of second-tier powers such as Spain and Portugal (and Belgium as well,although it does not exist in the TL I described), although as you say their gains would likely stay economic, not settlement colonies (with a few likely exceptions such as Italy's 'Fourth Shore'). An outcome I find especially likely for TTL Africa includes: Germany gets Morocco, Kamerun, Gabon, French-Belgian Congo, Zambia, and Tanzania (plus of course the Dutch colonies when the union with the Netherlands takes place); Italy takes Tunisia, Libya, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and Uganda; France gets Algeria, French West Africa, and Madagascar; Britain takes Egypt (quite possibly other chunks of the Ottoman Empire if it collapses earlier than OTL), South Africa, Namibia, Bechuanaland, S Rhodesia, and Mozambico. Outcome in Southeast Asia may vary, although it is quite possible Germany and Italy take a bigger chunk of the area than OTL. Theoretically speaking, if the World Wars do not occur or their blood bill turns out to be much lesser for Europe than OTL, it is quite possible the chunks of Africa that are least populated, most valuable, and/or most viable to large-scale European settlement and cultural assimilation of the (most fair-skinned) natives and mixed-blood people get bound to Europe for all time. This might mean Morocco, Angola, and Tanzania for Germany; Tunisia, Libya, and Uganda-Kenya for Italy; Algeria for France; and Greater South Africa for Britain.

Actually, I'd say that annexing Belarus without also annexing Poland (which has a much larger population and is thus not really suitable for a German annexation) is perfectly doable. Basically, Germany has East Prussia as a gateway to the Baltics and Belarus and thus doesn't need to annex Poland. East Prussia has more than enough land for suitable travel, transportation, and communication between Germany and the Baltics/Belarus. Also, if Germany wants more strategic depth in the East, then it can also annex the parts of Russia that are located north of Belarus and south of St. Petersburg. Annexing the Baltic states is already going to result in an extremely massive salient for Germany and annexing Belarus really isn't going to make this salient much worse. If anything, it would give this salient more strategic depth.

BTW, the only part of Congress Poland that I would want to annex is Suwalki Oblast due to its strategic location. I personally wouldn't even care much for the Polish Border Strip since it would involve ethnic cleansing and I strongly don't want to do that.

Your first two paragraphs here generally sound realistic. That said, though, I am skeptical that Hungary would actually want to annex Romania and Bessarabia since its Hungarian majority was already extremely thin even without these territories. Also, any attempts to give Ukrainian territory to Poland is probably going to severely piss off the Ukrainians.

Also, where your and my proposals differ is that my own proposals focus on living space (albeit living space which Germany is unlikely to make good use of unless it actually controls these territories for hundreds of years) while your proposals focus on regathering the various Germanic peoples and putting them inside one Reich. Theoretically, your and my proposals can be combined. Indeed, I wonder if much more Germans would have been willing to settle in the East had Germany acquired these territories in the mid-19th century instead of in World War I.

As for colonies, one would think that Eastern Europe would be more attractive as colonies for Germany than Africa would, no? Italy would probably still be in the colonial game, but I'm less sure about Germany. In any case, though, Islam is going to be a big issue with any proposals to annex Muslim colonies to the motherland (for instance, in regards to Algeria, would France actually want to give the vote to millions or tens of millions of Muslims?) and while the religion issue might be less salient for Christian African colonies, I fear that racism is going to be a big obstacle in regards to annexing these colonies to the motherland--especially if these colonies don't have a large European settler population. As for fair-skinned Sub-Saharan Africans, I don't think that there were very many of them. Please remember that AFAIK African-Americans sometimes have fair skin due to their partial European ancestry. In contrast, Blacks from Sub-Saharan Africa are unlikely to have much European ancestry unless there is a large European settler population for them to intermarry with.

Indeed, I stand by my own previous statement that I think that Namibia is the only African colony that Germany actually has a chance of permanently keeping.

[eurofed]

I tend to remain somewhat skeptical about this project of absorbing Belarus, the Baltic lands, and the Pskov Oblast in the German Empire while leaving Poland an independent ally/client, for various reasons: the land connection to Germany would be strategically awkward, and only viable if Germany absorbs the Baltic lands as well; Belarus was valuable, but not that valuable, the real choice bit of the European Russian lands was Ukraine, and for reasons of size and distance that would most likely be a independent client satellite, in a union with Poland, or a mix of both; not sure if the German elite can persuade enough settlers to make this colonization project viable; the project would be even more troublesome if TTL German leaders (and you as scenario author) entirely rule out use of population transfers and cultural assimilation (even if the Baltics and Belarusians can quite possibly be made content with a benevolent German rule, at least the Russians in the annexed lands are going to stay a hostile minority). However, if you really wish to pursue it in your scenario, I see no unmanageable problem to let it happen and you have my blessing to combine my ideas with yours.

As it concerns the Hungary-Romania issue, I concede my idea of post-1848 independent Hungary binding Old Romania in a confederation may look odd if one stays focused on OTL post-Ausgleich Hungarian politics and their anxiety to preserve the dominant Magyar character of the Kingdom by whatever means necessary. On the other hand, there are reasons to assume a liberal Hungary that arises from a successful 1848 revolution may turn out to be a little more tolerant for the multi-cultural character of the state than OTL, at least as long as the other nationalities do not prove openly hostile and disloyal. IOTL there were serious feelers between Hungarian and Wallachian revolutionaries to establish a Hungarian-Romanian confederation. Apparently both sides deemed this a better alternative than continued Russian or Ottoman control of the Danubian Principalities. IOTL this turned for naught because of Russian intervention in Hungary and Romania, but ITTL things may be different. Since TTL is built on the general trend of success of the 1848 revolutions and the states they create, I tend to assume Hungary would take a full liberal-democratic character and may find sufficient domestic stability through evolution into a two-tiered federal system: confederal autonomy for Croatia and the Danubian Principalities, a lesser degree of cultural autonomy and administrative devolution for minorities within the Kingdom of Hungary, even if the Magyars would in all likelihood dig their heels at political union of the Lands of St. Stephen. I think this system would make Hungary-Croatia-Romania significantly more stable and less repressive than the Habsburg and Ottoman empires, even if not exactly as stable as Germany or Italy. I agree once TTL CP are able to impose a Brest-Litovsk settlement on the former Russian space, setting up a Polish-Ukrainian border that pleases both sides would be a delicate balancing act. Perhaps the best available solution would be the restore the PLC in the form of a Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian confederation, even if this of course would have its drawbacks. 

As for how and why this situation would arise, I have devised the following event sequence for TTL Europe: the Belgian Revolution ends in partition of the Southern Netherlands; the 1831 Polish uprising is averted and occurs later as part of the 1848 revolution. The European reactionaries have their swan song with victory in the Sonderbund War that freezes Switzerland in its dysfunctional status quo and sends it on a death spiral. The 1848 revolutions triumph in Germany, Italy, Hungary-Croatia, and Scandinavia, leading to the rise of these nations as liberal democracies and federal unions. Russia is kept busy by uprisings in Finland, the Baltic, the PLC lands, and the Danubian Principalities. Although these insurrections ultimately fail, and Russia seizes control of Galicia, Moldavia, and Wallachia while putting them down, their sacrifice saves revolution elsewhere in Europe from Russian interference. The Schleswig-Holstein war ends with a German success and a compromise peace liveable for both sides (Holstein and most of Schleswig to Germany, northern Schleswig to Denmark). Nordic solidarity bred from Sweden supporting Denmark in the conflict, liberal revolution in both states, and the example of Germany and Italy foster the unification of Scandinavia. France turns out much like OTL, it messes a bit in the border territories of its neighbors but the conflict is limited and ends in a stalemate since all the European powers are in need of post-revolutionary stabilization. The conflict however creates lingering tensions between France and its neighbors. Russian seizure of Old Romania and penetration in the Balkans and the Middle East to exploit Ottoman weakness and the demise of Austria lead to an expanded equivalent of the Crimean War. Britain leads the charge, France goes along, the aborning bloc of the Central Powers (Germany, Italy, and Hungary-Croatia) and Scandinavia join for their own reasons. Forced to fight all of Europe, Russia is decisively defeated.

Scandinavia gets Finland and Latvia-Estonia (you may want to change this if you plan for German expansion in the Baltic). Poland-Lithuania becomes independent and joins the CP alliance as its fourth member (ditto as it concerns Lithuania and Belarus). German assistance for recovery of Polish-Lithuanian independence and willingness to partition Posen do a lot to reconcile the Poles with Germany, and make them content with their new geopolitical status. Hungary-Croatia annexes Wallachia, Moldavia, and Bessarabia, and sets up Old Romania as the third member state of its confederation. Much the same way as Poland, the experience of Russian and Ottoman rule and the CP being liberators from the same do a lot to make the Romanians content with their new status quo.

Resurgent tensions between France and the German-Italian alliance later cause an expanded equivalent of the Franco-Prussian War, with the Netherlands joining Germany and Italy since they fear French ambitions on their territory. Berlin and Rome secure the friendly neutrality of Russia by reversing their stance from the previous conflict and secretly pledging their support for Russian expansion against the Ottomans. Britain takes a neutral stance since they view the French as the aggressive troublemakers. France is crushed much like OTL, only worse and with more territorial losses at the peace table because of Italian and Dutch intervention. After defeat, civil war (expanded foreign invasion causes the Commune uprising to spread to more French cities before it is contained), and protracted Weimar-style political instability, it eventually evolves into an authoritarian revanchist regime (think a combination of reactionary Bourbon restoration, proto-fascism, and Boulangism). Either before or during the war, Switzerland suffers its final collapse and is partitioned. The resurgent Russians exploit the situation to attack Turkey and Persia with the support of the Serbs, Bulgarians, and Greeks. They reap a decisive victory with some effort. The Ottoman Empire collapses. The CP make a limited intervention in the Balkans and the Med to protect their interests. 

The British are outraged and threaten war but it is a bluff since they lack allies: the CP opportunistically support Russia and France is eager for a rematch but still too weak to fight. Therefore a compromise settlement is achieved that leads to the complete dismantlement of the fallen Ottoman Empire. Britain seizes control of Egypt, Syria, and Iraq. Russia annexes eastern Anatolia and northwestern Iran, and turns Turkey and Persia into vassals. Germany takes Morocco. Italy seizes Tunisia, Libya, and Albania. H-C-R takes Hercegovina and part of Bosnia. Serbo-Bulgarian Yugoslavia forms as a tool of Russia to organize its sphere of influence. Greece gets Megali Idea borders. Palestine and Lebanon form a Jewish-Christian homeland under German-Italian protectorate. France gets nothing given its recent loss of status. Britain and resurgent France form the Entente alliance to contain German-Italian and Russian power. They may later co-opt Spain with the lure of economic benefits and territorial compensations kinda like it happened with OTL Italy.

At this point, I see an important fork in the TL which helps define the character of alt-WWI and the role of Russia in it. Of course, any variant of the World Wars was far from inevitable but for the purposes of this scenario we may treat it as bound to happen since it fulfills the purpose of the exercise. In one variant, latent rivalry between the CP and Russia in Eastern Europe and the Middle East resurfaces and drives Russia to join the Entente much like OTL despite Great Game antagonism with Britain in Asia. Naval and colonial competition between Britain and the German-Italian alliance fuels Anglo-CP antagonism. Proto-fascist France has a raging revanchist complex against Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. *Yugoslavia has expansionist ambitions on the territories of H-C-R. Alt-WWI becomes strategically similar to a mix of OTL World Wars with a few important differences. Germany is liberal, reinforced by the choice bits of Cisleithania, and supported by a ring of valuable allies at the center of the continent. Italy takes the place of A-H in the CP with somewhat more strength (thanks to early unification and industrialization, liberal character, close links with Germany, and rise to major great power status), much more domestic stability, and zero loyalty issues. H-C-R is far from perfect but less instable than its Habsburg predecessor thanks to its liberal and federal character. The Poles, Romanians, and Dutch are reliable CP members. Turkey and the Bulgarian half of *Yugoslavia are in the Entente but the former is a broken shadow of its former self. Greece joins the CP given the opposite alignment of its regional rivals. Spain takes the place of Italy in the Entente. France exchanged gain of Wallonia with loss of more eastern border territories and let the shock of defeat lead it down the dark path of the Axis powers. The Western Front is entirely fought on a continous line from the Atlantic to the Med between open enemies, with no violation of the neutrality of third parties. Russia and the Eastern front start from 1939 borders. The CP have a good chance of looking in the eyes of neutrals like the democratic good guys fighting a defensive war against proto-fascist France and authoritarian Russia. Given the circumstances, there is pretty much zero chance of the USA coming to save the Entente's butt. America almost surely stays a business-minded true neutral and a popcon-eating viewer rooting for the CP team unless possibly British intransigent and heavy-handed management of the blockade angers the Yankee into pulling a second 1812. Japan is a wild card, depending on how the alliance game turns out it might join either side. This variant in all likelihood is preferable for the purposes of this thread since it offers Germany and its allies better opportunities of territorial and sphere of influence expansion in the lands of their enemies.

The likely alternative is the CP and Russia extending their alliance of convenience that manifested during the Russo-Turkish war. That conflict itself may blossom into a proto-WWI if Britain, France, and Spain in combination (mistakenly) feel strong enough to fight then and there to prevent a full success of the Russians despite the apparent CP-Russia alignment. Alternatively the same kind of conflict may occur later, although this is less likely: the Entente is likely to lose either variant of the war, but even more so against a German-Russian-Italian alliance, barring strong support by America which is not going to happen ITTL, and might even be scared into passivity. Revanchist France can only lose so many wars to the CP before the pissed-off victors strip her great-power status and shackle it with a 1945-style peace. Defeated Britain is going to get its influence expelled from the continent and decline of its imperial power seriously accelerated.

Of course, if Russia turns out to be an enemy, the victorious CP are going to impose a Brest-Litovsk peace settlement on it and replace its sphere of influence in the Balkans and the Middle East with an expansion of their own. The result for Western Eurasia would likely be broadly similar to the geopolitical effects of a victorious Axis, only w/o all the nazifascist nastiness. Or if you wish, like the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, only with Germany and Italy in the place of the USA and the EU. ITTL the Ottoman Empire was already dead and would not be revived. One political setup I think would be quite fitting for TTL post-Ottoman Middle East is: Megali Idea Greece; rump Turkey; Greater Armenia-Assyria (first a Russian territory, then independent if and when Russia loses the war); Greater Azerbaijan (ditto); rump Persia; Hashemite Greater Syria (Syria, Iraq, and Kuwait, minus the non-Arab areas); reborn Kingdom of Jerusalem (Palestine and Lebanon; kinda like Israel but a homeland for Middle Eastern and European immigrant Jews and Christians); Rashidi Arabia (Arabian Peninsula); Egypt; Italian Tunisia and Libya; French Algeria (may or may not be eventually partitioned between the CP victors when France suffers final defeat); German Morocco. The Saudis get wiped out in the post-Ottoman reorganization of the region, and good riddance.

On second thoughts, I more or less agree with the other points you make.