|
Post by orvillethird on Dec 31, 2015 2:13:57 GMT
There's a nice article in Harper's November 2014 issue about Hillary Clinton, and how, on so many issues, she's more right-wing than most people think.
BTW, Pataki dropped out not long ago.
|
|
|
Post by AYC on Jan 1, 2016 1:21:02 GMT
|
|
|
Post by orvillethird on Jan 1, 2016 3:18:20 GMT
It is interesting, though I do think the option most likely to be taken is "Doubling down." Incidentally, I now know where two of the candidates' campaign headquarters in my town are. Ben Carson's is in a strip mall in under a mile's walking distance from me. His campaign probably got it comparatively cheaply. Donald Trump's is in a ground-floor space in a building downtown, right across from the Brooks Brothers' store (The store is only two years old, at most).
|
|
|
Post by AYC on Jan 3, 2016 12:04:25 GMT
|
|
|
Post by orvillethird on Jan 4, 2016 2:08:01 GMT
Hopefully Sanders is trying to organize his contributors into a GOTV and campaign machine, which can't be done as easily with big SuperPac donations and wealthy bundlers, like Clinton. Besides, who needs paid staff when you can get free volunteers? (In the same vein, I can see Carson doing well despite his comparative lack of funds. Paul likely would have done the same had he stayed true to his dad's views and gotten his dad's base.)
|
|
|
Post by Jasen777 on Jan 4, 2016 5:41:36 GMT
Hopefully Sanders is trying to organize his contributors into a GOTV and campaign machine, which can't be done as easily with big SuperPac donations and wealthy bundlers, like Clinton. Besides, who needs paid staff when you can get free volunteers? (In the same vein, I can see Carson doing well despite his comparative lack of funds. Paul likely would have done the same had he stayed true to his dad's views and gotten his dad's base.) Carson has lost a significant part of his evangelical base to Cruz though.
|
|
|
Post by AYC on Jan 4, 2016 9:33:59 GMT
Hopefully Sanders is trying to organize his contributors into a GOTV and campaign machine, which can't be done as easily with big SuperPac donations and wealthy bundlers, like Clinton. Besides, who needs paid staff when you can get free volunteers? (In the same vein, I can see Carson doing well despite his comparative lack of funds. Paul likely would have done the same had he stayed true to his dad's views and gotten his dad's base.) Carson has lost a significant part of his evangelical base to Cruz though. Ben Carson's trajectory is what Trump's would have been if this were an ordinary election. I fully expected Trump to go the Herman Cain route; his continual ability to say or do literally anything he wants and still be the frontrunner is baffling to me.
|
|
|
Post by Jasen777 on Jan 4, 2016 16:19:20 GMT
Well the hope is that Trump is this cycle's Giuliani, that is, someone doing well in national polls based on name recognition and media coverage but will flop when it comes to actual voting. Though Trump is actually trying to win early states so he can't flop as bad as Rudy. Also both New York liberals Speaking of which - To Win In Iowa Or New Hampshire, It May Be Better To Poll Worse NationallyBut it also seems that there's a notable segment of voters that show up in Republican polling that don't care much about standard conservative positions (like tax cuts for the rich and gutting social security) and supports Trump because of the insulting things he says, not despite of them.
|
|
|
Post by tardis218 on Jan 5, 2016 1:39:28 GMT
Welp, Donald Trump relased his first campaign ad. As suspected, it's horrible. Oh, and the part of the video with all those immigrants, that is not on the border, it was filmed in Morocco. Trump replied with this: "The use of this footage was intentional and selected to demonstrate the severe impact of an open border and the very real threat Americans face if we do not immediately build a wall and stop illegal immigration. The biased mainstream media doesn't understand, but Americans who want to protect their jobs and families do." 11/10...11/10
|
|
|
Post by Jasen777 on Jan 5, 2016 2:38:41 GMT
Here's how I see it, unless something shakes things up, Cruz is going to win Iowa. The question is if that hurts Trump enough that someone else wins New Hampshire (if Trump does win New Hampshire then we could get an extended Trump vs. Cruz). If Rubio or Christie wins the establishment has a champion, if it's Cruz then he might be unstoppable.
|
|
|
Post by Rhand on Jan 5, 2016 8:13:08 GMT
Cruz will likely take the nomination. He is a candidate that appeals to everyone: outside the establishment, devoutly religious, staunchly conservative, etc.
He's a solid candidate and the guy I'm voting for. I'm concerned if he can beat Clinton though. We got an uphill battle to win in November, and I would honestly give better odds to Trump, I think he has the best shot of beating Clinton just because he's a total wild card.
|
|
|
Post by orvillethird on Jan 5, 2016 15:08:09 GMT
Cruz will likely take the nomination. He is a candidate that appeals to everyone: outside the establishment, devoutly religious, staunchly conservative, etc. He's a solid candidate and the guy I'm voting for. I'm concerned if he can beat Clinton though. We got an uphill battle to win in November, and I would honestly give better odds to Trump, I think he has the best shot of beating Clinton just because he's a total wild card. I'm not sure who would be the "best" from my point of view to get the Republican nod. (Of course, I likely would not vote for any of them, barring both a major miracle and a "Road to Damascus" moment, in which Rand Paul sticks to his dad's views.) Cruz is "better" than Trump in some aspects, but he's still down there below Clinton, and I have no plans to vote for Clinton unless there are no third party candidates on the ballot. As for Trump, you are forgetting one reason why he is so popular- his trying to keep himself in the spotlight. Cruz did not have a TV show and isn't a billionaire with his own hotel chain and airline. That's the thing that gives him the best shot to beat Clinton.
|
|
|
Post by AYC on Jan 5, 2016 23:23:34 GMT
Welp, Donald Trump relased his first campaign ad. As suspected, it's horrible. Oh, and the part of the video with all those immigrants, that is not on the border, it was filmed in Morocco. Trump replied with this: "The use of this footage was intentional and selected to demonstrate the severe impact of an open border and the very real threat Americans face if we do not immediately build a wall and stop illegal immigration. The biased mainstream media doesn't understand, but Americans who want to protect their jobs and families do." 11/10...11/10 I'm so sick of the "mainstream media" card. Fox News is the largest cable news network in America, IT IS THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA. Cruz will likely take the nomination. He is a candidate that appeals to everyone: outside the establishment, devoutly religious, staunchly conservative, etc. He's a solid candidate and the guy I'm voting for. I'm concerned if he can beat Clinton though. We got an uphill battle to win in November, and I would honestly give better odds to Trump, I think he has the best shot of beating Clinton just because he's a total wild card. Frankly I think you want this election to be a lot more competitive than it actually will be. Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders are both odds-on favorites to beat Trump, who will probably do better than political science says he should. The real story will be the lower-level races and the marijuana referendums (2016 will likely be a huge year for legalization).
|
|
|
Post by MinnesotaNationalist on Jan 6, 2016 0:31:29 GMT
Is it just me, or did that ad look more like anti-American propaganda as released by ISIS/anyone from the Muslim world rather than an actual campaign ad?
|
|
|
Post by Jasen777 on Jan 6, 2016 0:46:38 GMT
Any hot takes on Obama's speech?
|
|
|
Post by Rhand on Jan 6, 2016 4:11:29 GMT
Frankly I think you want this election to be a lot more competitive than it actually will be. Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders are both odds-on favorites to beat Trump, who will probably do better than political science says he should. The real story will be the lower-level races and the marijuana referendums (2016 will likely be a huge year for legalization). Sadly, I think you may be right. Clinton definitely has the edge here. Regardless, I won't give up hope before the battle even starts. It's been a surprising election already.
|
|
|
Post by tardis218 on Jan 7, 2016 1:20:52 GMT
Is it just me, or did that ad look more like anti-American propaganda as released by ISIS/anyone from the Muslim world rather than an actual campaign ad? Heh. I also love the line "That's why he's calling for a temporary shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until we can figure out what's going on." that pretty much shows that even Donald Trump knows he has no idea what he is doing. That basically says "We don't know the hell we're doing, let's just not let any Muslims enter the US because they bad"
|
|
|
Post by orvillethird on Jan 7, 2016 3:15:15 GMT
In other news: -Nikki Haley has been picked to respond to Obama's State of the Union. Her star has increased after having to deal both with natural disasters (the recent floods) and terrorism (the shooting at Emmanuel AME). I'm not sure how well she will do, or if she'll do things beyond the standard talking points. -Gary Johnson is running for the Libertarian nomination again. I voted for him in the 2012 election, and don't regret it. (Though I voted for him as he was the best chance for a third-party candidate I could trust to win my state.) If Hillary gets the Democratic nod and anyone but Rand Paul gets the Republican nod, I may vote for him, depending on who else is running.
|
|
|
Post by AYC on Jan 7, 2016 23:41:12 GMT
My political science professor today: "If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, the field of political science will blow up. Not [just] because it would be a bad thing, but because political science is not equipped for that."
Really goes to show you how much conventional wisdom 2016 is throwing out the window.
|
|
|
Post by orvillethird on Jan 8, 2016 1:04:41 GMT
|
|